5 ms·
People are mixing up % of vote with likelihood of victory. If she was polling at 70% that would be an almost 100% chance of winning because a 20% swing is unli
by albertgoeswoof 8y ago
People are mixing up % of vote with likelihood of victory.
If she was polling at 70% that would be an almost 100% chance of winning because a 20% swing is unlikely. However a 70% chance of victory is much much closer.
- Izkata 8y agoExactly right, and you can see the polling percentage on the linked page; scroll down to "How the forecast has changed" and click the almost-looks-like-a-button "popular vote"; it was bouncing around 46-48% Clinton and 40-44% Trump (and 5-8% Johnson).
- moolcool 8y agoI'm talking about the fivethirtyeight 'percentage of winning'