Right. Both coins have a probability of 0.5 on the next flip, but when you do multiple flips the hastily made coin has a higher chance of a result with lots of

Right. Both coins have a probability of 0.5 on the next flip, but when you do multiple flips the hastily made coin has a higher chance of a result with lots of heads or lots of tails. We could do the same thing for the 2016 election, but we would have to specify exactly what we meant by a "repeat". Do we just let Hillary run for the 2020 election and see what happens? Or do we put back every atom to the exact position it had in 2014, so that the only divergences between the two elections are caused by quantum randomness? Or something in between, like looking at all elections where a demagogue outsider runs against an established insider? Really it doesn't matter what definition of "repeat" we choose. Since the repeat won't actually happen, we can't be called to bet on it, so knowing the probability in that case isn't too useful. Whereas a coin actually can be flipped multiple times.