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On the other hand, it's possible that the reason car alarms are mostly false alarms these days is due to the huge decline in auto theft rates over the last 30 y

On the other hand, it's possible that the reason car alarms are mostly false alarms these days is due to the huge decline in auto theft rates over the last 30 years [1], which is due at least in part to the prevalence of car alarms. [1] https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/east/2014/12/17/350442.htm https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/east/2014/12/17/350442...

mikestew 8y ago
30 years ago I could open a locked car, and get it started and driveable in sixty seconds (the steering wheel lock will be collateral damage). Not a car thief, but I was a mechanic. But now there are better door locks, a lot of cars don't even have a key-locked wheel lock, and you don't just short two wires under the dash to start it like the movies. Granted, a career thief probably has quick workarounds for all of this, but the bar for quick car theft went up from "low-life with a slim jim", I think. Point is, yeah, car alarms likely had some effect, but was it more or less than the fact that cars are just generally harder to steal now? And I have no idea what the answer is.
- loeg 8y ago
  > you don't just short two wires under the dash to start it like the movies. Just plug in your ODB-II tool and press start :-).
  - namibj 8y ago
    After pressing the FPGA-based keyfob. When not used for cracking keyfobs, it can also do other misc work.
decebalus1 8y ago
It's also possible it's because the number of movies Steven Seagal starred in for the past 30 years has also declined [1]. Car alarms can deter joyriders but don't do much for the professional car thief [2] ([3] has more references). Also, as an anecdote, there's been a bunch of car prowls in my apartment building parking lot for the past year or so. The victims were high-end vehicles with valuables in-sight (briefcases, dashcams, etc..) and they all had car alarms. [1] http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations [2] https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=165687 https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=1656... [3] https://priceonomics.com/are-car-alarms-completely-fucking-useless/ https://priceonomics.com/are-car-alarms-completely-fucking-u...

mikestew 8y ago

30 years ago I could open a locked car, and get it started and driveable in sixty seconds (the steering wheel lock will be collateral damage). Not a car thief, but I was a mechanic. But now there are better door locks, a lot of cars don't even have a key-locked wheel lock, and you don't just short two wires under the dash to start it like the movies. Granted, a career thief probably has quick workarounds for all of this, but the bar for quick car theft went up from "low-life with a slim jim", I think. Point is, yeah, car alarms likely had some effect, but was it more or less than the fact that cars are just generally harder to steal now? And I have no idea what the answer is.

loeg 8y ago
> you don't just short two wires under the dash to start it like the movies. Just plug in your ODB-II tool and press start :-).
- namibj 8y ago
  After pressing the FPGA-based keyfob. When not used for cracking keyfobs, it can also do other misc work.

decebalus1 8y ago

It's also possible it's because the number of movies Steven Seagal starred in for the past 30 years has also declined [1]. Car alarms can deter joyriders but don't do much for the professional car thief [2] ([3] has more references). Also, as an anecdote, there's been a bunch of car prowls in my apartment building parking lot for the past year or so. The victims were high-end vehicles with valuables in-sight (briefcases, dashcams, etc..) and they all had car alarms. [1] http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations [2] https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=165687 https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=1656... [3] https://priceonomics.com/are-car-alarms-completely-fucking-useless/ https://priceonomics.com/are-car-alarms-completely-fucking-u...