Bet on the World Cup using output from the same algorithms that got it wrong this time over 20 World Cup events, and you are likely to still come out way ahead.

Bet on the World Cup using output from the same algorithms that got it wrong this time over 20 World Cup events, and you are likely to still come out way ahead. Real-world events have chaotic properties to them, but overall these predictions tend to be quite accurate. Casinos allow you to bet on games like roulette or blackjack because they have a mathematical expectation - a prediction - that they will come out ahead overall. Would you say that this prediction is wrong because individual players sometimes win a lot of money? You can’t look to a single event that differs from a prediction and use that as a basis for an argument that the entire model is flawed.