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> However, you definitely can use "expected return" to talk about singular events if there are known probabilities involved. Just that "expected" sounds like t
by varjag 8y ago
> However, you definitely can use "expected return" to talk about singular events if there are known probabilities involved.
Just that "expected" sounds like there's a certainty about it. If I lose 100 times in a lottery with 1:500 odds, it does not mean my odds have now improved to 1:400. Playing the lottery 500 times does not give you expected return of 1, the odds are the same 1:500 in every round.
- thethirdone 8y ago> Just that "expected" sounds like there's a certainty about it It does seem give a sense of certainty, but is not how "expect" is used in probability. The expected value is just the average value per attempt as converges as attempts approaches infinity. So its a useful measure of a distribution (which can be used to make informed gambling decisions), but shouldn't be used to make a prediction on any single attempt.