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'It may be a hundred years before a computer beats humans at Go — maybe even longer,'' Piet Hut, an astrophysicist at the Institute for Advanced Study in New Je
by endymi0n 8y ago
'It may be a hundred years before a computer beats humans at Go — maybe even longer,'' Piet Hut, an astrophysicist at the Institute for Advanced Study in New Jersey, told the NYT in 1997. ''If a reasonably intelligent person learned to play Go, in a few months he could beat all existing computer programs. You don't have to be a Kasparov.''
- pluto9 8y agoIf you care to, you can dig up plenty of examples of people underestimating, overestimating, or correctly estimating the future capabilities of AI. Just because some guy in New Jersey underestimated it once doesn't mean we should accept AI hype uncritically, especially since much of that hype is driven by moneyed interests.
- mark-r 8y agoPeople are just bad at estimating in general. They tend to assume things will go in a straight line. You can see this most often when the curve is exponential, but asymptotic curves will throw people off too.
- frgtpsswrdlame 8y ago"With a further small percentage increase in cost we could reach the level of the baby Newton and better. We could then educate it and teach it its own construction and ask it to design a far more economical and larger machine. At this stage there would unquestionably be an explosive development in science, and it would be possible to let the machines tackle all the most difficult problems of science… For what it is worth, my guess of when all this will come to pass is 1978, and the cost of $10(8.7 ± 1.0)." - Irving Good "Within a generation, I am convinced, few compartments of intellect will remain outside the machine’s realm - the problem of creating ‘artificial intelligence’ will be substantially solved" - Marvin Minsky, 1967