2 ms·
>> The fun thing is that even if you consider the amyloid hypothesis to be false, that doesn't make any of the alternative theories any more likely to be true
by db48x 8y ago
>> The fun thing is that even if you consider the amyloid hypothesis to be false, that doesn't make any of the alternative theories any more likely to be true
> This violates Bayes' theorem.
Not quite. If I understand the math correctly, this would only be true if we had a complete enumeration of all the other possible theories. Since the real cause of Alzheimer's could be something nobody has thought of yet, disproving a single theory would not add significant evidence in favor of the theories we have enumerated.
- nonbel 8y agoBayes rule is just: Pr(H0|Data) = Pr(H0)Pr(Data|H0)/sum(Pr(H[0:n])Pr(Data|H[0:n])) If the data indicates you lower the probability of any hypothesis 0:n, it means the others all become more likely. There is no reason this has to be by a significant amount though.
- db48x 8y agoYea. My point was that with no way to fully enumerate the set of hypotheses, you can't do that sum. Thus the change is insignificant.
- nonbel 8y agoYou dont need to do the exact sum. Small values in the denominator have negligible effect and can be dropped. Also, "you cant do the sum, therefore its insignificant" makes no sense.