An interesting, and quite a bizarre article. Thanks for pointing it out. It'll be interesting to find out how prevalent this indicator is. "This new indicator

An interesting, and quite a bizarre article. Thanks for pointing it out. It'll be interesting to find out how prevalent this indicator is. "This new indicator – rather than looking at the spread between longer-term yields of two years and 10 years – is looking at the spread between short-term yields. It’s “based on the spread between the current level of the federal funds rate and the expected federal funds rate several quarters ahead derived from futures market prices.” - The above is weird, this indicator completely flips the focus from 'long term' outlook, to the 'QoQ' outlook. That too derived from futures market prices. So if I can spin up some 'projects' (on a large-ish scale) that look like they'll do well for the next 6 months, I can make this graph look great. That's brilliant, we've just avoided a recession for the next 6 months. This is kind of the same model that corporations work on. But corporations have regulations enforced on them to keep them from running into everyone with a chainsaw (EPA comes to mind).