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Sure, but you are also forgetting the fact the DRAM industry was in glut and they suffered huge loss leading up to the point. Was it Cartels intend to drive th

Sure, but you are also forgetting the fact the DRAM industry was in glut and they suffered huge loss leading up to the point. Was it Cartels intend to drive the price so low that they would be almost out of business too?

kbenson 8y ago
> the DRAM industry was in glut and they suffered huge loss leading up to the point. So what caused that glut? There are very few things that come to mind (if any) that I can think of that excuse price collusion in a market, which is what was claimed above.
- tooltalk 8y ago
  What caused the glut was Samsung's massive expansion in the early 2010's. Samsung was trying to increase market share in DRAM and they pumped in billions in CAPEX to increase their manufacturing capacity. That not surprisingly drove down the prices of DRAM between late 2014 and 2016, which benefited consumers, but also huge loss for all DRAM makers. This also meant that they couldn't invest much into their future capacity which is why we have the kind of price surge that we now have. This is no brainer if you look at it as business cycle. It looks like all DRAM makers are increasing their output now, but probably not enough to bring down the price fast enough, as it takes years to ramp up production.
  - paulmd 8y ago
    > Samsung was trying to increase market share in DRAM and they pumped in billions in CAPEX to increase their manufacturing capacity. That's exactly how it's supposed to work. Every manufacturer is individually incentivized to increase supply to increase their own relative share of the market. Of course, it's collectively better for all of them to choke supply, which is how we get OPEC and the DRAM cartel. China's got a big electronics industry that needs DRAM for their products, so if Korea is going to choke supply then they're just going to start up their own fabs. And predictably, the DRAM cartel is now crying about the new kid on the block messing up their attempt to corner the market. > It looks like all DRAM makers are increasing their output now, but probably not enough to bring down the price fast enough, as it takes years to ramp up production. No, actually, they are contracting supply relative to projected demand. Demand is going up by 20.6%, supply is only going up by 5-7%. https://press.trendforce.com/press/20170920-2972.html https://press.trendforce.com/press/20170920-2972.html > This also meant that they couldn't invest much into their future capacity which is why we have the kind of price surge that we now have. This is no brainer if you look at it from business cycle point of view. Pretty sure they cut capex in 2016, which wouldn't have had an impact until like, this year. Are you saying that they cut capex and in a matter of months prices doubled? Yeah, doesn't seem correct to me. > Was it Cartels intend to drive the price so low that they would be almost out of business too? Samsung was "almost going out of business"? Bull fucking shit. Actual, literal, "won't someone think of the poor corporations just struggling to make ends meet". Just wow. Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are making bank.
    - tooltalk 8y ago
      Sure, Samsung was nowhere close to going out of business -- too big too fail? too much cash to fail? In fact Samsung had enough cash stashed away to weather the whole crisis and the company did continue investing through the trough.
    - ksec 8y ago
      >Meanwhile, Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are all planning to reduce capacity relative to projected growth of demand Unless you have evidence to support this, all the company above you listed has have expansion capacity planned and made during the last two years. >That's exactly how it's supposed to work. Every manufacturer is individually incentivized to increase supply to increase their own relative share of the market. And they are. Yes, there may be a cartel going on. But it is a simple fact demand is outstripping supply. And no memory maker are willing to invest money into building fabs. Because building a new Fabs along with leading node is increasingly expensive. Moore's law didn't just ended for CPU, it is for all semiconductor companies. All current Memory makers has roadmap that will add 30% plus bit capacity to NAND without even making a new Fab with 3D NAND. GDDR Memory is also in complete shortage, and was blamed multiple times where GPU maker cant ship as much as they could, not that Nvidia and AMD could built them fast enough with TSMC anyway. TSMC has stated they have a whole dedicated fab for customer making their own Bitcoin ASIC, ( And has since confirmed as BitMine ), no GPU maker can make a prediction of how and when the Crypto craze ends, how are memory makers suppose to plan for their GDDR production capacity other then being conservative about it. And Nvidia now are getting problem of having high volume of GPU sitting in channel after BitCoin and Crypto crash. Then there is the machine learning, AI craze, Datacenter segment seems to be growing with no limit. As shown outpacing Intel's projection quarter after quarter. With Fab investment continue to increase, and takes longer to recoup, do you expect any sane company to take risk into building new Fab? When you know somewhere in the back of your head these craziness may not be sustainable?
      - fouc 8y ago
        The evidence is in the link that was given >annual global DRAM bit demand for 2018 will grow by a larger margin of 20.6%. >the plans from the top three suppliers indicate that their respective wafer start volumes will expand by only 5% to 7% annually in 2018

kbenson 8y ago

> the DRAM industry was in glut and they suffered huge loss leading up to the point. So what caused that glut? There are very few things that come to mind (if any) that I can think of that excuse price collusion in a market, which is what was claimed above.

tooltalk 8y ago
What caused the glut was Samsung's massive expansion in the early 2010's. Samsung was trying to increase market share in DRAM and they pumped in billions in CAPEX to increase their manufacturing capacity. That not surprisingly drove down the prices of DRAM between late 2014 and 2016, which benefited consumers, but also huge loss for all DRAM makers. This also meant that they couldn't invest much into their future capacity which is why we have the kind of price surge that we now have. This is no brainer if you look at it as business cycle. It looks like all DRAM makers are increasing their output now, but probably not enough to bring down the price fast enough, as it takes years to ramp up production.
- paulmd 8y ago
  > Samsung was trying to increase market share in DRAM and they pumped in billions in CAPEX to increase their manufacturing capacity. That's exactly how it's supposed to work. Every manufacturer is individually incentivized to increase supply to increase their own relative share of the market. Of course, it's collectively better for all of them to choke supply, which is how we get OPEC and the DRAM cartel. China's got a big electronics industry that needs DRAM for their products, so if Korea is going to choke supply then they're just going to start up their own fabs. And predictably, the DRAM cartel is now crying about the new kid on the block messing up their attempt to corner the market. > It looks like all DRAM makers are increasing their output now, but probably not enough to bring down the price fast enough, as it takes years to ramp up production. No, actually, they are contracting supply relative to projected demand. Demand is going up by 20.6%, supply is only going up by 5-7%. https://press.trendforce.com/press/20170920-2972.html https://press.trendforce.com/press/20170920-2972.html > This also meant that they couldn't invest much into their future capacity which is why we have the kind of price surge that we now have. This is no brainer if you look at it from business cycle point of view. Pretty sure they cut capex in 2016, which wouldn't have had an impact until like, this year. Are you saying that they cut capex and in a matter of months prices doubled? Yeah, doesn't seem correct to me. > Was it Cartels intend to drive the price so low that they would be almost out of business too? Samsung was "almost going out of business"? Bull fucking shit. Actual, literal, "won't someone think of the poor corporations just struggling to make ends meet". Just wow. Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are making bank.
  - tooltalk 8y ago
    Sure, Samsung was nowhere close to going out of business -- too big too fail? too much cash to fail? In fact Samsung had enough cash stashed away to weather the whole crisis and the company did continue investing through the trough.
  - ksec 8y ago
    >Meanwhile, Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are all planning to reduce capacity relative to projected growth of demand Unless you have evidence to support this, all the company above you listed has have expansion capacity planned and made during the last two years. >That's exactly how it's supposed to work. Every manufacturer is individually incentivized to increase supply to increase their own relative share of the market. And they are. Yes, there may be a cartel going on. But it is a simple fact demand is outstripping supply. And no memory maker are willing to invest money into building fabs. Because building a new Fabs along with leading node is increasingly expensive. Moore's law didn't just ended for CPU, it is for all semiconductor companies. All current Memory makers has roadmap that will add 30% plus bit capacity to NAND without even making a new Fab with 3D NAND. GDDR Memory is also in complete shortage, and was blamed multiple times where GPU maker cant ship as much as they could, not that Nvidia and AMD could built them fast enough with TSMC anyway. TSMC has stated they have a whole dedicated fab for customer making their own Bitcoin ASIC, ( And has since confirmed as BitMine ), no GPU maker can make a prediction of how and when the Crypto craze ends, how are memory makers suppose to plan for their GDDR production capacity other then being conservative about it. And Nvidia now are getting problem of having high volume of GPU sitting in channel after BitCoin and Crypto crash. Then there is the machine learning, AI craze, Datacenter segment seems to be growing with no limit. As shown outpacing Intel's projection quarter after quarter. With Fab investment continue to increase, and takes longer to recoup, do you expect any sane company to take risk into building new Fab? When you know somewhere in the back of your head these craziness may not be sustainable?
    - fouc 8y ago
      The evidence is in the link that was given >annual global DRAM bit demand for 2018 will grow by a larger margin of 20.6%. >the plans from the top three suppliers indicate that their respective wafer start volumes will expand by only 5% to 7% annually in 2018