5 ms·

We use the words after the fall, but some EU countries like spain, Italy and Greece are still on the brink with massive youth unemployment

misja111 8y ago
The problems in Greece were not caused by the credit crisis. Sooner or later Greece's model of government spending without a solid tax regime would have collapsed, the crisis only made the underlying problems more apparent.
- maze-le 8y ago
  Without the Euro, the greek central bank could have increased inflation and downvalued the Drachma, so the government could spend, spend, spend. This was the Modus Operandi before the Euro. I don't say, that this is a responsible way of managing a countrys finances, but if the alternative is increasing infant mortality and extreme unemployment for almost a decade, I can't see whats so bad about that.
  - isostatic 8y ago
    Greece infant mortality has been decreasing since 2004 [1] [2] [1] https://knoema.com/atlas/Greece/topics/Demographics/Mortality/Infant-mortality-rate https://knoema.com/atlas/Greece/topics/Demographics/Mortalit... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/806917/infant-mortality-in-greece/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/806917/infant-mortality-...
    - ataturk 8y ago
      How does infant mortality relate to deficit spending? Couldn't technological progress account for the drop in infant mortality? Or maybe they stopped counting certain deaths? I see this all the time with crime stats--you can't compare homicides between the US and Europe because many European countries don't consider a death a homicide until the case is solved. The unsolved cases fall into a black hole of "not counted" or certainly not counted as homicides, and then we get all these breathless articles about how bad crime looks in the US while really US crime rates are very low comparatively speaking. We saw this same issue with Cuba--ginning their numbers to make their wretched healthcare system look better than the US, when in fact, there is absolutely not even a comparison there. Cuba can't even get a bus back to how good the US truly is. And the media eats this shit up because they are apologists for communists and love clickbait, fake news.
    - growlist 8y ago
      So you don't dispute the extreme unemployment then?
      - isostatic 8y ago
        I certainly agree with the MO of inflation in Greece pre euro. I'm not sure about the real unemployment situation, but I only know about a few islands, not the mainland. There a lot of people work cash in hand in the tourist trade, they are technically unemployed (and their businesses pay very little in taxation as most of the money isn't declared) Greece should never have been allowed into the euro in the first place. The EU is essential for Greeks, many of whom have gone to other parts of the EU to work, just like Americans left Detroit after 2008.
    - LMYahooTFY 8y ago
      There were studies published showing acute increases in infant mortality during the last few years. I haven't read through them myself, only second hand reports of the findings.
  - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
    > the greek central bank could have increased inflation and downvalued the Drachma This only works for so long. There is a reason the Venezuelan and Argentinian model predictably hits the rocks after a few decades.
    - emodendroket 8y ago
      In Venezuela's case it has more to do with the price of oil
      - snowwindwaves 8y ago
        And Nationalizing oil infrastructure and then failing to operate and maintain it properly.
  - jonhendry18 8y ago
    "Without the Euro, the greek central bank could have increased inflation and downvalued the Drachma, so the government could spend, spend, spend. " Would that work for Greece, or would it just become hyperinflation?
    - RobertoG 8y ago
      Luckily we have some data about that. Was Greece growing more or less in average before the Euro? Did they suffer hyperinflation before the Euro? Is the current Greek economy healthy with the Euro constraints? Has it improved with the "austerity" imposed?
    - growlist 8y ago
      It seemed to work for many years before the Euro
- isolli 8y ago
  And what are your thoughts regarding Spain and Italy?
  - misja111 8y ago
    Italy's problems are a bit similar to Greece's but their economy is just a lot stronger. In Spain it was clearly the inflated housing market that caused the problems.
    - ahartmetz 8y ago
      Italy is like two countries - the North has a strong economy, the South seems to have mainly agriculture, unemployment and mafia. Think of any famous Italian brand (or look at any Italian machinery), it's probably from north of Rome.
at-fates-hands 8y ago
It doesn't help there massive amounts of refugees flooding into those countries as well. I realize people are fleeing war and violence, but they're going to countries where there isn't any jobs, and the economic situation is dire. It's the worst possible scenario. They're leaving their home countries with nothing and arriving with an even bleaker future ahead of them.
- cubano 8y ago
  If they are leaving a place of "war and violence", I am sure some unemployment as the worst social condition hardly could be construed as an "even bleaker future ahead".
- icebraining 8y ago
  There aren't, though. Immigration has dropped a lot in 2016, and again in 2017. Mediterranean crosses more than halved from 2016 to 2017. Last year, the EU only granted protection to 540k persons, in an EU with over 500M inhabitants.
  - at-fates-hands 8y ago
    Not according to the articles I've been reading: 25.03.2018: https://www.dw.com/en/on-the-edge-of-the-eu-refugee-flows-flood-the-evros-river/a-43068842 https://www.dw.com/en/on-the-edge-of-the-eu-refugee-flows-fl... It's not clear how many make it across. But last year alone, officials from Frontex, the EU's border agency, said they intercepted 5,500 illegal crossings, a whopping 80 percent rise compared to the previous year. During that same period, Turkish authorities told the United Nations they had intercepted nearly 21,000 people, more than triple the number reported the previous year. 29.9.2017: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/29/surge-in-migration-to-greece-fuels-misery-in-refugee-camps https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/29/surge-in-migra... The number of people arriving, across land and sea borders, has more than doubled since the beginning of the summer. Authorities estimate arrivals are now at their highest level since March 2016, with over 200 men, women and children being registered every day. “We’re living the days of 2015,” said Pantelis Dimitriou from Iliaktida, a local NGO on Lesbos operating accommodation and support centres for the newly arrived. “The flows have become huge. From around 50 to 60 in early July they are now at more than 200 every day. 2.7.2017: https://gulfnews.com/news/europe/italy/italy-overwhelmed-by-flood-of-immigrants-1.2051986 https://gulfnews.com/news/europe/italy/italy-overwhelmed-by-... But it is also a reflection of Italy’s years on the migration front lines with little help from the rest of Europe. More than 82,000 people have arrived in Italy this year, a 20 per cent increase over the same period last year, according to the United Nations refugee agency. Under current EU rules, asylum seekers are supposed to apply for protection in the first EU country that they enter. At the height of the refugee crisis in late 2015, EU leaders set up a quota system to try to distribute some of the refugees from the main arrival nations of Greece and Italy, but it has barely gotten off the ground. The influx has strained Italian infrastructure — and the goodwill of Italian voters.

misja111 8y ago

The problems in Greece were not caused by the credit crisis. Sooner or later Greece's model of government spending without a solid tax regime would have collapsed, the crisis only made the underlying problems more apparent.

maze-le 8y ago
Without the Euro, the greek central bank could have increased inflation and downvalued the Drachma, so the government could spend, spend, spend. This was the Modus Operandi before the Euro. I don't say, that this is a responsible way of managing a countrys finances, but if the alternative is increasing infant mortality and extreme unemployment for almost a decade, I can't see whats so bad about that.
- isostatic 8y ago
  Greece infant mortality has been decreasing since 2004 [1] [2] [1] https://knoema.com/atlas/Greece/topics/Demographics/Mortality/Infant-mortality-rate https://knoema.com/atlas/Greece/topics/Demographics/Mortalit... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/806917/infant-mortality-in-greece/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/806917/infant-mortality-...
  - ataturk 8y ago
    How does infant mortality relate to deficit spending? Couldn't technological progress account for the drop in infant mortality? Or maybe they stopped counting certain deaths? I see this all the time with crime stats--you can't compare homicides between the US and Europe because many European countries don't consider a death a homicide until the case is solved. The unsolved cases fall into a black hole of "not counted" or certainly not counted as homicides, and then we get all these breathless articles about how bad crime looks in the US while really US crime rates are very low comparatively speaking. We saw this same issue with Cuba--ginning their numbers to make their wretched healthcare system look better than the US, when in fact, there is absolutely not even a comparison there. Cuba can't even get a bus back to how good the US truly is. And the media eats this shit up because they are apologists for communists and love clickbait, fake news.
  - growlist 8y ago
    So you don't dispute the extreme unemployment then?
    - isostatic 8y ago
      I certainly agree with the MO of inflation in Greece pre euro. I'm not sure about the real unemployment situation, but I only know about a few islands, not the mainland. There a lot of people work cash in hand in the tourist trade, they are technically unemployed (and their businesses pay very little in taxation as most of the money isn't declared) Greece should never have been allowed into the euro in the first place. The EU is essential for Greeks, many of whom have gone to other parts of the EU to work, just like Americans left Detroit after 2008.
  - LMYahooTFY 8y ago
    There were studies published showing acute increases in infant mortality during the last few years. I haven't read through them myself, only second hand reports of the findings.
- JumpCrisscross 8y ago
  > the greek central bank could have increased inflation and downvalued the Drachma This only works for so long. There is a reason the Venezuelan and Argentinian model predictably hits the rocks after a few decades.
  - emodendroket 8y ago
    In Venezuela's case it has more to do with the price of oil
    - snowwindwaves 8y ago
      And Nationalizing oil infrastructure and then failing to operate and maintain it properly.
- jonhendry18 8y ago
  "Without the Euro, the greek central bank could have increased inflation and downvalued the Drachma, so the government could spend, spend, spend. " Would that work for Greece, or would it just become hyperinflation?
  - RobertoG 8y ago
    Luckily we have some data about that. Was Greece growing more or less in average before the Euro? Did they suffer hyperinflation before the Euro? Is the current Greek economy healthy with the Euro constraints? Has it improved with the "austerity" imposed?
  - growlist 8y ago
    It seemed to work for many years before the Euro
isolli 8y ago
And what are your thoughts regarding Spain and Italy?
- misja111 8y ago
  Italy's problems are a bit similar to Greece's but their economy is just a lot stronger. In Spain it was clearly the inflated housing market that caused the problems.
  - ahartmetz 8y ago
    Italy is like two countries - the North has a strong economy, the South seems to have mainly agriculture, unemployment and mafia. Think of any famous Italian brand (or look at any Italian machinery), it's probably from north of Rome.

at-fates-hands 8y ago

It doesn't help there massive amounts of refugees flooding into those countries as well. I realize people are fleeing war and violence, but they're going to countries where there isn't any jobs, and the economic situation is dire. It's the worst possible scenario. They're leaving their home countries with nothing and arriving with an even bleaker future ahead of them.

cubano 8y ago
If they are leaving a place of "war and violence", I am sure some unemployment as the worst social condition hardly could be construed as an "even bleaker future ahead".
icebraining 8y ago
There aren't, though. Immigration has dropped a lot in 2016, and again in 2017. Mediterranean crosses more than halved from 2016 to 2017. Last year, the EU only granted protection to 540k persons, in an EU with over 500M inhabitants.
- at-fates-hands 8y ago
  Not according to the articles I've been reading: 25.03.2018: https://www.dw.com/en/on-the-edge-of-the-eu-refugee-flows-flood-the-evros-river/a-43068842 https://www.dw.com/en/on-the-edge-of-the-eu-refugee-flows-fl... It's not clear how many make it across. But last year alone, officials from Frontex, the EU's border agency, said they intercepted 5,500 illegal crossings, a whopping 80 percent rise compared to the previous year. During that same period, Turkish authorities told the United Nations they had intercepted nearly 21,000 people, more than triple the number reported the previous year. 29.9.2017: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/29/surge-in-migration-to-greece-fuels-misery-in-refugee-camps https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/29/surge-in-migra... The number of people arriving, across land and sea borders, has more than doubled since the beginning of the summer. Authorities estimate arrivals are now at their highest level since March 2016, with over 200 men, women and children being registered every day. “We’re living the days of 2015,” said Pantelis Dimitriou from Iliaktida, a local NGO on Lesbos operating accommodation and support centres for the newly arrived. “The flows have become huge. From around 50 to 60 in early July they are now at more than 200 every day. 2.7.2017: https://gulfnews.com/news/europe/italy/italy-overwhelmed-by-flood-of-immigrants-1.2051986 https://gulfnews.com/news/europe/italy/italy-overwhelmed-by-... But it is also a reflection of Italy’s years on the migration front lines with little help from the rest of Europe. More than 82,000 people have arrived in Italy this year, a 20 per cent increase over the same period last year, according to the United Nations refugee agency. Under current EU rules, asylum seekers are supposed to apply for protection in the first EU country that they enter. At the height of the refugee crisis in late 2015, EU leaders set up a quota system to try to distribute some of the refugees from the main arrival nations of Greece and Italy, but it has barely gotten off the ground. The influx has strained Italian infrastructure — and the goodwill of Italian voters.