5 ms·

Elon Musk sub 'impractical', won't be used

codeulike 8y ago
It might have been useful. A week ago they were talking about the boys being trapped for months. He'll get stick of course, but people suggested he might be able to help and that's why he got involved.
- emptyfile 8y ago
  Pretty sure most divers agreed it was way too dangerous. If there's barely space in the cave for an adult diver then there's no space for a submarine.
  - codeulike 8y ago
    Well that's what I thought too. But he came up with it based on conversations with one of the divers. I think initially people though the Boring Co would be able to do something but that wasn't feasible so this is what they brainstormed. It's not a terrible idea by any means, it's just not needed this time.
  - codeulike 8y ago
    ... no space for a submarine. Recent tweet from Musk on this subject: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016686032907931656 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016686032907931656 Moreover, based on extensive cave video review & discussion with several divers who know journey, SpaceX engineering is absolutely certain that mini-sub can do entire journey
- codeulike 8y ago
  update: A tweet from Elon Musk (in response to a BBC article similar to the OP) showing his correspondance with one of the dive team about the subs development. As of a few days ago they were urging Musk to continue with the project because they though it might be needed. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016684366083190785 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016684366083190785 Also this is interesting: Jiradette Kerdsri: I agree with @elonmusk , actually my team was asked from Thai authorities to design a capsule similar to his prototype. But our design is still on the paper while he already has a finish field prototype. Really admire your inspiration https://twitter.com/Jiradett/status/1016690284619599873 https://twitter.com/Jiradett/status/1016690284619599873
satysin 8y ago
The people who like Musk will say he is doing good trying to help even if they can't/won't use what he offers. The people who dislike Musk will say he is using this awful event for PR and such.
- Lambdanaut 8y ago
  As it is with every politically charged event. The truth in this case, and most similar cases, is "it's probabaly a little bit of both". Its a joke to think elon is the pure saint many hope him to be. It's also a joke to think that he's just a rich selfish big-egoed businessman.
lingz 8y ago
On one hand it's nice to see the valley: 'let's solve this' attitude. On the other hand, it's common to see them blinded by hubris, resulting in problem solving approaches divorced from reality.
- antris 8y ago
  Weird to see comments like this. Elon Musk was asked to help, he agreed to come there and now people talk about "hubris" as if he had tried to force his help on them? Can't famous people even help kids stuck in a cave without someone criticizing them for it?
  - akhatri_aus 8y ago
    It depends on what he wanted out of it. It was quite obvious nothing of the size of that submarine could fit in that narrow portion of the cave. That begs the question on whether it was more for publicity or it was actually intended to be used. Would it be realistic to see that submarine in Thailand or on some video camera in an LA pool?
    - antris 8y ago
      Are you an expert on cave diving and rescue or where does this analysis on what is obvious and what isn't comes from?
      - ofrzeta 8y ago
        It's obvious from the pictures of the submarine. When the press reports state that the cave is so narrow in places that you need to take off the scuba to get through, obviously the submarine that has a bigger diameter than a diver with a scuba won't pass.
        antris 8y ago
        Again. This armchair analysis cannot decide whether a solution is fit for the job or not. You don't know everything that's happening at the site.
kraig911 8y ago
Well I feel embarrassed for him. I genuinely think he wanted to help. I guess it's like automated cars maybe? It'd save million's of lives but we're so stuck on validating that it might not come in time.
- jamesholden 8y ago
  He did nothing to be embarrassed about. He tried hard to quickly help out, using his own resources, asking nothing in return. They started getting kids out suddenly (after they already started on the sub), to take advantage of the lower water levels. I see nothing here that would embarrass him. He tried to do a kind thing. His speed about it wasn't anything he had control over. To be honest though, they built that thing fast as hell.
baxter001 8y ago
Just at the basic level of what the experience for these boys would have been like, sealed in a metal cylinder and towed through the cave system for hours - it seems a greater feat of endurance for them than being lead out - particularly with how traumatised by darkness and claustrophobia they must already be.
- DecoPerson 8y ago
  The boys were extremely weak and unhealthy. The trek was demanding and risky for experienced, healthy and prepared divers; there was a lot of doubt as to whether the boys would be able to make such an arduous journey.
jf- 8y ago
I’m torn on whether this was a publicity stunt or not. If it was, it’s an amazingly transparent one. That almost makes me think it was sincere, but absurd. I don’t see how Musk et al score points either way.
- Angostura 8y ago
  I think it's sincere and well intentioned 'here's a difficult, interesting problem, lets put my big brain to work on out-of-the-box solutions'. There is touch of hubris, perhaps.
ofrzeta 8y ago
From the pictures I don't see how the "submarine" could have worked, when they say the cave is so narrow in places that you need to take off the scuba to get through. Also probably not cylindrical.
- Numberwang 8y ago
  Actually it is kind of cylindrical: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3qySXPJ2WE&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3qySXPJ2WE&feature=youtu.be
  - ofrzeta 8y ago
    The cave, not the submarine.
robryan 8y ago
It is possible to both do good and generate positive PR. If he was getting in the way or come uninvited would be one thing, but other than that nothing wrong with an extra option. Rich and well known people can’t win really. They get criticised for helping and also criticised for not bailing out bad government policy.
- wiz21c 8y ago
  >>> Rich and well known people can’t win really. They can, they just need to no interact outside their bubble, make sure they pay their taxes in a fair way (because, you know, the Panama is 100% legal), and do not show up when their not asked to. Musk is great at building cool toys, but I'm not sure he's great at making humanity better. (hint: we don't need more battery, we don't need to go to Mars, we don't need more cars on the roads, and some people sure don't need a submarine). Now if Elon wants to go in the cave and bring oxygen bottle to those who need it, or explain the kids to never give up, well, that'd be nice.
  - atombender 8y ago
    We absolutely do need batteries, though. Energy storage on a large scale -- e.g. Tesla's projects in Australia and Puerto Rico -- is going to be hugely important for an all-renewable electric future. Their cars aren't that important.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      The cars are hugely important. The demand for those is what is driving down the per unit cost of batteries. Without the cars, utility scale storage wouldn’t be financially feasible.
- satysin 8y ago
  My thoughts as well. Celebrity businessmen like Musk can't really win because no matter what they do there are people who dislike them, rightly or wrongly, because of other things they have done. Personally I don't think Elon was doing this as a PR stunt. I believe he saw it was a very difficult problem with life and death time constraints and he has a bunch of the world's best engineers that build things for extreme environments.
ofrzeta 8y ago
Literal money quote: "Anuphong said the two spoke about helping the remaining people out of the cave. He said Prayuth encouraged Musk to invest in the country’s Eastern Economic Corridor. Musk then said he would return to Thailand in the future."
spdy 8y ago
Musk is a "technology can save problems"-guy and his team got something done in a short amount of time. With all his involvements in the past years he likes to tackle complicated technical problems (SpaceX) or use modern technology to disrupt a segment (Tesla/Powergrid/Hyperloop).
jonsen 8y ago
What procedure do they actually use? I'd guess SEALs allready have standard procedures for transpoting persons under water in difficult circumstances. Secret procedures probably, so we might never know exactly how they do it.
crumbshot 8y ago
This is the best outcome for Musk, as he gets the positive PR (and bolsters his supposed "Iron Man" image), but bears none of the risk of his half-baked idea failing and killing someone. More generally, one should be wary of capitalists claiming they can solve all of your problems. They're likely just in it for themselves.
jamesholden 8y ago
Some comments I have read throughout the internet, tweets, etc, suggest that he was too slow to react and that they had over half the kids out already etc. Reminder that he started this when they were expecting them to be stuck there possibly MONTHS. The rescue in action now was executed quite quickly and surprisingly (to me), as they had said it could be a long term ordeal. The sub too, was designed it to fit in the narrowest parts of the tunnel as well. I think it's admirable he quickly got this put together and tested, and flew it over to them as fast as he could. Likewise, he was respectful and didn't take too much of their time or resources when visiting. I think he tried to do the right thing. He gave them an option that they didn't have previously. If it's not used, so be it. If they had no other options, then they would have another.
- s2g 8y ago
  > and didn't take too much of their time or resources when visiting No, why would he. He got what he wanted already.
nichtich 8y ago
I just couldn't understand why he thinks the container should be made of hard metal. Sure maybe the current equipment like dry suit + full face mask has limitations. But shouldn't the natural path be building on top of that? Why is a hard long object that can't bend to fit through some narrow gaps, don't have power and don't use the power of the human it contains, and much heavier, be their go to solution?
- mehrdadn 8y ago
  Remember he didn't have the luxury of time here. He'd have surely designed something better if he had the chance to design, manufacture, and test it from the ground-up, but I doubt there was enough time to do such a thing. He probably tried to do the best with whatever he had at the time, on the off chance it'd still be useful. So he took the pre-designed parts of his Falcon rocket that could be useful and tried to use those. Also see this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17496684 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17496684
  - ofrzeta 8y ago
    This is another reason why people like me are skeptic about that whole "submarine" thing. Taking "pre-designed parts of his Falcon rocket" is ... also a bit ridiculous. If I were do design a rescue capsule getting a stainless steel pipe and welding a flange to it or anything would be the least of my worries. You can get stuff like that off-the-shelf with same-day delivery. But surely a submarine made from Falcon parts makes for a nice myth or headline.
thisisit 8y ago
Interestingly I can't find the 'impractical' quote. Just found this one: > His equipment is technologically complex and advanced, but we cannot bring it into the cave for this mission
- NVRM 8y ago
  A simpler one: «we cannot bring it into the cave»
senectus1 8y ago
local Australian media is saying that the report that the kids cant swim was wildly inaccurate, they even showed photos of the kids swimming with their friends. The "sub" was never really needed... but good on him anyway.
aplummer 8y ago
Although I see the hubris point of view people here have, if oxygen dipped or some other catastrophy and someone fell unconscious, they could have been in a situation where this contraption was Useful. People like to jump to black and white but maybe it’s shades of grey, some hubris and also a chance of being genuinely helpful.

It might have been useful. A week ago they were talking about the boys being trapped for months. He'll get stick of course, but people suggested he might be able to help and that's why he got involved.

emptyfile 8y ago
Pretty sure most divers agreed it was way too dangerous. If there's barely space in the cave for an adult diver then there's no space for a submarine.
- codeulike 8y ago
  Well that's what I thought too. But he came up with it based on conversations with one of the divers. I think initially people though the Boring Co would be able to do something but that wasn't feasible so this is what they brainstormed. It's not a terrible idea by any means, it's just not needed this time.
- codeulike 8y ago
  ... no space for a submarine. Recent tweet from Musk on this subject: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016686032907931656 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016686032907931656 Moreover, based on extensive cave video review & discussion with several divers who know journey, SpaceX engineering is absolutely certain that mini-sub can do entire journey
codeulike 8y ago
update: A tweet from Elon Musk (in response to a BBC article similar to the OP) showing his correspondance with one of the dive team about the subs development. As of a few days ago they were urging Musk to continue with the project because they though it might be needed. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016684366083190785 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1016684366083190785 Also this is interesting: Jiradette Kerdsri: I agree with @elonmusk , actually my team was asked from Thai authorities to design a capsule similar to his prototype. But our design is still on the paper while he already has a finish field prototype. Really admire your inspiration https://twitter.com/Jiradett/status/1016690284619599873 https://twitter.com/Jiradett/status/1016690284619599873

satysin 8y ago

The people who like Musk will say he is doing good trying to help even if they can't/won't use what he offers. The people who dislike Musk will say he is using this awful event for PR and such.

Lambdanaut 8y ago
As it is with every politically charged event. The truth in this case, and most similar cases, is "it's probabaly a little bit of both". Its a joke to think elon is the pure saint many hope him to be. It's also a joke to think that he's just a rich selfish big-egoed businessman.

lingz 8y ago

On one hand it's nice to see the valley: 'let's solve this' attitude. On the other hand, it's common to see them blinded by hubris, resulting in problem solving approaches divorced from reality.

antris 8y ago
Weird to see comments like this. Elon Musk was asked to help, he agreed to come there and now people talk about "hubris" as if he had tried to force his help on them? Can't famous people even help kids stuck in a cave without someone criticizing them for it?
- akhatri_aus 8y ago
  It depends on what he wanted out of it. It was quite obvious nothing of the size of that submarine could fit in that narrow portion of the cave. That begs the question on whether it was more for publicity or it was actually intended to be used. Would it be realistic to see that submarine in Thailand or on some video camera in an LA pool?
  - antris 8y ago
    Are you an expert on cave diving and rescue or where does this analysis on what is obvious and what isn't comes from?
    - ofrzeta 8y ago
      It's obvious from the pictures of the submarine. When the press reports state that the cave is so narrow in places that you need to take off the scuba to get through, obviously the submarine that has a bigger diameter than a diver with a scuba won't pass.
      - antris 8y ago
        Again. This armchair analysis cannot decide whether a solution is fit for the job or not. You don't know everything that's happening at the site.

kraig911 8y ago

Well I feel embarrassed for him. I genuinely think he wanted to help. I guess it's like automated cars maybe? It'd save million's of lives but we're so stuck on validating that it might not come in time.

jamesholden 8y ago
He did nothing to be embarrassed about. He tried hard to quickly help out, using his own resources, asking nothing in return. They started getting kids out suddenly (after they already started on the sub), to take advantage of the lower water levels. I see nothing here that would embarrass him. He tried to do a kind thing. His speed about it wasn't anything he had control over. To be honest though, they built that thing fast as hell.

baxter001 8y ago

Just at the basic level of what the experience for these boys would have been like, sealed in a metal cylinder and towed through the cave system for hours - it seems a greater feat of endurance for them than being lead out - particularly with how traumatised by darkness and claustrophobia they must already be.

DecoPerson 8y ago
The boys were extremely weak and unhealthy. The trek was demanding and risky for experienced, healthy and prepared divers; there was a lot of doubt as to whether the boys would be able to make such an arduous journey.

jf- 8y ago

I’m torn on whether this was a publicity stunt or not. If it was, it’s an amazingly transparent one. That almost makes me think it was sincere, but absurd. I don’t see how Musk et al score points either way.

Angostura 8y ago
I think it's sincere and well intentioned 'here's a difficult, interesting problem, lets put my big brain to work on out-of-the-box solutions'. There is touch of hubris, perhaps.

ofrzeta 8y ago

From the pictures I don't see how the "submarine" could have worked, when they say the cave is so narrow in places that you need to take off the scuba to get through. Also probably not cylindrical.

Numberwang 8y ago
Actually it is kind of cylindrical: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3qySXPJ2WE&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3qySXPJ2WE&feature=youtu.be
- ofrzeta 8y ago
  The cave, not the submarine.

robryan 8y ago

It is possible to both do good and generate positive PR. If he was getting in the way or come uninvited would be one thing, but other than that nothing wrong with an extra option. Rich and well known people can’t win really. They get criticised for helping and also criticised for not bailing out bad government policy.

wiz21c 8y ago
>>> Rich and well known people can’t win really. They can, they just need to no interact outside their bubble, make sure they pay their taxes in a fair way (because, you know, the Panama is 100% legal), and do not show up when their not asked to. Musk is great at building cool toys, but I'm not sure he's great at making humanity better. (hint: we don't need more battery, we don't need to go to Mars, we don't need more cars on the roads, and some people sure don't need a submarine). Now if Elon wants to go in the cave and bring oxygen bottle to those who need it, or explain the kids to never give up, well, that'd be nice.
- atombender 8y ago
  We absolutely do need batteries, though. Energy storage on a large scale -- e.g. Tesla's projects in Australia and Puerto Rico -- is going to be hugely important for an all-renewable electric future. Their cars aren't that important.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    The cars are hugely important. The demand for those is what is driving down the per unit cost of batteries. Without the cars, utility scale storage wouldn’t be financially feasible.
satysin 8y ago
My thoughts as well. Celebrity businessmen like Musk can't really win because no matter what they do there are people who dislike them, rightly or wrongly, because of other things they have done. Personally I don't think Elon was doing this as a PR stunt. I believe he saw it was a very difficult problem with life and death time constraints and he has a bunch of the world's best engineers that build things for extreme environments.

ofrzeta 8y ago

Literal money quote: "Anuphong said the two spoke about helping the remaining people out of the cave. He said Prayuth encouraged Musk to invest in the country’s Eastern Economic Corridor. Musk then said he would return to Thailand in the future."

spdy 8y ago

Musk is a "technology can save problems"-guy and his team got something done in a short amount of time. With all his involvements in the past years he likes to tackle complicated technical problems (SpaceX) or use modern technology to disrupt a segment (Tesla/Powergrid/Hyperloop).

jonsen 8y ago

What procedure do they actually use? I'd guess SEALs allready have standard procedures for transpoting persons under water in difficult circumstances. Secret procedures probably, so we might never know exactly how they do it.

crumbshot 8y ago

This is the best outcome for Musk, as he gets the positive PR (and bolsters his supposed "Iron Man" image), but bears none of the risk of his half-baked idea failing and killing someone. More generally, one should be wary of capitalists claiming they can solve all of your problems. They're likely just in it for themselves.

jamesholden 8y ago

Some comments I have read throughout the internet, tweets, etc, suggest that he was too slow to react and that they had over half the kids out already etc. Reminder that he started this when they were expecting them to be stuck there possibly MONTHS. The rescue in action now was executed quite quickly and surprisingly (to me), as they had said it could be a long term ordeal. The sub too, was designed it to fit in the narrowest parts of the tunnel as well. I think it's admirable he quickly got this put together and tested, and flew it over to them as fast as he could. Likewise, he was respectful and didn't take too much of their time or resources when visiting. I think he tried to do the right thing. He gave them an option that they didn't have previously. If it's not used, so be it. If they had no other options, then they would have another.

s2g 8y ago
> and didn't take too much of their time or resources when visiting No, why would he. He got what he wanted already.

nichtich 8y ago

I just couldn't understand why he thinks the container should be made of hard metal. Sure maybe the current equipment like dry suit + full face mask has limitations. But shouldn't the natural path be building on top of that? Why is a hard long object that can't bend to fit through some narrow gaps, don't have power and don't use the power of the human it contains, and much heavier, be their go to solution?

mehrdadn 8y ago
Remember he didn't have the luxury of time here. He'd have surely designed something better if he had the chance to design, manufacture, and test it from the ground-up, but I doubt there was enough time to do such a thing. He probably tried to do the best with whatever he had at the time, on the off chance it'd still be useful. So he took the pre-designed parts of his Falcon rocket that could be useful and tried to use those. Also see this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17496684 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17496684
- ofrzeta 8y ago
  This is another reason why people like me are skeptic about that whole "submarine" thing. Taking "pre-designed parts of his Falcon rocket" is ... also a bit ridiculous. If I were do design a rescue capsule getting a stainless steel pipe and welding a flange to it or anything would be the least of my worries. You can get stuff like that off-the-shelf with same-day delivery. But surely a submarine made from Falcon parts makes for a nice myth or headline.

thisisit 8y ago

Interestingly I can't find the 'impractical' quote. Just found this one: > His equipment is technologically complex and advanced, but we cannot bring it into the cave for this mission

NVRM 8y ago
A simpler one: «we cannot bring it into the cave»

senectus1 8y ago

local Australian media is saying that the report that the kids cant swim was wildly inaccurate, they even showed photos of the kids swimming with their friends. The "sub" was never really needed... but good on him anyway.

aplummer 8y ago

Although I see the hubris point of view people here have, if oxygen dipped or some other catastrophy and someone fell unconscious, they could have been in a situation where this contraption was Useful. People like to jump to black and white but maybe it’s shades of grey, some hubris and also a chance of being genuinely helpful.