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Yes, but as far as I know that was the stated goal. From the May 2nd financial results letter: "We continue to target Model 3 production of approximately 5,00

Yes, but as far as I know that was the stated goal. From the May 2nd financial results letter: "We continue to target Model 3 production of approximately 5,000 per week in about two months, although our prior experience has demonstrated the difficulty of accurately forecasting specific production rates at specific points in time because of the exponential nature of the ramp." http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1b240f1e-b519-4b40-b14b-fea44698c3af http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1b240f1e-b519-4b40-b14b-fea...

bildung 8y ago
5000 per week also was Musks prediction for december 2017: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832
- opencl 8y ago
  The goal wasn't 5000 per week, it was 20000 per month. They have achieved the former but not the latter. This requires actually sustaining the production rate which has so far been highly violate with lots of temporary total shutdowns for retooling.
- stetrain 8y ago
  Yep, and they've taken plenty of knocks for failing to meet that stated goal and having to re-adjust and set new forward goals.
misja111 8y ago
Sure, the stated goal was 5000 per week in Q2 and that has been achieved, I already gave my credits for that. But Tesla's production was 2270 vehicles at the end of Q1 and nevertheless the average production over the entire Q2 remained below that number. Didn't you find that surprising?
- kamakazizuru 8y ago
  good catch. I wonder how much of that is due to the immense pressure they had in Q1 leading to crazy overtime etc to get that 2270 number. The current average being maybe a more sustainable number that can be ramped up ?
  - stetrain 8y ago
    The '7000 cars' milestone over the last week is probably a similar high intensity push. I would expect them to similarly spend some time this quarter reconfiguring and improving efficiency at the cost of not maintaining that high production rate every week.
  - compcoffee 8y ago
    >I wonder how much of that is due to the immense pressure they had in Q1 leading to crazy overtime etc to get that 2270 number. All of it. Anyone following this story knew they would announce 5000 cars produced at the end of the quarter, hell-or-high-water. Do you think they will produce 5000 cars this week?
- stetrain 8y ago
  "In order to achieve this production rate, we plan to take additional days of downtime during Q2, just like we did in Q1." They definitely aren't at a smooth sustainable build rate yet. They could probably maintain 4-5k/week on the Model 3 but in the pursuit of reaching higher output and increasing efficiency there will probably be more shutdowns this quarter. I would expect that they might lean on the tent/GA4 line to let them do some more shutdowns and reconfigurations of the main line. I think they've still got a ways to go before they have smooth and steady production output at the efficiency that they want.
  - lttlrck 8y ago
    Yet they're saying 6000/week by the end of next month. It's a never-ending sprint for the production line workers. Why not aim for sustained 5000/week, increase QA/reduce re-work and go from there? The fact that Musk is unable or unwilling to take that stance is a red flag for me and underscores my unease.

bildung 8y ago

5000 per week also was Musks prediction for december 2017: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881757617416056832

opencl 8y ago
The goal wasn't 5000 per week, it was 20000 per month. They have achieved the former but not the latter. This requires actually sustaining the production rate which has so far been highly violate with lots of temporary total shutdowns for retooling.
stetrain 8y ago
Yep, and they've taken plenty of knocks for failing to meet that stated goal and having to re-adjust and set new forward goals.

misja111 8y ago

Sure, the stated goal was 5000 per week in Q2 and that has been achieved, I already gave my credits for that. But Tesla's production was 2270 vehicles at the end of Q1 and nevertheless the average production over the entire Q2 remained below that number. Didn't you find that surprising?

kamakazizuru 8y ago
good catch. I wonder how much of that is due to the immense pressure they had in Q1 leading to crazy overtime etc to get that 2270 number. The current average being maybe a more sustainable number that can be ramped up ?
- stetrain 8y ago
  The '7000 cars' milestone over the last week is probably a similar high intensity push. I would expect them to similarly spend some time this quarter reconfiguring and improving efficiency at the cost of not maintaining that high production rate every week.
- compcoffee 8y ago
  >I wonder how much of that is due to the immense pressure they had in Q1 leading to crazy overtime etc to get that 2270 number. All of it. Anyone following this story knew they would announce 5000 cars produced at the end of the quarter, hell-or-high-water. Do you think they will produce 5000 cars this week?
stetrain 8y ago
"In order to achieve this production rate, we plan to take additional days of downtime during Q2, just like we did in Q1." They definitely aren't at a smooth sustainable build rate yet. They could probably maintain 4-5k/week on the Model 3 but in the pursuit of reaching higher output and increasing efficiency there will probably be more shutdowns this quarter. I would expect that they might lean on the tent/GA4 line to let them do some more shutdowns and reconfigurations of the main line. I think they've still got a ways to go before they have smooth and steady production output at the efficiency that they want.
- lttlrck 8y ago
  Yet they're saying 6000/week by the end of next month. It's a never-ending sprint for the production line workers. Why not aim for sustained 5000/week, increase QA/reduce re-work and go from there? The fact that Musk is unable or unwilling to take that stance is a red flag for me and underscores my unease.