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The analysis after the elections was interesting-- think pieces asking things like "How could the stats have been so wrong?!". A fair dice has a roughly 83% cha
by moolcool 8y ago
The analysis after the elections was interesting-- think pieces asking things like "How could the stats have been so wrong?!". A fair dice has a roughly 83% chance of landing on a number between 1 and 5, but if you roll a 6 you don't ask yourself the same question.
- albertgoeswoof 8y agoPeople are mixing up % of vote with likelihood of victory. If she was polling at 70% that would be an almost 100% chance of winning because a 20% swing is unlikely. However a 70% chance of victory is much much closer.
- Izkata 8y agoExactly right, and you can see the polling percentage on the linked page; scroll down to "How the forecast has changed" and click the almost-looks-like-a-button "popular vote"; it was bouncing around 46-48% Clinton and 40-44% Trump (and 5-8% Johnson).
- moolcool 8y agoI'm talking about the fivethirtyeight 'percentage of winning'