5 ms·

One cannot will anything one wants into existence. At some point, he'll need to understand how to design an effective large-scale manufacturing system, and not

One cannot will anything one wants into existence. At some point, he'll need to understand how to design an effective large-scale manufacturing system, and not simply yell for one. Specifically, he should actually learn some things about managing people, and the place that has in producing quality at volume at speed. It's sad, because that's exactly the lesson Toyota was trying to teach at NUMMI, and their legacy has been totally forgotten by its new owner—at great cost. It's simply a shame. > "According to this, they're using 7 times as many employees and still making less than a 1/5 of the cars NUMMI did when they had the factory." https://insideevs.com/teslas-fremont-factory/ https://insideevs.com/teslas-fremont-factory/ -- via https://twitter.com/Benshooter/status/1012113642689519617 https://twitter.com/Benshooter/status/1012113642689519617 (albeit they're earlier in their maturity, for sure, but still)

grecy 8y ago
> One cannot will anything one wants into existence Let's just see now. Musk wanted to grow a plant on Mars, and when the Russians pulled out of a deal to sell him a couple of ICBMs he decided he would will his own rocket into existence. Then he decided he wanted it to be reusable, so he willed that into existence when everyone said it was impossible. Then he wanted to strap three of them together, so he willed that into existence. Then we wanted electric cars, so he willed into existence not only the best electric car ever, but one of the best cars ever, period (Model S) etc. etc. I think it unwise to underestimate Musk.
- setquk 8y ago
  Yep. He delivers. People are too obsessed about when. Shits’s complicated.
  - calinet6 8y ago
    Not so worried about when, there's no rush. It's just a shame to see the chaos where there doesn't have to be, that's all.
    - jexah 8y ago
      That's just the thing, Tesla isn't creating the chaos, everybody else is. Tesla setting huge goals and trying their best to reach them, no doubt exceeding Musk's true expectations. Companies fail to meet goals all the time, most of the time because the goals have been set intentionally unreachable.
  - atomical 8y ago
    For shareholders and customers that makes sense. For everyone else not so much. There are a lot of people in the everyone else column who are happy to see an entrepreneur take risks.
    - grecy 8y ago
      > who are happy to see an entrepreneur take risks. Are there really? I feel like a massive percentage of people are against Musk and Tesla precisely because he's trying to do something new, and take some risks. It's like a majority of Americans don't want anyone to do anything radical anymore, like they're happy to stagnate.
      - HeyLaughingBoy 8y ago
        You're overthinking this. What's going on is simply that when you say you're going to do something, people (especially the ones who've lent/invested money) expect you to do it. If you don't then you rapidly lose credibility.
  - agumonkey 8y ago
    When does matter a bit, there was a probability that other manufacturers might swipe the market under Musk feet
- calinet6 8y ago
  First, large-scale manufacturing is a different thing from rocket engineering. It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly. He may never be able to learn at all—beliefs about people and management are far more hard-set than those about physics and engineering. That said, I think he'll get it done, but it's still arrogant (and inefficient) to take all of the learnings of manufacturing and management of the past 30 years and try to "start fresh." It's a waste. It's a waste of money, a waste of time, a waste of human capital and life and happiness. He's expending energy to learn things we've already learned. That's the sad part. I'm sure he'll get it done, but at what cost? At what despair and unnecessary strife? And at what level of waste and inefficiency. Sure, you'll say, necessity is the mother of invention, and new knowledge and innovation will come out of this struggle—but how can we know even more could not be done in a better process? We can't, and this naysaying will go by the wayside. As perhaps it should.
  - grey-area 8y ago
    I think the reason he does it this way is to avoid reaching the same local maximum competitors are already stuck in - you can’t out-compete incumbents with more of the same but a little better. It is arrogant in many ways but there is a reason behind it, it’s not just hubris, and crucially it requires finding the right frustrated talented people and listening to them, it would be a mistake to think he comes up with all the ideas. I disagree that he’s not good at managing people, he just has very different success criteria, which do not highly rate the welfare of his workers. I think like Jobs, Bezos and many other successful business leaders he’s good at finding talented people, selling them a dream, and wringing every last ounce of life out of them in service of his dreams, then finding someone else to keep it going. A lot of people will be broken along the way, a lot of people will produce their best work.
    - HeyLaughingBoy 8y ago
      It's possibly(?) tangential to the discussion, but I would say that if he does not "highly rate the welfare of his workers" then, he is by definition not good at managing people.
- ericb 8y ago
  Then he willed it to land standing up. On a barge. In the ocean. And an assembly line. In a tent. From a bunch of scraps.
  - antoniuschan99 8y ago
    It's starting to sound like the first chapter in the old testament haha
    - oddsockmachine 8y ago
      I was thinking more the first Iron Man movie
- Robotbeat 8y ago
  ...and generally speaking, human. Musk might be able to work longer hours without having a stroke, but ultimately he's not magic, and lots of other people can do this, too. Let's see more people try. (But I’d suggest just one major company at a time, spend more time with your spouse and kids.)
- s2g 8y ago
  Oh good, the cult of Elon is in full force.
- williamscales 8y ago
  I don't think anyone said you couldn't land a rocket. Folks have been looking in to doing that for a long time, we just didn't have the technology or enough investment in space to make it happen. He was just one of the first ones to come along and bring enough capital and technology to bear on the problem. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely admire what Elon Musk is capable of. But it's worth being realistic when we draw opinions of leaders lest we fall victim to hero worship.
deleted 8y ago
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comboy 8y ago
One can judge from the distance and think he has better understanding of the problem, than a person who is immersed in it most of his waking hours and surrounded by people specialized at solving it.
agumonkey 8y ago
I didn't mean it this way. I believe Musk has enough self confidence and college education to think he can crack through things like he did with SpaceX (remember they almost died and now vertical reusable landing is almost the new normal). So if he manages to keep Tesla growing, he'll fix things on the way. Maybe he'll have time to read about Toyota :)
- calinet6 8y ago
  I do think he'll learn, and I trust that he's a pretty decent person all things considered. Hope it goes well for them!

grecy 8y ago

> One cannot will anything one wants into existence Let's just see now. Musk wanted to grow a plant on Mars, and when the Russians pulled out of a deal to sell him a couple of ICBMs he decided he would will his own rocket into existence. Then he decided he wanted it to be reusable, so he willed that into existence when everyone said it was impossible. Then he wanted to strap three of them together, so he willed that into existence. Then we wanted electric cars, so he willed into existence not only the best electric car ever, but one of the best cars ever, period (Model S) etc. etc. I think it unwise to underestimate Musk.

setquk 8y ago
Yep. He delivers. People are too obsessed about when. Shits’s complicated.
- calinet6 8y ago
  Not so worried about when, there's no rush. It's just a shame to see the chaos where there doesn't have to be, that's all.
  - jexah 8y ago
    That's just the thing, Tesla isn't creating the chaos, everybody else is. Tesla setting huge goals and trying their best to reach them, no doubt exceeding Musk's true expectations. Companies fail to meet goals all the time, most of the time because the goals have been set intentionally unreachable.
- atomical 8y ago
  For shareholders and customers that makes sense. For everyone else not so much. There are a lot of people in the everyone else column who are happy to see an entrepreneur take risks.
  - grecy 8y ago
    > who are happy to see an entrepreneur take risks. Are there really? I feel like a massive percentage of people are against Musk and Tesla precisely because he's trying to do something new, and take some risks. It's like a majority of Americans don't want anyone to do anything radical anymore, like they're happy to stagnate.
    - HeyLaughingBoy 8y ago
      You're overthinking this. What's going on is simply that when you say you're going to do something, people (especially the ones who've lent/invested money) expect you to do it. If you don't then you rapidly lose credibility.
- agumonkey 8y ago
  When does matter a bit, there was a probability that other manufacturers might swipe the market under Musk feet
calinet6 8y ago
First, large-scale manufacturing is a different thing from rocket engineering. It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly. He may never be able to learn at all—beliefs about people and management are far more hard-set than those about physics and engineering. That said, I think he'll get it done, but it's still arrogant (and inefficient) to take all of the learnings of manufacturing and management of the past 30 years and try to "start fresh." It's a waste. It's a waste of money, a waste of time, a waste of human capital and life and happiness. He's expending energy to learn things we've already learned. That's the sad part. I'm sure he'll get it done, but at what cost? At what despair and unnecessary strife? And at what level of waste and inefficiency. Sure, you'll say, necessity is the mother of invention, and new knowledge and innovation will come out of this struggle—but how can we know even more could not be done in a better process? We can't, and this naysaying will go by the wayside. As perhaps it should.
- grey-area 8y ago
  I think the reason he does it this way is to avoid reaching the same local maximum competitors are already stuck in - you can’t out-compete incumbents with more of the same but a little better. It is arrogant in many ways but there is a reason behind it, it’s not just hubris, and crucially it requires finding the right frustrated talented people and listening to them, it would be a mistake to think he comes up with all the ideas. I disagree that he’s not good at managing people, he just has very different success criteria, which do not highly rate the welfare of his workers. I think like Jobs, Bezos and many other successful business leaders he’s good at finding talented people, selling them a dream, and wringing every last ounce of life out of them in service of his dreams, then finding someone else to keep it going. A lot of people will be broken along the way, a lot of people will produce their best work.
  - HeyLaughingBoy 8y ago
    It's possibly(?) tangential to the discussion, but I would say that if he does not "highly rate the welfare of his workers" then, he is by definition not good at managing people.
ericb 8y ago
Then he willed it to land standing up. On a barge. In the ocean. And an assembly line. In a tent. From a bunch of scraps.
- antoniuschan99 8y ago
  It's starting to sound like the first chapter in the old testament haha
  - oddsockmachine 8y ago
    I was thinking more the first Iron Man movie
Robotbeat 8y ago
...and generally speaking, human. Musk might be able to work longer hours without having a stroke, but ultimately he's not magic, and lots of other people can do this, too. Let's see more people try. (But I’d suggest just one major company at a time, spend more time with your spouse and kids.)
s2g 8y ago
Oh good, the cult of Elon is in full force.
williamscales 8y ago
I don't think anyone said you couldn't land a rocket. Folks have been looking in to doing that for a long time, we just didn't have the technology or enough investment in space to make it happen. He was just one of the first ones to come along and bring enough capital and technology to bear on the problem. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely admire what Elon Musk is capable of. But it's worth being realistic when we draw opinions of leaders lest we fall victim to hero worship.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

comboy 8y ago

One can judge from the distance and think he has better understanding of the problem, than a person who is immersed in it most of his waking hours and surrounded by people specialized at solving it.

agumonkey 8y ago

I didn't mean it this way. I believe Musk has enough self confidence and college education to think he can crack through things like he did with SpaceX (remember they almost died and now vertical reusable landing is almost the new normal). So if he manages to keep Tesla growing, he'll fix things on the way. Maybe he'll have time to read about Toyota :)

calinet6 8y ago
I do think he'll learn, and I trust that he's a pretty decent person all things considered. Hope it goes well for them!