I did some research on this about 5 years ago at a former job. Unfortunately, I no longer have access to it, but the slope of the yield curve definitely had som

I did some research on this about 5 years ago at a former job. Unfortunately, I no longer have access to it, but the slope of the yield curve definitely had some interesting correlations with recessions. My (incredibly simplistic) reasoning for the correlation is that as short term interest rates rise (relative to long term interest rates), investors reallocate money away from risky assets (VC / PE / Small-Cap Equities) into short term investments (Money Markets, T-Bills). And since risky assets are what really drive our economic growth IMO, we start to see a real slowdown in economic output. While the curve has been flattening, it certainly is not flat (or inverted like it has before). I'm cautiously optimistic about the U.S. economy over the short term (1-3 years). After that, who knows. The Fed loves to revise data retroactively, so take the following graph with a grain of salt, but they do publish a 'Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread' [1] [1] https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capit...