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I wonder how execs at Twitter feel when they read research like this from outside Twitter. It’s common knowledge that Twitter has a huge sockpuppet problem, and

I wonder how execs at Twitter feel when they read research like this from outside Twitter. It’s common knowledge that Twitter has a huge sockpuppet problem, and it’s an open secret that the “problem” is actually beneficial to the price of TWTR. Ignoring that conflict of interest is easy, if the problem remains in the shadows and nobody has a solution to it. But there are dozens of research papers from the past year that could all be applied to wiping out the sockpuppet population on Twitter. Yet Twitter does nothing. How long can they sustain this strategy when research increasingly demonstrates Twitter is neglecting real options to address the problem?

throwawaymath 8y ago
Why is the sockpuppet problem good for Twitter’s stock price?
- chatmasta 8y ago
  Well, since you asked, here's some "throwaway math" for you. ;) a) Although Twitter tries to estimate the number of "bot accounts" in its QE reports, it has no accountability in calculating the percentages. Therefore they can use it as a tool to manipulate DAU. If real DAU goes down, just change the bot numbers to make it look like DAU is up. b) Sockpuppets generate activity from real humans. The whole point is that they push agendas, sow discord, etc. Sockpuppets wouldn't work without victims interacting with them. Therefore more sockpuppets = more human activity = more ad revenue & higher metrics for stock price c) My speculation is that the sockpuppet problem is extremely understated, and an accurate estimate would amount to a higher percentage of Twitter's reported userbase than previously admitted. Therefore, accurately reporting the percentage would require Twitter to negatively adjust their real user numbers, which drive the stock price. The central problem is that for every 1% of users Twitter defines as sockpuppets, it must lose 1% of "real" users. Therefore once twitter makes a single estimate of bot percentages (which they have done), increasing that percentage is dangerous for their stock price because it means decreasing the percentage of real users, a key metric in the stock price.
JamesMcMinn 8y ago
You may not be aware, but Twitter's share price took a rather large hit yesterday specifically because they banned 10s of millions of bot accounts. They have no issues letting the public know how many accounts they are removing. Having said that, their developer ToS are quite clear that they don't want researchers or developers to: > aggregate Twitter user metrics such as total number of active users, accounts, total number of Periscope Broadcast views, user engagements or account engagements.
stronglikedan 8y ago
> sockpuppet problem Ah, I long for the good old days when sockpuppets weren't a "problem" but a "feature", and a useful one at that.

throwawaymath 8y ago

Why is the sockpuppet problem good for Twitter’s stock price?

chatmasta 8y ago
Well, since you asked, here's some "throwaway math" for you. ;) a) Although Twitter tries to estimate the number of "bot accounts" in its QE reports, it has no accountability in calculating the percentages. Therefore they can use it as a tool to manipulate DAU. If real DAU goes down, just change the bot numbers to make it look like DAU is up. b) Sockpuppets generate activity from real humans. The whole point is that they push agendas, sow discord, etc. Sockpuppets wouldn't work without victims interacting with them. Therefore more sockpuppets = more human activity = more ad revenue & higher metrics for stock price c) My speculation is that the sockpuppet problem is extremely understated, and an accurate estimate would amount to a higher percentage of Twitter's reported userbase than previously admitted. Therefore, accurately reporting the percentage would require Twitter to negatively adjust their real user numbers, which drive the stock price. The central problem is that for every 1% of users Twitter defines as sockpuppets, it must lose 1% of "real" users. Therefore once twitter makes a single estimate of bot percentages (which they have done), increasing that percentage is dangerous for their stock price because it means decreasing the percentage of real users, a key metric in the stock price.

JamesMcMinn 8y ago

You may not be aware, but Twitter's share price took a rather large hit yesterday specifically because they banned 10s of millions of bot accounts. They have no issues letting the public know how many accounts they are removing. Having said that, their developer ToS are quite clear that they don't want researchers or developers to: > aggregate Twitter user metrics such as total number of active users, accounts, total number of Periscope Broadcast views, user engagements or account engagements.

stronglikedan 8y ago

> sockpuppet problem Ah, I long for the good old days when sockpuppets weren't a "problem" but a "feature", and a useful one at that.