3 ms·

Not everything can be usefully measured with one easy metric, as in Moore's Law. In the case of something like colonization, the proper metrics are economic, no

Not everything can be usefully measured with one easy metric, as in Moore's Law. In the case of something like colonization, the proper metrics are economic, not technological benchmarks. You could just as well cherry pick from The Age of Discovery, say from 1260 to 1360 and make the same statement: "X years ago. Since then, no progress on this front. Not even a repeat. This is not an accelerating rate." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Discovery#Medieval_travel_(1241%E2%80%931438) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Discovery#Medieval_trav... However, if you look at metrics of economic activity across spans 200, 400, and 600 years after that, you get a far different picture. So basically, your point is intellectually bankrupt. It's based on too little data and uses an entirely inadequate metric.

SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
I was with you until "your point is intellectually bankrupt" which is unnecessarily insulting and also wrong. I would welcome a return to deep space, but there has been no progress towards it recently. The dates are correct. It might be true that this is not strong enough evidence against either, and that it still remains an open question if recent technological advances on Earth will translate into a return to space, but that's as far as it goes. There's nothing inevitable about it, it depends on what people want.
- stcredzero 8y ago
  I was with you until "your point is intellectually bankrupt" which is unnecessarily insulting This is part of being an intellectual: I can insult your point all day. That's perfectly fine. Taking that personally -- not good form. there has been no progress towards it recently. The dates are correct. If you were an alien observing earth from orbit, you could have made the same observation ("no progress towards it recently") about ocean going exploration at multiple points, prior to it changing history irrevocably and then exploding in economic and political importance. There's nothing inevitable about it, it depends on what people want. In that case, it's likely to happen.
  - hutzlibu 8y ago
    "This is part of being an intellectual: I can insult your point all day. That's perfectly fine. Taking that personally -- not good form." Not at all. You can criticize any point all day and if someone takes that personal it is indeed not a good form. But "insulting" a point gives the impression (at least to me, and apparently to others) of insulting the person behind it, as you cannot insult a point, only a person. Quite the opposite of "beeing an intellectual".
    - stcredzero 8y ago
      But "insulting" a point gives the impression (at least to me, and apparently to others) of insulting the person behind it, as you cannot insult a point, only a person. Why in the world is saying that a point is intellectually bankrupt "insulting" a point versus criticizing it? The point is made that, "This numerical circumstance doesn't indicate exponential growth." However, an analogous numerical circumstance happened at a number of points, and was followed by exponential growth. Clearly, there is something else needed for justification. gives the impression (at least to me, and apparently to others) So factually, no one has done anything but criticize a point, and your reaction is all about your feels, by your own admission. If you want to defend the intellectual merits of the point, then actually defend the intellectual merits of the point. This tactic of acting offended, then offering nothing more is wearing thin. I should hope that going forward from 2018, people will generally recognize that kind of activity for what it is.
      - hutzlibu 8y ago
        If you want to be taken seriously, you might get out of that attitude. I am not your original "enemy" like you probably see him, I am someone else who tried to explain to you, that you were acting childish. Only that I worded it differently. Oh an "getting an impression" is not the same as "getting the feeling". But probably wasted words on a self-righteous guy, like you are. Seriously, "insulting a point" ... come on, that is and will remain, laughable. Grownups, can admit, that they went over the line here and there, no big deal. But you make something one out of it. And yes, with the last paragraph, I came down to your level a bit. So I just stop the "conversation" here.

SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago

I was with you until "your point is intellectually bankrupt" which is unnecessarily insulting and also wrong. I would welcome a return to deep space, but there has been no progress towards it recently. The dates are correct. It might be true that this is not strong enough evidence against either, and that it still remains an open question if recent technological advances on Earth will translate into a return to space, but that's as far as it goes. There's nothing inevitable about it, it depends on what people want.

stcredzero 8y ago
I was with you until "your point is intellectually bankrupt" which is unnecessarily insulting This is part of being an intellectual: I can insult your point all day. That's perfectly fine. Taking that personally -- not good form. there has been no progress towards it recently. The dates are correct. If you were an alien observing earth from orbit, you could have made the same observation ("no progress towards it recently") about ocean going exploration at multiple points, prior to it changing history irrevocably and then exploding in economic and political importance. There's nothing inevitable about it, it depends on what people want. In that case, it's likely to happen.
- hutzlibu 8y ago
  "This is part of being an intellectual: I can insult your point all day. That's perfectly fine. Taking that personally -- not good form." Not at all. You can criticize any point all day and if someone takes that personal it is indeed not a good form. But "insulting" a point gives the impression (at least to me, and apparently to others) of insulting the person behind it, as you cannot insult a point, only a person. Quite the opposite of "beeing an intellectual".
  - stcredzero 8y ago
    But "insulting" a point gives the impression (at least to me, and apparently to others) of insulting the person behind it, as you cannot insult a point, only a person. Why in the world is saying that a point is intellectually bankrupt "insulting" a point versus criticizing it? The point is made that, "This numerical circumstance doesn't indicate exponential growth." However, an analogous numerical circumstance happened at a number of points, and was followed by exponential growth. Clearly, there is something else needed for justification. gives the impression (at least to me, and apparently to others) So factually, no one has done anything but criticize a point, and your reaction is all about your feels, by your own admission. If you want to defend the intellectual merits of the point, then actually defend the intellectual merits of the point. This tactic of acting offended, then offering nothing more is wearing thin. I should hope that going forward from 2018, people will generally recognize that kind of activity for what it is.
    - hutzlibu 8y ago
      If you want to be taken seriously, you might get out of that attitude. I am not your original "enemy" like you probably see him, I am someone else who tried to explain to you, that you were acting childish. Only that I worded it differently. Oh an "getting an impression" is not the same as "getting the feeling". But probably wasted words on a self-righteous guy, like you are. Seriously, "insulting a point" ... come on, that is and will remain, laughable. Grownups, can admit, that they went over the line here and there, no big deal. But you make something one out of it. And yes, with the last paragraph, I came down to your level a bit. So I just stop the "conversation" here.