6 ms·

I can't help but feel the unemployment rate is so politicized that its facts and statistics will continue to be cherrypicked outside of reality.

by tmpz22 8y ago

asah 8y ago
sigh, and yet it's a key statistic needed to make decisions... improvements welcome!
- tim333 8y ago
  You can get a lot of detail and try to correct things, for instance see this graph from the wikipedia article https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9b/US_Unemployment_measures.svg/720px-US_Unemployment_measures.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9b/US...
- johannes1234321 8y ago
  it's extremely political. By the way you define it you can explain the need for some reforms or display how good you were.
refoundglory 8y ago
Nonsense. It’s a complicated set of information that people try and reduce to a single number. If you want to actually discuss it you need to start by learning that there are multiple official unemployment rates.
dev_dull 8y ago
Is it called the Wells Fargo effect now? When you optimize for a number, you'll get that number -- and it will deceive you.
- kornish 8y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law
- gdix 8y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell%27s_law
  - azernik 8y ago
    A special case of Goodhart's Law, as applied to public policy.
BadassFractal 8y ago
Very similar to the conversation around the gender wage gap as well.
- vivekd 8y ago
  Why was this downvoted? Women tend not to be crazy like men and thus are more likely to choose fulfiling careers that have lower pay, and seek more work life balance. When accounting for these factors, the existence of a gender pay gap becomes more questionable.
  - felix_nagaand 8y ago
    Citations needed
    - austincheney 8y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sealioning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sealioning Perhaps you can find the citation yourself and use it to counter the point you are replying to.
      - flyingcircus3 8y ago
        I don't follow the connection between your link and your comment. The user you replied to was, themselves, replying to another user making appeals to expertise about what "the literature" says, without actually supplying that literature. The burden of proof is on the person making the claims. What is freely asserted is freely dismissed. How would the user you replied to even go about searching for the citation, given so little information to go off of? The link you provided seems to allude to someone announcing their personal preference, which should not have to be defended. Assertions of what scientific literature have established as accepted wisdom are free game for questioning. That's what gives theories their fundamental efficacy, being able to withstand reasonable criticism.
        austincheney 8y ago
azernik 8y ago
The selection of this metric is not some recent political decision - the headline number has been U3 for a loooong time, and its definition was decided by the UN-affiliated International Labor Organization. It's not a good measure, but it's not a case of politicians picking a convenient metric, it's just a case of a bad metric being optimized for.
- bjourne 8y ago
  It is essentially the only metric available that is readily comparable between countries. Also, whatever definition you use for "real unemployment rate" that rate will be linearly dependent on the U-3 metric. If the U-3 number goes up, then "real unemployment" goes up and likewise if it goes down. Those who are interested can read the report to the 13th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (yes, there are conferences for everything) in which the unemployment definition which U-3 is based on was adpoted: http://www.ilo.org/public/libdoc/ilo/1982/82B09_438_engl.pdf http://www.ilo.org/public/libdoc/ilo/1982/82B09_438_engl.pdf
  - oculusthrift 8y ago
    So if i’m despondent and give up searching for a job then doesn’t U-3 unemployment go down and therefore wouldn’t using a definition that included the despondent not be linearly dependent?
    - indecisive_user 8y ago
      Though it seems hypothetically possible for what you're saying to happen, the data shows there's a linear relationship between many different definitions of unemployment throughout the years in the US. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/u-3-unemployment-rate-was-4-1-percent-in-december-2017-u-6-was-8-1-percent.htm?view_full https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/u-3-unemployment-rate-was-...
    - a3n 8y ago
      Yes, if your job is to track that analyze it and report on it. But U3 is fine for year-to-year readings of employment temperature for lay people like most of us.

I can't help but feel the unemployment rate is so politicized that its facts and statistics will continue to be cherrypicked outside of reality.

by tmpz22 8y ago

I can't help but feel the unemployment rate is so politicized that its facts and statistics will continue to be cherrypicked outside of reality.

asah 8y ago

sigh, and yet it's a key statistic needed to make decisions... improvements welcome!

tim333 8y ago
You can get a lot of detail and try to correct things, for instance see this graph from the wikipedia article https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9b/US_Unemployment_measures.svg/720px-US_Unemployment_measures.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9b/US...
johannes1234321 8y ago
it's extremely political. By the way you define it you can explain the need for some reforms or display how good you were.

refoundglory 8y ago

Nonsense. It’s a complicated set of information that people try and reduce to a single number. If you want to actually discuss it you need to start by learning that there are multiple official unemployment rates.

dev_dull 8y ago

Is it called the Wells Fargo effect now? When you optimize for a number, you'll get that number -- and it will deceive you.

kornish 8y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law
gdix 8y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell%27s_law
- azernik 8y ago
  A special case of Goodhart's Law, as applied to public policy.

BadassFractal 8y ago

Very similar to the conversation around the gender wage gap as well.

vivekd 8y ago
Why was this downvoted? Women tend not to be crazy like men and thus are more likely to choose fulfiling careers that have lower pay, and seek more work life balance. When accounting for these factors, the existence of a gender pay gap becomes more questionable.
- felix_nagaand 8y ago
  Citations needed
  - austincheney 8y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sealioning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sealioning Perhaps you can find the citation yourself and use it to counter the point you are replying to.
    - flyingcircus3 8y ago
      I don't follow the connection between your link and your comment. The user you replied to was, themselves, replying to another user making appeals to expertise about what "the literature" says, without actually supplying that literature. The burden of proof is on the person making the claims. What is freely asserted is freely dismissed. How would the user you replied to even go about searching for the citation, given so little information to go off of? The link you provided seems to allude to someone announcing their personal preference, which should not have to be defended. Assertions of what scientific literature have established as accepted wisdom are free game for questioning. That's what gives theories their fundamental efficacy, being able to withstand reasonable criticism.
      - austincheney 8y ago

azernik 8y ago

The selection of this metric is not some recent political decision - the headline number has been U3 for a loooong time, and its definition was decided by the UN-affiliated International Labor Organization. It's not a good measure, but it's not a case of politicians picking a convenient metric, it's just a case of a bad metric being optimized for.

bjourne 8y ago
It is essentially the only metric available that is readily comparable between countries. Also, whatever definition you use for "real unemployment rate" that rate will be linearly dependent on the U-3 metric. If the U-3 number goes up, then "real unemployment" goes up and likewise if it goes down. Those who are interested can read the report to the 13th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (yes, there are conferences for everything) in which the unemployment definition which U-3 is based on was adpoted: http://www.ilo.org/public/libdoc/ilo/1982/82B09_438_engl.pdf http://www.ilo.org/public/libdoc/ilo/1982/82B09_438_engl.pdf
- oculusthrift 8y ago
  So if i’m despondent and give up searching for a job then doesn’t U-3 unemployment go down and therefore wouldn’t using a definition that included the despondent not be linearly dependent?
  - indecisive_user 8y ago
    Though it seems hypothetically possible for what you're saying to happen, the data shows there's a linear relationship between many different definitions of unemployment throughout the years in the US. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/u-3-unemployment-rate-was-4-1-percent-in-december-2017-u-6-was-8-1-percent.htm?view_full https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/u-3-unemployment-rate-was-...
  - a3n 8y ago
    Yes, if your job is to track that analyze it and report on it. But U3 is fine for year-to-year readings of employment temperature for lay people like most of us.