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A 50% mortality rate per year translates into there being a <0.1% chance of living for 10 years. How does that translate into there being "no limit to longevity
by jkingsbery 8y ago
A 50% mortality rate per year translates into there being a <0.1% chance of living for 10 years. How does that translate into there being "no limit to longevity?" I seriously don't get the claim.
- tpeo 8y agoIt means that mortality rate doesn't approach 100% around some given age, which would be the hypothetical biological limit. I don't see the issue.
- repsilat 8y agoRight. "You don't get worse at living after a certain point." Sounds like big news to me even if the "half life" was shorter.
- Rantenki 8y agoIt's not a valid claim IMHO. If you look at the sample size that they're basing it on, you can see that it's shrinking at the attrition rate for what they are measuring. Once you get to 117 years old, there are only a few people worldwide that can be used to determine that survival rate, and those people are already subject to a selection bias of people that are exceedingly long-lived.