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First, large-scale manufacturing is a different thing from rocket engineering. It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding an

First, large-scale manufacturing is a different thing from rocket engineering. It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly. He may never be able to learn at all—beliefs about people and management are far more hard-set than those about physics and engineering. That said, I think he'll get it done, but it's still arrogant (and inefficient) to take all of the learnings of manufacturing and management of the past 30 years and try to "start fresh." It's a waste. It's a waste of money, a waste of time, a waste of human capital and life and happiness. He's expending energy to learn things we've already learned. That's the sad part. I'm sure he'll get it done, but at what cost? At what despair and unnecessary strife? And at what level of waste and inefficiency. Sure, you'll say, necessity is the mother of invention, and new knowledge and innovation will come out of this struggle—but how can we know even more could not be done in a better process? We can't, and this naysaying will go by the wayside. As perhaps it should.

grey-area 8y ago
I think the reason he does it this way is to avoid reaching the same local maximum competitors are already stuck in - you can’t out-compete incumbents with more of the same but a little better. It is arrogant in many ways but there is a reason behind it, it’s not just hubris, and crucially it requires finding the right frustrated talented people and listening to them, it would be a mistake to think he comes up with all the ideas. I disagree that he’s not good at managing people, he just has very different success criteria, which do not highly rate the welfare of his workers. I think like Jobs, Bezos and many other successful business leaders he’s good at finding talented people, selling them a dream, and wringing every last ounce of life out of them in service of his dreams, then finding someone else to keep it going. A lot of people will be broken along the way, a lot of people will produce their best work.
- HeyLaughingBoy 8y ago
  It's possibly(?) tangential to the discussion, but I would say that if he does not "highly rate the welfare of his workers" then, he is by definition not good at managing people.
  - grey-area 8y ago
    I mostly agree; I wouldn't want to work for someone like that, there is some ambiguity though as usually they are themselves driven to excel at all costs, and sometimes they encourage people to excel in ways they would not without the pressure (even if at great personal cost). I think he is highly skilled at manipulating and motivating people to do what he wants, whether you want to call that 'good at managing' is another discussion, mostly centred around the moral connotations of 'good'.
karpodiem 8y ago
Until Tesla goes bankrupt (which I believe is sooner rather than later - Tesla is sitting on a Wells Notice), the charade continues.
- ericb 8y ago
  I would argue that the number of companies who have gone bankrupt sitting on this dollar volume of preorders is and will continue to be, 0. Worst case scenario, they can issue stock or sell a chunk of the company. Even easier is to dial back R&D.
  - karpodiem 8y ago
    Pre-orders are overstated. Check Twitter - people who were quoted November delivery for AWD Performance are now being told they can take delivery in July. They'll burn through supposed 450K before the end of Q3, and then the order book is dry/cash crunch time for Tesla.
    - ericb 8y ago
      That means they are managing cash flows and taking high margin orders first, not running out of demand. Further, I expect the number of people who can put down 1k and wait with no new car for a long time is but a small fraction of those who can buy without those substantial barriers.
PuffinBlue 8y ago
> It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly. Hmm. This strikes me as somewhat implausible or at least uncharitable. Are there other example of doing something as complex, in a 'new' field, at a scale to compete with incumbent operators AND vertically integrating both design and manufacture? If one zooms out a little to place what Tesla is doing in context, or Musks 'performance', it doesn't seem they've been particularly bad per se, more that they've faced difficulties that are inevitable. It's somewhat of a testament to them 'doing well' and learning to do it pretty damn quickly that we here can continue to talk about how bad they continue to be - namely because they're still around and not dead and disbanded. I may, of course, be talking rubbish seeing as I don't know much about this subject nor do I have a horse in the race. But it just strikes me that Tesla is doing something extraordinarily hard (I know about the logistics of supply chain management and that's hard enough in the auto industry) and being played out in public view with intense competition.
- calinet6 8y ago
  Yes, you're correct. And in fact I had a bet with a friend ten years ago that Tesla would in fact still be around today. He didn't think they would. I just won that bet in January. :) The shame is that the parts that are innovative, like the engineering of an electric car, the design, the interface, and the battery technology, are all going so well, all things considered. Whereas the parts that don't necessarily require innovation on a major scale, such as management of people, the operation of a manufacturing line at scale, systemic quality control, and safety and health—are being done (by all accounts) not so well. These are the things that are far more difficult than the technology and innovation precisely because they are so much more complex, and require a different mindset. For the same reason Musk is so good at engineering, it is not totally surprising he is not so spectacular at leading the human systems required for this new pursuit. Again, by all accounts. And the sad part: these are the parts that have been done before, in similar situations, at similar scales, with similarly new technologies, without drastically different requirements or problems. Having that experience available to you and not using it is not exactly wise. All that said, I think he'll learn what he needs to learn, get it done anyway, and will not fail. Making this point of efficiency at this stage pretty moot. I realize that.
claytoneast 8y ago
Ah yes, I forgot that running a company doing rocket science with ~5000 employees (as of late 2015) clearly proves no abilities in management or people skills whatsoever.
HeadsUpHigh 8y ago
It's always the next thing that Musk won't achieve. It's funny how people are constantly moving the goalpost after every success he has. He is building a car manufacturer from scratch and people are making 6 months worth of delays such a big deal...( I mean as a personal failure not as far as the importance of the milestone for the company).

grey-area 8y ago

I think the reason he does it this way is to avoid reaching the same local maximum competitors are already stuck in - you can’t out-compete incumbents with more of the same but a little better. It is arrogant in many ways but there is a reason behind it, it’s not just hubris, and crucially it requires finding the right frustrated talented people and listening to them, it would be a mistake to think he comes up with all the ideas. I disagree that he’s not good at managing people, he just has very different success criteria, which do not highly rate the welfare of his workers. I think like Jobs, Bezos and many other successful business leaders he’s good at finding talented people, selling them a dream, and wringing every last ounce of life out of them in service of his dreams, then finding someone else to keep it going. A lot of people will be broken along the way, a lot of people will produce their best work.

HeyLaughingBoy 8y ago
It's possibly(?) tangential to the discussion, but I would say that if he does not "highly rate the welfare of his workers" then, he is by definition not good at managing people.
- grey-area 8y ago
  I mostly agree; I wouldn't want to work for someone like that, there is some ambiguity though as usually they are themselves driven to excel at all costs, and sometimes they encourage people to excel in ways they would not without the pressure (even if at great personal cost). I think he is highly skilled at manipulating and motivating people to do what he wants, whether you want to call that 'good at managing' is another discussion, mostly centred around the moral connotations of 'good'.

karpodiem 8y ago

Until Tesla goes bankrupt (which I believe is sooner rather than later - Tesla is sitting on a Wells Notice), the charade continues.

ericb 8y ago
I would argue that the number of companies who have gone bankrupt sitting on this dollar volume of preorders is and will continue to be, 0. Worst case scenario, they can issue stock or sell a chunk of the company. Even easier is to dial back R&D.
- karpodiem 8y ago
  Pre-orders are overstated. Check Twitter - people who were quoted November delivery for AWD Performance are now being told they can take delivery in July. They'll burn through supposed 450K before the end of Q3, and then the order book is dry/cash crunch time for Tesla.
  - ericb 8y ago
    That means they are managing cash flows and taking high margin orders first, not running out of demand. Further, I expect the number of people who can put down 1k and wait with no new car for a long time is but a small fraction of those who can buy without those substantial barriers.

PuffinBlue 8y ago

> It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly. Hmm. This strikes me as somewhat implausible or at least uncharitable. Are there other example of doing something as complex, in a 'new' field, at a scale to compete with incumbent operators AND vertically integrating both design and manufacture? If one zooms out a little to place what Tesla is doing in context, or Musks 'performance', it doesn't seem they've been particularly bad per se, more that they've faced difficulties that are inevitable. It's somewhat of a testament to them 'doing well' and learning to do it pretty damn quickly that we here can continue to talk about how bad they continue to be - namely because they're still around and not dead and disbanded. I may, of course, be talking rubbish seeing as I don't know much about this subject nor do I have a horse in the race. But it just strikes me that Tesla is doing something extraordinarily hard (I know about the logistics of supply chain management and that's hard enough in the auto industry) and being played out in public view with intense competition.

calinet6 8y ago
Yes, you're correct. And in fact I had a bet with a friend ten years ago that Tesla would in fact still be around today. He didn't think they would. I just won that bet in January. :) The shame is that the parts that are innovative, like the engineering of an electric car, the design, the interface, and the battery technology, are all going so well, all things considered. Whereas the parts that don't necessarily require innovation on a major scale, such as management of people, the operation of a manufacturing line at scale, systemic quality control, and safety and health—are being done (by all accounts) not so well. These are the things that are far more difficult than the technology and innovation precisely because they are so much more complex, and require a different mindset. For the same reason Musk is so good at engineering, it is not totally surprising he is not so spectacular at leading the human systems required for this new pursuit. Again, by all accounts. And the sad part: these are the parts that have been done before, in similar situations, at similar scales, with similarly new technologies, without drastically different requirements or problems. Having that experience available to you and not using it is not exactly wise. All that said, I think he'll learn what he needs to learn, get it done anyway, and will not fail. Making this point of efficiency at this stage pretty moot. I realize that.

claytoneast 8y ago

Ah yes, I forgot that running a company doing rocket science with ~5000 employees (as of late 2015) clearly proves no abilities in management or people skills whatsoever.

HeadsUpHigh 8y ago

It's always the next thing that Musk won't achieve. It's funny how people are constantly moving the goalpost after every success he has. He is building a car manufacturer from scratch and people are making 6 months worth of delays such a big deal...( I mean as a personal failure not as far as the importance of the milestone for the company).