3 ms·

I think you’re missing a few things here. Kraken is the only exchange that has a USD-tether pair. It is not trivial to be an active trader on Kraken who can fre

by b1daly 8y ago

I think you’re missing a few things here. Kraken is the only exchange that has a USD-tether pair. It is not trivial to be an active trader on Kraken who can freely move in an out of tether and USD. Most of the holders of Tether don’t have access to a market to exchange for dollars. So you’ve exchanged 10m tethers for Bitcoins to users who can’t sell them back for dollars, which will greatly diminish selling pressure. If you are wash trading, you are not giving up valuable dollars for questionable tethers, that’s the whole point of wash trading! Kraken could can just provide heavy discounts to the wash trader to minimize slippage to trading fees (which I think they do). Skeptics of the conspiracy, scam theory about tether basically use as their main argument a variation of yours: the bottom line being the market, as it is, believes Tether is not a scam, or the peg would simply not hold. The reasons individuals believe one thing or another is inscrutable, but the key to this scam is opacity by the entity that creates the tokens. As long as Bitfinex can maintain the belief that they are backing each tether with a new dollar, there is no way to tell if the 50million new tethers were printed from “thin air” or purchased by millionaires. Once the house of cards is built up, the holders of these related assets have a strong motivation to maintain the belief that tether is a real dollar backed asset. That really helps keep the peg at unity, until it doesn’t. One of the most absurd things about this, is that tether says they are under no obligation to redeem tethers for dollars. That alone is as serious red flag. Right now there seem to be enough suckers who are willing to play this game of “musical chairs” and do whatever they can to keep the music from stopping.

darawk 8y ago
> I think you’re missing a few things here. Kraken is the only exchange that has a USD-tether pair No it isn't. Bittrex has both a real USD pair and a TrueUSD (audited, US-based) pair. Binance has a TrueUSD pair. > It is not trivial to be an active trader on Kraken who can freely move in an out of tether and USD. Yes it is. I have a kraken account. I've traded Tether/USD plenty. I have no special privileges. > Most of the holders of Tether don’t have access to a market to exchange for dollars. Yes they do. See, first two answers. > If you are wash trading, you are not giving up valuable dollars for questionable tethers, that’s the whole point of wash trading! Kraken could can just provide heavy discounts to the wash trader to minimize slippage to trading fees (which I think they do). Ok, and this accomplishes what? > Skeptics of the conspiracy, scam theory about tether basically use as their main argument a variation of yours: the bottom line being the market, as it is, believes Tether is not a scam, or the peg would simply not hold. I'm not actually making that argument. The argument i'm making is that this 'wash trading' theory is stupid, because there is no reason to wash trade. The only entity that would have any interest in wash trading Tether is Kraken itself, to make the market appear more liquid, and attract real trading activity. But if that were the case, that has no bearing on the Tether-Bitfinex conspiracy theory and just isn't all that nefarious an activity. Nobody has provided any compelling reason why anyone would be interested in falsifying trades on this Tether market. In the absence of any motive, i'm skeptical both that it's happening at all, and that if it is, it has any meaning whatsoever. That being said, Tether itself may or may not still be a conspiracy. These things are unrelated in my mind. Though, on balance, I think I lean towards thinking it's not a conspiracy, though for other reasons than this.
- b1daly 8y ago
  Wow, you are demonstrating a high level off cognitive dissonance here. I claimed that Kraken was the only place that regular traders could trade a USD-USDT pair. You try to argue I’m wrong by pointing to an exchange that has a USD-TrueUSD pair? Bittrex does not have a USD-USDT pair available for regular traders. They are literally just testing this service this week with a limited pool of users. Here’s what they are said in what is the most recent post on their news blog, May 31, 2018: https://support.bittrex.com/hc/en-us/articles/360004397871-Bittrex-Announces-Introduction-of-US-Dollar-Fiat-Trading https://support.bittrex.com/hc/en-us/articles/360004397871-B... >During this first phase, fiat trading will be limited to approved corporate customers in the United States located in Washington State, California, New York and Montana. Qualified international customers may participate in the market as well. Like all customers who want to be active on Bittrex, fiat customers will be required to submit to both the standard registration process --including proof that they are operating in qualified U.S. or international regions -- as well as other specific fiat terms and conditions. You are trippin’ As to who might have a vested interest in maintaining the appearance of the dollar-tether peg, come on. That’s not too hard to figure out.
  - darawk 8y ago
    > Wow, you are demonstrating a high level off cognitive dissonance here. I claimed that Kraken was the only place that regular traders could trade a USD-USDT pair. You try to argue I’m wrong by pointing to an exchange that has a USD-TrueUSD pair? Yes, and I stated why I thought that was relevant. Feel free to provide a counter-argument. You realize that any supposed 'USD' pair is equivalent to a promise to pay you USD by the entity that issues it, right? Which means that a USD pair and a USD-backed token are literally the same thing: Promises to pay USD. How meaningful they are is contingent upon the trustworthiness of the issuing entity. TrueUSD is a regularly audited US-based company with real VC backing and transparent accounting. TrueUSD is much more meaningful than a Bittrex or Kraken USD pair. > Bittrex does not have a USD-USDT pair available for regular traders. They are literally just testing this service this week with a limited pool of users. They've been testing it longer than that, and a decent number of people have access to it. > As to who might have a vested interest in maintaining the appearance of the dollar-tether peg, come on. That’s not too hard to figure out. I didn't say that. I asked why someone would be interested in wash trading. Re-read what I actually wrote, and feel free to respond to literally any of the substance of it.

by b1daly 8y ago

darawk 8y ago

> I think you’re missing a few things here. Kraken is the only exchange that has a USD-tether pair No it isn't. Bittrex has both a real USD pair and a TrueUSD (audited, US-based) pair. Binance has a TrueUSD pair. > It is not trivial to be an active trader on Kraken who can freely move in an out of tether and USD. Yes it is. I have a kraken account. I've traded Tether/USD plenty. I have no special privileges. > Most of the holders of Tether don’t have access to a market to exchange for dollars. Yes they do. See, first two answers. > If you are wash trading, you are not giving up valuable dollars for questionable tethers, that’s the whole point of wash trading! Kraken could can just provide heavy discounts to the wash trader to minimize slippage to trading fees (which I think they do). Ok, and this accomplishes what? > Skeptics of the conspiracy, scam theory about tether basically use as their main argument a variation of yours: the bottom line being the market, as it is, believes Tether is not a scam, or the peg would simply not hold. I'm not actually making that argument. The argument i'm making is that this 'wash trading' theory is stupid, because there is no reason to wash trade. The only entity that would have any interest in wash trading Tether is Kraken itself, to make the market appear more liquid, and attract real trading activity. But if that were the case, that has no bearing on the Tether-Bitfinex conspiracy theory and just isn't all that nefarious an activity. Nobody has provided any compelling reason why anyone would be interested in falsifying trades on this Tether market. In the absence of any motive, i'm skeptical both that it's happening at all, and that if it is, it has any meaning whatsoever. That being said, Tether itself may or may not still be a conspiracy. These things are unrelated in my mind. Though, on balance, I think I lean towards thinking it's not a conspiracy, though for other reasons than this.

b1daly 8y ago
Wow, you are demonstrating a high level off cognitive dissonance here. I claimed that Kraken was the only place that regular traders could trade a USD-USDT pair. You try to argue I’m wrong by pointing to an exchange that has a USD-TrueUSD pair? Bittrex does not have a USD-USDT pair available for regular traders. They are literally just testing this service this week with a limited pool of users. Here’s what they are said in what is the most recent post on their news blog, May 31, 2018: https://support.bittrex.com/hc/en-us/articles/360004397871-Bittrex-Announces-Introduction-of-US-Dollar-Fiat-Trading https://support.bittrex.com/hc/en-us/articles/360004397871-B... >During this first phase, fiat trading will be limited to approved corporate customers in the United States located in Washington State, California, New York and Montana. Qualified international customers may participate in the market as well. Like all customers who want to be active on Bittrex, fiat customers will be required to submit to both the standard registration process --including proof that they are operating in qualified U.S. or international regions -- as well as other specific fiat terms and conditions. You are trippin’ As to who might have a vested interest in maintaining the appearance of the dollar-tether peg, come on. That’s not too hard to figure out.
- darawk 8y ago
  > Wow, you are demonstrating a high level off cognitive dissonance here. I claimed that Kraken was the only place that regular traders could trade a USD-USDT pair. You try to argue I’m wrong by pointing to an exchange that has a USD-TrueUSD pair? Yes, and I stated why I thought that was relevant. Feel free to provide a counter-argument. You realize that any supposed 'USD' pair is equivalent to a promise to pay you USD by the entity that issues it, right? Which means that a USD pair and a USD-backed token are literally the same thing: Promises to pay USD. How meaningful they are is contingent upon the trustworthiness of the issuing entity. TrueUSD is a regularly audited US-based company with real VC backing and transparent accounting. TrueUSD is much more meaningful than a Bittrex or Kraken USD pair. > Bittrex does not have a USD-USDT pair available for regular traders. They are literally just testing this service this week with a limited pool of users. They've been testing it longer than that, and a decent number of people have access to it. > As to who might have a vested interest in maintaining the appearance of the dollar-tether peg, come on. That’s not too hard to figure out. I didn't say that. I asked why someone would be interested in wash trading. Re-read what I actually wrote, and feel free to respond to literally any of the substance of it.