5 ms·

There is a surprise on Thursday (if not before). If the prisoner is alive on Thursday at noon he will either be surprised to find he is to be hanged on Thursda

• everybodyknows 8y ago
  Right, so if we suppose that the "punch-line" statement, describing the prisoner's state of mind, is true: > the executioner knocks on the prisoner's door at noon on Wednesday — which, despite all the above, was an utter surprise to him. Then it follows there are two false epistemological claims in the text. First by the judge: >He will not know the day of the hanging until the executioner knocks on his cell door at noon that day. This is false, as you correctly reason, since a knock on Friday would come as no surprise (at the time it occurred). The second false claim, this time by the narrator, reinforces the first: >Everything the judge said came true. Not every claim the judge asserted was tested by the recounted physical events: There was no knock on Friday.
• robocat 8y ago
  > 50% expectation for either Incorrect. Not getting hanged is also a solution, which doesn't allow induction.
• p1esk 8y ago
  he will either be surprised to find he is to be hanged on Thursday, or surprised to find it will be Friday The judge says the prisoner would be surprised exactly when the knock on the door happens (not before). As a consequence, the prisoner is right to believe he won't be hanged at all (following his reasoning), but as a consequence of that, he is surprised when the knock happens. In turn, as a consequence of that, the judge is right. Therefore, both the prisoner, and the judge are correct. Thus the paradox.