In terms of predicting what's going to happen next, it really isn't that different if your model's any good. Looking backwards, if the 2016 election had been de

In terms of predicting what's going to happen next, it really isn't that different if your model's any good. Looking backwards, if the 2016 election had been determined by two coin tosses both coming up heads, would we be surprised? And yet 538's polling model indicated that the probability was even better than two coins coming up heads. They probably should have just written that right there: "71%, better odds than two coins coming up heads." But: in order to understand if the model is any good, you need to try to build a good model, describe your model, and describe what you know about the underlying processes. With words, visuals, and math. Which is pretty much what 538 does better than most.