VCs are an entire industry dedicated to betting on early stage startups and get it wrong a majority of the time. Seasoned veterans in specific industries are of

VCs are an entire industry dedicated to betting on early stage startups and get it wrong a majority of the time. Seasoned veterans in specific industries are often blindsided by startups they write off initially. So yes, its luck. I think more important is to choose a company that has a team you get a long with, is working on things you find interesting and if possible is aiming to achieve something you are interested seeing done too. If a sudden layoff would be damaging for you, look at their runway or stage to mitigate risk.