3 ms·

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

• firebones 16y ago
  The only black swan connection I see is Taleb's point about "the graveyard of silent evidence". Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. We didn't see all the planes returning that had catastrophic failures in the known bullet-holed areas and never returned.
  • jayliew 16y ago
    Isn't that what the article is saying? "Don't forget the planes that didn't return", which is silent evidence because there's no evidence of its absence
  • revorad 16y ago
    "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" I think Eliezer Yudkowsky strongly disagrees - http://lesswrong.com/lw/ih/absence_of_evidence_is_evidence_of_absence/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/ih/absence_of_evidence_is_evidence_o...