5 ms·

31% of likely voters think US civil war likely within 5 years

16 points by mikenyc 8y ago

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
SCAQTony 8y ago
The only scenario I can see of a civil war happening is if it follows the same template or series of events that occurred in 1860. i.e. Some state or states declare independence and create their own currency. I don't think that is going to happen but nationalized terrorism within seem plausible due to the way some "tribes" are advocating violence against journalists.
- Schumer 8y ago
  Sources on the last point please?
  - SCAQTony 8y ago
    "…Right-wing provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos says he was trolling members of the media when he said he couldn’t wait for “vigilante squads” to attack journalists. ..." https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/milo-yiannopoulos-walks-back-original-call-for-violence-against-journalists-says-he-was-trolling https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/milo-yiannopoulos-wa... "After meeting with North Korean dictator, Trump calls press America's 'biggest enemy'" http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/13/media/trump-tweet-media/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/13/media/trump-tweet-media/inde...
dooglius 8y ago
The ordering of the questions [0] strikes me as lending to a priming [1] effect, the first two questions evoke memories of media reports of violence on both sides, which makes the leap to civil war seem more likely by the third question. [0] http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/june_2018/questions_civil_war_june_21_and_24_2018 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ques... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priming_(psychology) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priming_(psychology)
- mikenyc 8y ago
  I agree. There is some priming in the cadence of the questions. It's also likely that given the state of civic knowledge and education in the country that respondents conflated something like "violence" or "minor fighting with a political tinge" to "civil war" without really understanding how immense of a thing a US civil war actually would be. But still, to me, even the idea that a much smaller percentage of Americans (let's say 15%) could imagine a civil war happening in the next 5 years was shocking on its face, and worthy of awareness and discussion.
toasterlovin 8y ago
I can't actually see how a civil war would work mechanically. The right side of the political divide makes up almost all of the armed forces, first responders, and police; their civilians also own most of the guns; and they control the food supply. Beyond all of that, though, my reading of history is that civil wars usually have a geographic component. So, there is usually one region (that may be home to a different ethnic group) which elevates it's political grievances into actual war. But how would that even work in the United States? This isn't like the US civil war where it was the North against the South. This would be geographically isolated urban cores versus their surrounding suburbs and rural areas. And, finally, I don't think Americans have the stomach for casualties. Life is pretty damned good here. So good that we soured on Iraq and Afghanistan after a few thousand casualties (where we never even had to look at dead bodies, just flag-draped caskets). Somehow I don't see us being okay with the corpses of our dead children littering the streets of Los Angeles or Manhattan.
- mikenyc 8y ago
  To me, the interesting thing about these survey results was not that they convinced me this was actually likely to happen, but rather to contemplate that 31% of Americans (and likely voters at that) could actually believe this is likely in the next 5 years. What does that say about the state of America? As I noted in another comment, at least somewhat it probably says people aren't very conscious of the immensity of what a US civil war means. So that speaks to civics and educational issues, which are real and relevant. But I would just say that in a society people's feelings matter, whether rational or irrational. Irrational feelings lead to real world outcomes all the time. So even if you think that believing this outcome is likely in the next 5 years is extremely irrational, the fact that a significant proportion of the voting population could believe this has real-world implications.
  - justin66 8y ago
    > So even if you think that believing this outcome is likely in the next 5 years is extremely irrational, the fact that a significant proportion of the voting population could believe this has real-world implications. We're in a country where a lot of people believe the president when he says three million people voted illegally. [1] If you believe in the existence of those imaginary people, you might wonder what will happen when they take up arms. [1] http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/nov/28/donald-trump/donald-trumps-pants-fire-claim-millions-illegal-vo/ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/nov/...
cyberpip 8y ago
Great discussion on https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/8t4py1/would_a_regular_us_citizen_in_1860_be_able_to_see/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/8t4py1/would... recently about the lead up to the American civil war and how people were able to see it coming.
king_nothing 8y ago
I thought this was a possibility, however there’s not much to fight for, except chaos, discontent and something new, so it’s more likely America/western civ would collapse within 0-30 years (collapse tends to precipitate quickly), if nothing major socio-politically is done to stabilize the ship. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/29/cal-thomas-america-shows-decline-signs-of-empires-/ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/29/cal-thomas-... “America is Done” Chris Hedges on C-Span https://youtu.be/8AfPaAnzyHI https://youtu.be/8AfPaAnzyHI “Decline of Western Civilization” Peter Thiel https://youtu.be/0JTnztV5oJQ https://youtu.be/0JTnztV5oJQ “Decline of Empires” Chalmers Johnson https://youtu.be/Q2CCs-x9q9U https://youtu.be/Q2CCs-x9q9U ^- These aren’t exactly conspiracy theorist-centric nutters, but people known for being more right than most people v- Btw, just in-case anyone isn’t convinced yet corporate media will “save us” Phil Donahue on being booted from MSNBC https://youtu.be/ozxzNjRqCiE https://youtu.be/ozxzNjRqCiE Jesse Ventura on govt abuse of secrecy and Wikileaks https://youtu.be/KFuqRTHXbpM https://youtu.be/KFuqRTHXbpM Cenk Uygur on “mutual-separation” from MSNBC https://youtu.be/HrKKkGl3TnY https://youtu.be/HrKKkGl3TnY https://youtu.be/FEYkBA5ze6c https://youtu.be/FEYkBA5ze6c https://youtu.be/pGtrnXI0ai4 https://youtu.be/pGtrnXI0ai4 Thom Hartmann on an impeding collapse (wrong year, obviously) due to massive corruption and inequality https://youtu.be/rvxhh3hjfSs https://youtu.be/rvxhh3hjfSs Amy Goodman arrested for doing her job https://youtu.be/DtIYmOLkgic https://youtu.be/DtIYmOLkgic Assassinations of journalists continues to climb worldwide, and when it and censorship happens in your country, that’s when the real decline accelerates https://cpj.org https://cpj.org ^- It’s hard to say when/how much will happen or how constructive the grassroot can be because most people tend to automatically dismiss these “dots” as “conspiracy theorist rhetoric” that “doesn’t affect them.” Occasionally possible: ”It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair

16 points by mikenyc 8y ago

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

The only scenario I can see of a civil war happening is if it follows the same template or series of events that occurred in 1860. i.e. Some state or states declare independence and create their own currency. I don't think that is going to happen but nationalized terrorism within seem plausible due to the way some "tribes" are advocating violence against journalists.

Schumer 8y ago
Sources on the last point please?
- SCAQTony 8y ago
  "…Right-wing provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos says he was trolling members of the media when he said he couldn’t wait for “vigilante squads” to attack journalists. ..." https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/milo-yiannopoulos-walks-back-original-call-for-violence-against-journalists-says-he-was-trolling https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/milo-yiannopoulos-wa... "After meeting with North Korean dictator, Trump calls press America's 'biggest enemy'" http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/13/media/trump-tweet-media/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/13/media/trump-tweet-media/inde...

dooglius 8y ago

The ordering of the questions [0] strikes me as lending to a priming [1] effect, the first two questions evoke memories of media reports of violence on both sides, which makes the leap to civil war seem more likely by the third question. [0] http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/june_2018/questions_civil_war_june_21_and_24_2018 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ques... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priming_(psychology) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priming_(psychology)

mikenyc 8y ago
I agree. There is some priming in the cadence of the questions. It's also likely that given the state of civic knowledge and education in the country that respondents conflated something like "violence" or "minor fighting with a political tinge" to "civil war" without really understanding how immense of a thing a US civil war actually would be. But still, to me, even the idea that a much smaller percentage of Americans (let's say 15%) could imagine a civil war happening in the next 5 years was shocking on its face, and worthy of awareness and discussion.

toasterlovin 8y ago

I can't actually see how a civil war would work mechanically. The right side of the political divide makes up almost all of the armed forces, first responders, and police; their civilians also own most of the guns; and they control the food supply. Beyond all of that, though, my reading of history is that civil wars usually have a geographic component. So, there is usually one region (that may be home to a different ethnic group) which elevates it's political grievances into actual war. But how would that even work in the United States? This isn't like the US civil war where it was the North against the South. This would be geographically isolated urban cores versus their surrounding suburbs and rural areas. And, finally, I don't think Americans have the stomach for casualties. Life is pretty damned good here. So good that we soured on Iraq and Afghanistan after a few thousand casualties (where we never even had to look at dead bodies, just flag-draped caskets). Somehow I don't see us being okay with the corpses of our dead children littering the streets of Los Angeles or Manhattan.

mikenyc 8y ago
To me, the interesting thing about these survey results was not that they convinced me this was actually likely to happen, but rather to contemplate that 31% of Americans (and likely voters at that) could actually believe this is likely in the next 5 years. What does that say about the state of America? As I noted in another comment, at least somewhat it probably says people aren't very conscious of the immensity of what a US civil war means. So that speaks to civics and educational issues, which are real and relevant. But I would just say that in a society people's feelings matter, whether rational or irrational. Irrational feelings lead to real world outcomes all the time. So even if you think that believing this outcome is likely in the next 5 years is extremely irrational, the fact that a significant proportion of the voting population could believe this has real-world implications.
- justin66 8y ago
  > So even if you think that believing this outcome is likely in the next 5 years is extremely irrational, the fact that a significant proportion of the voting population could believe this has real-world implications. We're in a country where a lot of people believe the president when he says three million people voted illegally. [1] If you believe in the existence of those imaginary people, you might wonder what will happen when they take up arms. [1] http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/nov/28/donald-trump/donald-trumps-pants-fire-claim-millions-illegal-vo/ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/nov/...

cyberpip 8y ago

Great discussion on https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/8t4py1/would_a_regular_us_citizen_in_1860_be_able_to_see/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/8t4py1/would... recently about the lead up to the American civil war and how people were able to see it coming.

king_nothing 8y ago

I thought this was a possibility, however there’s not much to fight for, except chaos, discontent and something new, so it’s more likely America/western civ would collapse within 0-30 years (collapse tends to precipitate quickly), if nothing major socio-politically is done to stabilize the ship. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/29/cal-thomas-america-shows-decline-signs-of-empires-/ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/29/cal-thomas-... “America is Done” Chris Hedges on C-Span https://youtu.be/8AfPaAnzyHI https://youtu.be/8AfPaAnzyHI “Decline of Western Civilization” Peter Thiel https://youtu.be/0JTnztV5oJQ https://youtu.be/0JTnztV5oJQ “Decline of Empires” Chalmers Johnson https://youtu.be/Q2CCs-x9q9U https://youtu.be/Q2CCs-x9q9U ^- These aren’t exactly conspiracy theorist-centric nutters, but people known for being more right than most people v- Btw, just in-case anyone isn’t convinced yet corporate media will “save us” Phil Donahue on being booted from MSNBC https://youtu.be/ozxzNjRqCiE https://youtu.be/ozxzNjRqCiE Jesse Ventura on govt abuse of secrecy and Wikileaks https://youtu.be/KFuqRTHXbpM https://youtu.be/KFuqRTHXbpM Cenk Uygur on “mutual-separation” from MSNBC https://youtu.be/HrKKkGl3TnY https://youtu.be/HrKKkGl3TnY https://youtu.be/FEYkBA5ze6c https://youtu.be/FEYkBA5ze6c https://youtu.be/pGtrnXI0ai4 https://youtu.be/pGtrnXI0ai4 Thom Hartmann on an impeding collapse (wrong year, obviously) due to massive corruption and inequality https://youtu.be/rvxhh3hjfSs https://youtu.be/rvxhh3hjfSs Amy Goodman arrested for doing her job https://youtu.be/DtIYmOLkgic https://youtu.be/DtIYmOLkgic Assassinations of journalists continues to climb worldwide, and when it and censorship happens in your country, that’s when the real decline accelerates https://cpj.org https://cpj.org ^- It’s hard to say when/how much will happen or how constructive the grassroot can be because most people tend to automatically dismiss these “dots” as “conspiracy theorist rhetoric” that “doesn’t affect them.” Occasionally possible: ”It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair