You're probably not going to be as good at it as a VC or Angel investor and there's still a relatively low chance of picking a winner for them so I'd say yes, l

You're probably not going to be as good at it as a VC or Angel investor and there's still a relatively low chance of picking a winner for them so I'd say yes, luck is probably going to be a significant factor. You should be able to improve your odds in theory by taking into account some of the same factors that successful investors look at but since they still rely on a portfolio to make a decent return and you can't realistically 'invest' in as many companies as an employee as they aim to you're still going to be quite luck dependent.