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I'd like to add an observation regarding the application layer, as well as a prediction: The last ten years have largely seen the internet (and technology in g

I'd like to add an observation regarding the application layer, as well as a prediction: The last ten years have largely seen the internet (and technology in general) making things more convenient for the majority of the population: Think phones / "the internet at your fingertips", cloud apps that synchronize our data across devices, content platforms like Netflix & Spotify & <insert your favorite newspaper> which allow us to consume our favorite content anywhere, anytime, and online stores like Amazon that allow us to get our hands on practically any product we could wish for—now even within the same day. There are also fitness trackers which record all the data for us that, previously, we would have had to measure and jot down manually (which is why we didn't), and messengers like WhatsApp which allow us to get in touch with anyone at any time. (Anyone remember how the contacts we had in AIM/YIM/ICQ/MSN messenger used to be online only when they were at their computer? How annoying it used to be to exchange files and photos with friends?) We even have personal assistants now which remind us of upcoming events, notify us about traffic jams on our way to work and allow us to communicate with our devices through speech and thus in a more natural way. Finally, don't forget news feeds and content aggregators like Facebook, Instagram and Google News which make it so effortless to consume content that, for many users, they have basically become the only portal to the internet and any content outside these platforms is basically invisible unless some post on, say, Facebook links to it. Which, in turn, implies that providers outside these platforms necessarily have to somehow pick up their users on these platforms and bring them to theirs. (Remember how it used to be the other way around? But how many people really still type in URLs in their browser's address bar these days? How annoying and inconvenient!) At the same time, almost all platforms that have risen over the past ten years are those whose value proposition is precisely this: Convenience. One could even say that the reason today's internet is an internet of monopolies and big walled gardens is that it's more convenient. Even the internet of things basically is/will be nothing else than added convenience (at least when it comes to private consumers). On the other hand, the reason that privacy and security concerns don't matter to the vast majority of internet users is that they are not only not convenient—they are the exact opposite. The same thing goes for the algorithms that tell us what to consume. Even if they all were open-source, who would really take the time to understand how they work? Call me a pessimist but I predict that this trend will prevail. Every consumer-oriented Next Big Thing® will make our lives even easier. At the same time, we will continue to lose control over our data and over what we consume as algorithms dictate our interests. Remember how the internet of the 2000s used to be this promised land where, to us techies, anything seemed to be possible? This internet which was going to be oh-so egalitarian and which promised to bring democracy to the entire world? These times are over. Brave New World and The Circle, here we come.

jeffreyrogers 8y ago
Yes, I think you're right. Most people like the internet the way it is (at least based on their revealed preferences). That said, I'm not sure there is a better model we can replace it with. Pretty much anyone can think of ways the world could be better, but most of those ways aren't feasible in practice. I think the same is true of most alternative visions of the internet.
- TeMPOraL 8y ago
  I'm not sure if I like the revealed preferences explanation. Most people weren't asked how would they like their Internet. They don't have any say in it. They accept what they're given, and don't complain much, because there's no one who listens. Most people flock to various Internet sites and services based on lots of reasons, many of which are unrelated to the actual form of a given service. People stick with Facebook or WhatsApp not because of their superior UX choices, but because of network effects. See what happens every time when Facebook changes something in the UI. People will complain very loudly, but will not go elsewhere, because of network effects. Or consider New York Times. They can do absolutely whatever they want with their site without consequences - their readers go there because it's the New York Times. For lots of people, news sites are not substitute goods. I'd wager that most of the services on the Internet aren't substitute goods for majority of people, for one reason or another.
batteryhorse 8y ago
I also have a prediction: in another 10 years, auto-correct will still be broken. In the 2000s, the Internet still had potential. But, it turns out that human behavior never changes (Machiavelli was right), and now all those wonderful possibilities are gone. Nothing that becomes popular is ever good (for example, popular music) The trick is to keep things small and exclusive, be the first adopter. Once something becomes popular, it's time to move on to the next thing. (One platform that doesn't fit the convenience narrative is Bitcoin)

jeffreyrogers 8y ago

Yes, I think you're right. Most people like the internet the way it is (at least based on their revealed preferences). That said, I'm not sure there is a better model we can replace it with. Pretty much anyone can think of ways the world could be better, but most of those ways aren't feasible in practice. I think the same is true of most alternative visions of the internet.

TeMPOraL 8y ago
I'm not sure if I like the revealed preferences explanation. Most people weren't asked how would they like their Internet. They don't have any say in it. They accept what they're given, and don't complain much, because there's no one who listens. Most people flock to various Internet sites and services based on lots of reasons, many of which are unrelated to the actual form of a given service. People stick with Facebook or WhatsApp not because of their superior UX choices, but because of network effects. See what happens every time when Facebook changes something in the UI. People will complain very loudly, but will not go elsewhere, because of network effects. Or consider New York Times. They can do absolutely whatever they want with their site without consequences - their readers go there because it's the New York Times. For lots of people, news sites are not substitute goods. I'd wager that most of the services on the Internet aren't substitute goods for majority of people, for one reason or another.

batteryhorse 8y ago

I also have a prediction: in another 10 years, auto-correct will still be broken. In the 2000s, the Internet still had potential. But, it turns out that human behavior never changes (Machiavelli was right), and now all those wonderful possibilities are gone. Nothing that becomes popular is ever good (for example, popular music) The trick is to keep things small and exclusive, be the first adopter. Once something becomes popular, it's time to move on to the next thing. (One platform that doesn't fit the convenience narrative is Bitcoin)