". I think you'd find a lot of very intelligent people who disagree strongly with this statement. " I never claimed to be intelligent. " You can describe conf

". I think you'd find a lot of very intelligent people who disagree strongly with this statement. " I never claimed to be intelligent. " You can describe confidences as "well calibrated" if, when you look at their historical guesses, if their 70% assessments are correct 70% of the time." - Again, if you're trying to figure out if a coin is split 50/50 then yes, but without being able to repeat the same experiment you're fooling yourself and the whole aspect of bayesian thinking I think goes out the window. eg me being right about unrelated topics doesn't mean I'm right/wrong about specific topics.