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Interesting Move. If you base your assumptions on Peter Zeihan and his Book the Absent Superpower, this would basically be China trying to get as much manufactu

Interesting Move. If you base your assumptions on Peter Zeihan and his Book the Absent Superpower, this would basically be China trying to get as much manufacturing out of the US as possible to force it to be a customer of Chinese goods indefinitely and secure access to the US consumers. In this case it obviously has also strategic value, as China can also securely supply his military with "clean" chips. I can only recommend watching one of his talks on YT for a different pov regarding world politics: https://youtu.be/feU7HT0x_qU https://youtu.be/feU7HT0x_qU

curiousgal 8y ago
Dumb question, who comes up with these smart policies/strategies?
- Roritharr 8y ago
  In China, the US or where? In the US the parties have Think Tanks and hordes of analysts covering these topics. From what I heard from people at the WEF in China there's committees that are created to work on those topics, staffed meritocratically.
  - jacquesm 8y ago
    > In the US the parties have Think Tanks and hordes of analysts covering these topics. You wouldn't say so. Most 'think tanks' seem to do what they can to give the party they work for the ammo they need to get the laws passed they desire, it rarely - if every - seems to be based in a genuine desire to move matters forward.
    - fladrif 8y ago
      I seem to be getting the same impression through all the news and 'research' that have come up over the years. I'd love to be proven wrong though.
    - TheSpiceIsLife 8y ago
      Move matters forward in the sense of implementing the party’s preferred ideology. Though it’s a far cry from the highest good of all conceded.
    - Roritharr 8y ago
      Well you only get the strategies that lead you to the scenarios you ordered. If your party winning the next election is on the list, the strategy will be influenced by that. Not sure if there's anyone that would pay a think tank for a strategy that achieves world peace by way of destroying the party that ordered it.
    - dv_dt 8y ago
      So, similar to the networks of think-tanks in the US funded by the powerful to push forward their agendas. Similar oligarchic structure, different labels on the system of record.
- jand 8y ago
  This fits their "Made in China 2025" [1] strategy. Side note: Chinese leadership seems a bit worried about reaching their self-proclaimed goals. [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025 [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/26/business/china-trade-censorship.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/26/business/china-trade-cens...
baybal2 8y ago
>Peter Zeihan Man, he cooks his digits and "facts" haard. What is his point? He pulls out his "revelations" just to advance himself as think tank academician/strategy consultant
- MaxBarraclough 8y ago
  Ironically, you've given us no facts by which to judge your position.
  - coldtea 8y ago
    Double ironic, since it was in response to a statement attributed to that analyst, that is itself self-evident and obvious.
- Roritharr 8y ago
  Might be the case, I stumbled upon him just two weeks ago but didn't find much critic of his work. I'd love to hear any.
  - dmichulke 8y ago
    FWIW, I watched one of his videos also just 2 weeks ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feU7HT0x_qU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feU7HT0x_qU He describes that the US is now in a position to isolate itself and will do so. While I largely would assume that's a valid prediction, I believe he forgot to mention one fact: The USD will (in the scenario he described) lose a lot of value (why should foreigners hold US debt or currency in his scenario?) to a degree that will lead to major calamities in the US. Those in turn affect the politicians in a way, that usually leads to scapegoating others (the Chinese, the Europeans, the Russians, ...) and possibly even to a distraction war (you know, show strength, punish the others who really deserve it, we all must stand together now, ...). That whole thing will be a major counterforce to the isolationism he predicts.
  - acdha 8y ago
    The history of his Wikipedia page is interesting – most of the content comes from two accounts flagged as sock puppets: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peter_Zeihan&action=history https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peter_Zeihan&acti...
coldtea 8y ago
>If you base your assumptions on Peter Zeihan and his Book the Absent Superpower, this would basically be China trying to get as much manufacturing out of the US as possible to force it to be a customer of Chinese goods indefinitely and secure access to the US consumers. Why wouldn't they want to do that? Isn't that what any self-respecting country, much less a superpower, would want to work towards to?
- Roritharr 8y ago
  If your domestic consumption base is large enough, you can ignore the issues that arise from being dependent on trade. Germany for example is so export-driven that if our exports drop for just 2% our economy will have major problems. There's nothing scarier than a trade-war for Germany.
  - coldtea 8y ago
    >If your domestic consumption base is large enough, you can ignore the issues that arise from being dependent on trade. Some of those issues -- don't you still depend on trade for stuff you don't have? And I don't mean Armanis or exotic foreign fruit, but stuff like raw materials for your industries and such?
    - Roritharr 8y ago
      That's where Geostrategy comes into play. Trade is an option, but not the only one. China is not really "trading" with Africa, are they? The continental US has pretty much anything needed, they'd probably need to eat a bit more environmental damage if they wanted to actually extract their rare earths for example.
      - coldtea 8y ago
        >China is not really "trading" with Africa, are they? Well, aren't they? Not goods for goods, but they pay with money and infrastructure for resources like minerals and so on. At least they are not having them as colonies, plundering, invading with their armies, or directly installing their own lackeys in power, yet -- as most Western powers have done in the 18th, 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries...
ssdd 8y ago
I believe is the latter point that's more important for China. First point is simply true for all nations that are trying to sell something.
igravious 8y ago
Okay, I watched the vid. The guy is an über-pessimist. Also, he seems very confident that the position the US has is unassailable, I think he's showing a bias to the place where he's from. I personally see Russia, China, India, and the EU forcing the US to disengage militarily around the world and I see the US-led unipolar world transforming into a multipolar world with more just global governance. Is this an optimistic view? Maybe. But there is a chance that because nations have got used to trading rather than warring that nations might actively protect trade routes rather than go to war over resources. If Steven Pinker's last two books are to be believed large-scale great power hot conflicts are a thing of the past. What I think Trump and Brexit show is that Europe got complacent about the military umbrella the US provides so I think the EU along with India and China and Russia are going to have to start policing the highways and seaways of world trade. That's a scenario pessimist Zeihan fails to imagine – that peace rumbles on and China and India rise to provide counterweights to the US, Russia, and the EU. Where the UK fits into all of this is anybody's guess – they may support the EU from a distance but they may fall even more into the sphere of US power. Anyway, on the strength of the vid, whatever Zeihan is selling I'm not buying. I think the world is far more complex than great plains, river basins, and demographics.
deleted 8y ago
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curiousgal 8y ago

Dumb question, who comes up with these smart policies/strategies?

Roritharr 8y ago
In China, the US or where? In the US the parties have Think Tanks and hordes of analysts covering these topics. From what I heard from people at the WEF in China there's committees that are created to work on those topics, staffed meritocratically.
- jacquesm 8y ago
  > In the US the parties have Think Tanks and hordes of analysts covering these topics. You wouldn't say so. Most 'think tanks' seem to do what they can to give the party they work for the ammo they need to get the laws passed they desire, it rarely - if every - seems to be based in a genuine desire to move matters forward.
  - fladrif 8y ago
    I seem to be getting the same impression through all the news and 'research' that have come up over the years. I'd love to be proven wrong though.
  - TheSpiceIsLife 8y ago
    Move matters forward in the sense of implementing the party’s preferred ideology. Though it’s a far cry from the highest good of all conceded.
  - Roritharr 8y ago
    Well you only get the strategies that lead you to the scenarios you ordered. If your party winning the next election is on the list, the strategy will be influenced by that. Not sure if there's anyone that would pay a think tank for a strategy that achieves world peace by way of destroying the party that ordered it.
  - dv_dt 8y ago
    So, similar to the networks of think-tanks in the US funded by the powerful to push forward their agendas. Similar oligarchic structure, different labels on the system of record.
jand 8y ago
This fits their "Made in China 2025" [1] strategy. Side note: Chinese leadership seems a bit worried about reaching their self-proclaimed goals. [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025 [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/26/business/china-trade-censorship.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/26/business/china-trade-cens...

baybal2 8y ago

>Peter Zeihan Man, he cooks his digits and "facts" haard. What is his point? He pulls out his "revelations" just to advance himself as think tank academician/strategy consultant

MaxBarraclough 8y ago
Ironically, you've given us no facts by which to judge your position.
- coldtea 8y ago
  Double ironic, since it was in response to a statement attributed to that analyst, that is itself self-evident and obvious.
Roritharr 8y ago
Might be the case, I stumbled upon him just two weeks ago but didn't find much critic of his work. I'd love to hear any.
- dmichulke 8y ago
  FWIW, I watched one of his videos also just 2 weeks ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feU7HT0x_qU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feU7HT0x_qU He describes that the US is now in a position to isolate itself and will do so. While I largely would assume that's a valid prediction, I believe he forgot to mention one fact: The USD will (in the scenario he described) lose a lot of value (why should foreigners hold US debt or currency in his scenario?) to a degree that will lead to major calamities in the US. Those in turn affect the politicians in a way, that usually leads to scapegoating others (the Chinese, the Europeans, the Russians, ...) and possibly even to a distraction war (you know, show strength, punish the others who really deserve it, we all must stand together now, ...). That whole thing will be a major counterforce to the isolationism he predicts.
- acdha 8y ago
  The history of his Wikipedia page is interesting – most of the content comes from two accounts flagged as sock puppets: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peter_Zeihan&action=history https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peter_Zeihan&acti...

coldtea 8y ago

>If you base your assumptions on Peter Zeihan and his Book the Absent Superpower, this would basically be China trying to get as much manufacturing out of the US as possible to force it to be a customer of Chinese goods indefinitely and secure access to the US consumers. Why wouldn't they want to do that? Isn't that what any self-respecting country, much less a superpower, would want to work towards to?

Roritharr 8y ago
If your domestic consumption base is large enough, you can ignore the issues that arise from being dependent on trade. Germany for example is so export-driven that if our exports drop for just 2% our economy will have major problems. There's nothing scarier than a trade-war for Germany.
- coldtea 8y ago
  >If your domestic consumption base is large enough, you can ignore the issues that arise from being dependent on trade. Some of those issues -- don't you still depend on trade for stuff you don't have? And I don't mean Armanis or exotic foreign fruit, but stuff like raw materials for your industries and such?
  - Roritharr 8y ago
    That's where Geostrategy comes into play. Trade is an option, but not the only one. China is not really "trading" with Africa, are they? The continental US has pretty much anything needed, they'd probably need to eat a bit more environmental damage if they wanted to actually extract their rare earths for example.
    - coldtea 8y ago
      >China is not really "trading" with Africa, are they? Well, aren't they? Not goods for goods, but they pay with money and infrastructure for resources like minerals and so on. At least they are not having them as colonies, plundering, invading with their armies, or directly installing their own lackeys in power, yet -- as most Western powers have done in the 18th, 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries...

ssdd 8y ago

I believe is the latter point that's more important for China. First point is simply true for all nations that are trying to sell something.

igravious 8y ago

Okay, I watched the vid. The guy is an über-pessimist. Also, he seems very confident that the position the US has is unassailable, I think he's showing a bias to the place where he's from. I personally see Russia, China, India, and the EU forcing the US to disengage militarily around the world and I see the US-led unipolar world transforming into a multipolar world with more just global governance. Is this an optimistic view? Maybe. But there is a chance that because nations have got used to trading rather than warring that nations might actively protect trade routes rather than go to war over resources. If Steven Pinker's last two books are to be believed large-scale great power hot conflicts are a thing of the past. What I think Trump and Brexit show is that Europe got complacent about the military umbrella the US provides so I think the EU along with India and China and Russia are going to have to start policing the highways and seaways of world trade. That's a scenario pessimist Zeihan fails to imagine – that peace rumbles on and China and India rise to provide counterweights to the US, Russia, and the EU. Where the UK fits into all of this is anybody's guess – they may support the EU from a distance but they may fall even more into the sphere of US power. Anyway, on the strength of the vid, whatever Zeihan is selling I'm not buying. I think the world is far more complex than great plains, river basins, and demographics.

deleted 8y ago

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