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> Probabilities are meaningless unless it’s a repeatable experiment otherwise its a ludic fallacy Um... this goes against the entirety of the Bayesian approach
by archgoon 8y ago
> Probabilities are meaningless unless it’s a repeatable experiment otherwise its a ludic fallacy
Um... this goes against the entirety of the Bayesian approach to statistics. I think you'd find a lot of very intelligent people who disagree strongly with this statement.
The Bayesian approach takes probabilities as subjective confidences. You can describe confidences as "well calibrated" if, when you look at their historical guesses, if their 70% assessments are correct 70% of the time.
- safgasCVS 8y ago". I think you'd find a lot of very intelligent people who disagree strongly with this statement. " I never claimed to be intelligent. " You can describe confidences as "well calibrated" if, when you look at their historical guesses, if their 70% assessments are correct 70% of the time." - Again, if you're trying to figure out if a coin is split 50/50 then yes, but without being able to repeat the same experiment you're fooling yourself and the whole aspect of bayesian thinking I think goes out the window. eg me being right about unrelated topics doesn't mean I'm right/wrong about specific topics.