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How do you value BTC? What is a fair price? $1m? $2m? $5bn? $10tn? Do you have a valuation methodology? My biggest issue with BTC is that it's subject to how

How do you value BTC? What is a fair price? $1m? $2m? $5bn? $10tn? Do you have a valuation methodology? My biggest issue with BTC is that it's subject to how the market feels about it. There's no cash flow. When I buy USD, I can by 2yr treasuries yielding ~2.5%.

Blackstone4 8y ago
Ouch - I was downvoted when i felt like I made some reasonable arguments without attacking anyone. Why was I downvoted?
- Sjenk 8y ago
  I guess since you posted a comment twice. Not that familiair with HN unspoken rules. But I guess HN just like other forums don't appreciate double posts
- nathanaldensr 8y ago
  You're challenging the conventional wisdom about how valuable Bitcoin is. The way I see it, cryptocurrency gets a lot of its "value" from emotion--it signifies what people want to be true. Cryptocurrency is, in some ways, a dream incarnate. It's backed by nothing except the dreams of those who believe in it--and energy expenditure (if one believes that). It's like a religion: Challenge the faith and you will be burned as a heretic, so-to-speak. I think that has a lot to do with why rational comments are down-voted so much on HN. You're assuming the discourse is rational when it is actually quite emotional. Cognitive dissonance abounds.
- marketgod 8y ago
  Remember that most of the people down voting think that the stock market trades on actual financial multipliers like 10x earnings or whatever. Let them miss out on the ride, make your money. You can't convince crazy you just have to let them miss out on the ride.
everdev 8y ago
It's a faith based investment. With a treasury, you are still hoping that the government won't default, which is why some government's notes have higher rates than others. Same thing with municipal bonds. The market determines the price of anything based on supply and demand (which includes a risk calculation).
- Blackstone4 8y ago
  There's a difference between the market price and valuation. “Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get” An investor might determine what they would be willing to pay for an asset (i.e. a fair valuation) and compare it to the market price. If it's selling for less than what they believe to be fair market value then it's a buy. The same methodology can be applied to sell decisions. If I buy a house to let, I can create a model to project future cash flows derived from rent, costs, taxes etc. I can then discount the cash flows (DCF) with my target rate of return to get a valuation. Yes there are variables that are difficult to take into account i.e. likelihood of government default. It's not possible to apply a cash flow valuation to BTC. Yes there is a market which determines the price of something. But that does not necessarily result in a reasonable price.
slededit 8y ago
The value comes from the same place of gold, and to a slightly lesser extent fiat currency. When something is used as a medium of exchange the item itself gains value from this utility. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, but it does derive value from how it is used write large. A bet on BTC is a bet its use will increase.

Blackstone4 8y ago

Ouch - I was downvoted when i felt like I made some reasonable arguments without attacking anyone. Why was I downvoted?

Sjenk 8y ago
I guess since you posted a comment twice. Not that familiair with HN unspoken rules. But I guess HN just like other forums don't appreciate double posts
nathanaldensr 8y ago
You're challenging the conventional wisdom about how valuable Bitcoin is. The way I see it, cryptocurrency gets a lot of its "value" from emotion--it signifies what people want to be true. Cryptocurrency is, in some ways, a dream incarnate. It's backed by nothing except the dreams of those who believe in it--and energy expenditure (if one believes that). It's like a religion: Challenge the faith and you will be burned as a heretic, so-to-speak. I think that has a lot to do with why rational comments are down-voted so much on HN. You're assuming the discourse is rational when it is actually quite emotional. Cognitive dissonance abounds.
marketgod 8y ago
Remember that most of the people down voting think that the stock market trades on actual financial multipliers like 10x earnings or whatever. Let them miss out on the ride, make your money. You can't convince crazy you just have to let them miss out on the ride.

everdev 8y ago

It's a faith based investment. With a treasury, you are still hoping that the government won't default, which is why some government's notes have higher rates than others. Same thing with municipal bonds. The market determines the price of anything based on supply and demand (which includes a risk calculation).

Blackstone4 8y ago
There's a difference between the market price and valuation. “Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get” An investor might determine what they would be willing to pay for an asset (i.e. a fair valuation) and compare it to the market price. If it's selling for less than what they believe to be fair market value then it's a buy. The same methodology can be applied to sell decisions. If I buy a house to let, I can create a model to project future cash flows derived from rent, costs, taxes etc. I can then discount the cash flows (DCF) with my target rate of return to get a valuation. Yes there are variables that are difficult to take into account i.e. likelihood of government default. It's not possible to apply a cash flow valuation to BTC. Yes there is a market which determines the price of something. But that does not necessarily result in a reasonable price.

slededit 8y ago

The value comes from the same place of gold, and to a slightly lesser extent fiat currency. When something is used as a medium of exchange the item itself gains value from this utility. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, but it does derive value from how it is used write large. A bet on BTC is a bet its use will increase.