>When you use a word to describe the likelihood of a probabilistic outcome, you have a lot of wiggle room to make yourself look good after the fact. If a predic

>When you use a word to describe the likelihood of a probabilistic outcome, you have a lot of wiggle room to make yourself look good after the fact. If a predicted event happens, one might declare: “I told you it would probably happen.” If it doesn’t happen, the fallback might be: “I only said it would probably happen.” The same is true with numbers. If a predicted event happens, one might declare: "I told you there 80 percent that will happen". If it dosen't happen, the fallback might be: "I told you there are 20 percent it will not happen."