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In my experience, putting numbers to your gut feeling probabilities causes people to not take them seriously. Example: "I think there is 30% chances that I will
by sanbor 8y ago
In my experience, putting numbers to your gut feeling probabilities causes people to not take them seriously. Example: "I think there is 30% chances that I will get a promotion next month". If I say 30% people ask how I came up with that number. If I say "not very likely" then it gets accepted as an educated guess. Probably because we're used that those numbers must come from some dataset. Or should I say "I think there is a chance of 40% that things are like that because we're used that those numbers must come from some dataset".
- a13n 8y ago30% is specific, as if it's the result of a calculation in a spreadsheet. But with something like getting a promotion, how would you calculate that so specifically? You can't. That's why people don't take it seriously. "Not very likely" is a rough estimate, like "probably not", or "less than 30% likely". It's a lot more believable that with the information you know, you're able to predict with that certainty.