Do you truly think that Diaspora has a significant chance where it is positioned right now to overtake Facebook or gain a significant part of their market share

Do you truly think that Diaspora has a significant chance where it is positioned right now to overtake Facebook or gain a significant part of their market share in even 3-7 years? Think of all of the really major open-source projects. Now think to yourself, if I was a VC, would I have put money into those developing those projects if my goal was to have at least 10x return? Now think about those projects once more. Was there any single product significantly established in the same market that those products had to overcome when they started, say with the size and spending of Facebook, with a recent movie out about their founder?