3 ms·

People have been predicting an apocalypse in the short term for a long time now. Remember "The Shape of Things To Come", and "The Limits To Growth"?

petermcneeley 8y ago
I remember "Things to Come (1936)" which has a scientific Utopian message.
polotics 8y ago
The models from "limits to growth" have been disproved? This would be good news. Please post a link.
- sl-1 8y ago
  Last time I checked, the models presented in the "Limits to Growth" seem to be tracking the situation pretty well. Here is a paper about it (not mine) https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/2763500/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/00...
  - skookumchuck 8y ago
    It predicted running out of oil in 1992, for example. Besides, we will never run out of oil, just like we never ran out of wood nor whale oil.
- skookumchuck 8y ago
  Don't need a link, here's a quote directly from the book: "there will still be a desperate land shortage before the year 2000 if per capital and requirements and population growth rates remain as they are today." pg 60 It's 2018. Where's the desperate shortage? Also on HN today is talk about the new "vertical farms" that use far less resources than flat farms.
- beaconstudios 8y ago
  population growth has considerably decelerated, the model in limits to growth was based on continuing exponential population growth. Check out the population growth chart at https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth - the growth rate has plummeted drastically. We still have an estimated few billion more to add before the growth rate hits 0 but we won't be facing the kind of drastic overpopulation that limits to growth accounted for.
  - skookumchuck 8y ago
    The trouble with TLTG is it simply extrapolates existing trends. This makes for great headlines, but as any economist knows, any businessman knows, any investor knows, any educated person knows, that doesn't work. For example, an amoeba dividing at its maximum rate will form a ball larger than the earth in 24 hours.
    - beaconstudios 8y ago
      True, but at least the fact that population growth has been decelerating is a good sign.

petermcneeley 8y ago

I remember "Things to Come (1936)" which has a scientific Utopian message.

polotics 8y ago

The models from "limits to growth" have been disproved? This would be good news. Please post a link.

sl-1 8y ago
Last time I checked, the models presented in the "Limits to Growth" seem to be tracking the situation pretty well. Here is a paper about it (not mine) https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/2763500/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/00...
- skookumchuck 8y ago
  It predicted running out of oil in 1992, for example. Besides, we will never run out of oil, just like we never ran out of wood nor whale oil.
skookumchuck 8y ago
Don't need a link, here's a quote directly from the book: "there will still be a desperate land shortage before the year 2000 if per capital and requirements and population growth rates remain as they are today." pg 60 It's 2018. Where's the desperate shortage? Also on HN today is talk about the new "vertical farms" that use far less resources than flat farms.
beaconstudios 8y ago
population growth has considerably decelerated, the model in limits to growth was based on continuing exponential population growth. Check out the population growth chart at https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth - the growth rate has plummeted drastically. We still have an estimated few billion more to add before the growth rate hits 0 but we won't be facing the kind of drastic overpopulation that limits to growth accounted for.
- skookumchuck 8y ago
  The trouble with TLTG is it simply extrapolates existing trends. This makes for great headlines, but as any economist knows, any businessman knows, any investor knows, any educated person knows, that doesn't work. For example, an amoeba dividing at its maximum rate will form a ball larger than the earth in 24 hours.
  - beaconstudios 8y ago
    True, but at least the fact that population growth has been decelerating is a good sign.