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> despite losing so many seats she needed a coalition afterwards, which in a democracy ought to be pause for thought Worth pointing out that the Labour opposit

by mrec 8y ago

> despite losing so many seats she needed a coalition afterwards, which in a democracy ought to be pause for thought Worth pointing out that the Labour opposition in that election had also pledged to respect the referendum result. Over 89% of votes went to parties with "leave the Single Market and Customs Union" in their manifesto. Given her current trajectory and staffing picks, I think it's at least plausible that May's objective was to get enough of a majority that she could pursue a "Brexit In Name Only" strategy without being blocked by the Tories' Brexiteer wing, and that the collapse of her vote was a reaction to this by the UKIP-inclined. I certainly saw conspiracy theories along these lines bandied about in the run-up to the election. If anything, I suspect you'd have more luck arguing from the latest Tory poll bump that the population had gone off the idea.

ben_w 8y ago
Despite the truth of your words [1], the impression I have is that most people are treating Labour as if it were the Remain party. This confuses me. [1] The only claim of yours I am not sure of is the UKIP one: I have not seen evidence to convince me UKIP voters voted tactically to prevent BINO. However, I don’t think it alters your point.
- mrec 8y ago
  > most people are treating Labour as if it were the Remain party. This confuses me. Yup. Treating May as some sort of extreme "hard Brexiteer" is even more hilariously silly. Labour is the nakedly opportunistic promise-everything-to-everyone-if-it-gets-us-into-power party at the moment. One important point to remember is that the Labour membership and the traditional core Labour vote are very, very different things. The membership, massively skewed by Momentum entryists, is heavily Remain. > I have not seen evidence to convince me UKIP voters voted tactically to prevent BINO I'm not convinced of it either, I just find it plausible as a hypothesis. Particularly since May was a (lukewarm) Remainer while Corbyn, despite bowing to pressure during the referendum campaign, is a lifelong Eurosceptic pitching a manifesto which depends heavily on getting out of the EU. State support and renationalization in particular are banned under present rules.
johneth 8y ago
> Over 89% of votes went to parties with "leave the Single Market and Customs Union" in their manifesto. I'd argue that's because of the first-past-the-post voting system in the UK - they trend towards two main parties, which are realistically people's only options ('to stop the other party getting in'). Also, while Labour are officially 'leavers', they've been very ambiguous about where exactly their position is. A lot of remainers will have voted for them just because they're not the Tories.

by mrec 8y ago

ben_w 8y ago

Despite the truth of your words [1], the impression I have is that most people are treating Labour as if it were the Remain party. This confuses me. [1] The only claim of yours I am not sure of is the UKIP one: I have not seen evidence to convince me UKIP voters voted tactically to prevent BINO. However, I don’t think it alters your point.

mrec 8y ago
> most people are treating Labour as if it were the Remain party. This confuses me. Yup. Treating May as some sort of extreme "hard Brexiteer" is even more hilariously silly. Labour is the nakedly opportunistic promise-everything-to-everyone-if-it-gets-us-into-power party at the moment. One important point to remember is that the Labour membership and the traditional core Labour vote are very, very different things. The membership, massively skewed by Momentum entryists, is heavily Remain. > I have not seen evidence to convince me UKIP voters voted tactically to prevent BINO I'm not convinced of it either, I just find it plausible as a hypothesis. Particularly since May was a (lukewarm) Remainer while Corbyn, despite bowing to pressure during the referendum campaign, is a lifelong Eurosceptic pitching a manifesto which depends heavily on getting out of the EU. State support and renationalization in particular are banned under present rules.

johneth 8y ago

> Over 89% of votes went to parties with "leave the Single Market and Customs Union" in their manifesto. I'd argue that's because of the first-past-the-post voting system in the UK - they trend towards two main parties, which are realistically people's only options ('to stop the other party getting in'). Also, while Labour are officially 'leavers', they've been very ambiguous about where exactly their position is. A lot of remainers will have voted for them just because they're not the Tories.