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Well as a first point, I think that there's a huge difference between 'This very difficult thing is probably so difficult that X' and 'I have physically seen th

by slivym 8y ago

Well as a first point, I think that there's a huge difference between 'This very difficult thing is probably so difficult that X' and 'I have physically seen this production line, and there's no way it's doing X'. The first is an estimation of difficulty - probably an educated guess that could be wrong. The second is a statement based on the evidence in front of you. Secondly, whilst it's true that people have been saying Tesla won't get to 5k/w, it's also true that Tesla were claiming they'd have a fully automated production line. If Tesla gets to 5k/w by hand-building them all then in most people's eyes they've failed. The value of Tesla is not the actual production of cars. It's the IP of their self-driving technology, and the IP for their fully automated production line. There's a reason Tesla's valuation is completely unlinked from their production capacity.

kamaal 8y ago
>>The first is an estimation of difficulty - probably an educated guess that could be wrong. Difficult things have been done all time and being done even as we speak now. Its not very hard to be positive about difficult things happening even in the present. The real problem is the discomfort with anything new, and the fear of new order of things. There is also a certain amount of risk taking ability that goes away when you become intelligent(expertise). That's because expertise is an investment in time, and there fore a good part of one's life. Watching that get washed away, or giving it up to start a new life is very hard. Its a huge mountain of emotion which you have to scale up and then down. People would rather let existing order of things prevail as they are. The second part is people find it hard to put what is already done aside and start afresh. I have even forgotten the count of number of people who I have heard telling they can't learn something new, or begin on a new heading because they have travelled too long down the current path. Sometimes this is for things as simple as starting a new hobby. So Tesla will likely win, and people won't be happy seeing it win. People are not comfortable watching live anti-thesis to their excuses.
flud 8y ago
"The value of Tesla is not the actual production of cars. It's the IP of their self-driving technology, and the IP for their fully automated production line. " I highly doubt that but if you have any link/proof pls share. Their value is in providing a product people are head over heels about. And their valuation is much like any other company, based on guestimates of success.

by slivym 8y ago

kamaal 8y ago

>>The first is an estimation of difficulty - probably an educated guess that could be wrong. Difficult things have been done all time and being done even as we speak now. Its not very hard to be positive about difficult things happening even in the present. The real problem is the discomfort with anything new, and the fear of new order of things. There is also a certain amount of risk taking ability that goes away when you become intelligent(expertise). That's because expertise is an investment in time, and there fore a good part of one's life. Watching that get washed away, or giving it up to start a new life is very hard. Its a huge mountain of emotion which you have to scale up and then down. People would rather let existing order of things prevail as they are. The second part is people find it hard to put what is already done aside and start afresh. I have even forgotten the count of number of people who I have heard telling they can't learn something new, or begin on a new heading because they have travelled too long down the current path. Sometimes this is for things as simple as starting a new hobby. So Tesla will likely win, and people won't be happy seeing it win. People are not comfortable watching live anti-thesis to their excuses.

flud 8y ago

"The value of Tesla is not the actual production of cars. It's the IP of their self-driving technology, and the IP for their fully automated production line. " I highly doubt that but if you have any link/proof pls share. Their value is in providing a product people are head over heels about. And their valuation is much like any other company, based on guestimates of success.