Any of the options you listed above is a possible scenario. I would add, as Thiel says, that the reason recessions happened so often after 1960s was because peo

Any of the options you listed above is a possible scenario. I would add, as Thiel says, that the reason recessions happened so often after 1960s was because people's expectation of growth has been more optimistic than the real economy growth. This resulted in over-leveraging and over-buying of entire asset classes which eventually caused a bubble. Here's a talk I found interesting regarding growth and the future of the economy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKLDevYyE9I&index=13&t=0s&list=LL60XAnYR5NWk1eI9brmJ-jQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKLDevYyE9I&index=13&t=0s&li... One relevant part I liked regarding the Madoff scandal: Obviously, you were like how could these people be so stupid to give this person all this money? Didn't they read the details? ... But one of the reasons it happened, psychologically, was because people thought 8-10% with 0 risk was perfectly normal. That's why nobody asked any questions.