2 ms·
This is really scary. I can’t believe this is not more widely known given that its wayyy overdue with a long historical record.
by mrhappyunhappy 8y ago
This is really scary. I can’t believe this is not more widely known given that its wayyy overdue with a long historical record.
- njarboe 8y agoIt is not really "overdue" and interpreting the earthquake record is quite difficult. I would suggest this short (2 page) 2017 GSA Today[1] article for a decent write up by geologists for the general public. It says the odds of a large Cascadia earthquake in the next 50 years is between a 7% (using the average recurrence over the last 10k years) and 40% (using the average recurrence in the current earthquake cluster). I would also add a possibility that the article doesn't mention. They discuss clusters of earthquakes and you can see them in the paleoearthquake history plot. If these clusters really exist and are persistent, it looks like we are near the end of a cluster. The 1700 earthquake could have been the last one in the current cluster and the next earthquake might happen over 500 years from now. [1]https://doi.org/10.1130/GSATG350GW.1 https://doi.org/10.1130/GSATG350GW.1