10 ms·

Barents Sea seems to have crossed a climate tipping point

74 points by okket 8y ago

andyjohnson0 8y ago
"Many of the threats we know are associated with climate change are slow moving. Gradually rising seas, a steady uptick in extreme weather events, and more all mean that change will come gradually to much of the globe." Wicked Problems [1] are going to kick our arses over the next century, and I don't see how we're going to get through it without large-scale death and horror. There just isn't the political or social will to address the problems - and if we ever do get our act together then I can't see how it'll be anything other than too late. Mose things on HN seem utterly trivial when I'm reminded of this. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problem
- ThomPete 8y ago
  Personally, I would worry more about a meteor wiping out humanity than climate change. There isn't political or social will because those on the extreme ends of both sides are controlling it making it impossible to meet somewhere in the middle. Which is what politics have to do to move anywhere. Many of us understand very well that the climate is changing and that humans might have something to do with it, we just don't know to what extent. But even posing such an idea will get you put into the "climate denier" category in a heartbeat and stop all rational discussion. There are other ways to think about this. Here is one. Humans have historically been living at the mercy of nature, nature is rather unforgiving and quite harsh. Over the time we have adjusted to climate change and we always will have to as the climate will always be changing. I would personally rather be in our current situation and have a fighting chance to improve than being left with the chances I had as a person 200 years ago for even basic natural causes. The wicked problem isn't that there isn't political will but that we can't both secure the continued prosperity of humanity and at the same time not have an impact on the environment we live. The way out of our problems is not to stop up but to continue improving technology and energy utilization. A great start would be to get back to nuclear but I am under no illusion that there are many rationally minded people left in the environmental organizations anymore.
  - blindwatchmaker 8y ago
    > Many of us understand very well that the climate is changing and that humans might have something to do with it, we just don't know to what extent. Could you elaborate? I was under the impression that even conservative estimates by reputable climatologists showed some pretty drastic changes.
    - Filligree 8y ago
      They do, and they've consistently underestimated things so far. The guy's just a denier.
      - jeffreyrogers 8y ago
        That's not true. The climate models typically show larger rises in temperature than have actually happened. I found this within 5 seconds of Googling: https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/ https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-cli... I'm not sure how good the source is, but it is consistent with what I've seen elsewhere.
        polotics 8y ago
        Complex systems have less linearity than expected, but more hysteresis. The flat(ter) early naughties have already been well explained, mostly taking 98 as reference is where the effect comes from, we caught up since then, and ain't slowing down.
        ThomPete 8y ago
        Yet everything is getting better, not worse because we've become better at dealing with issues. The number of people who died from drought has gone down not up according to some studies. Number of people out of extreme poverty is going up is going up not down. https://reason.org/wp-content/uploads/files/deaths_from_extreme_weather_1900_2010.pdf https://reason.org/wp-content/uploads/files/deaths_from_extr... https://ourworldindata.org/famines https://ourworldindata.org/famines And the world is has gotten greener: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fer... And so we are back to the beginning. We don't really know as much as some like to claim. So what is the goal of humanity? How do we measure human flourishing? How do we ensure we still get people to become more resourceful? We can't have our cake and eat it.
- Gravityloss 8y ago
  I don't think CO2 is a wicked problem. The science and the prognosis has been more or less the same for decades. IPCC:s first assessment report was completed 1990 and the Kyoto agreement is from 1992.
  - freehunter 8y ago
    I think the wicked problem is the impacts of climate change, the unpredictable weather patterns. It's really hard to solve the problem of hurricane season expanding, or multiple strong hurricanes per season. It's hard to solve the problem of rising sea levels that cause sea walls to be breached any time there's a moderate storm. It's hard to solve increasing desertification causing water shortages which increases world migration and destabilizes economies leading to the rise in disaffected youth in poverty stricken countries that then leads to a rise in gang violence which then unifies under a banner and attempts to establish a new nation causing a civil war which only further increases world migration further destabilizing economies and politics around the world. It's hard to solve... you get the picture. Rising CO2 levels are the cause of the wicked problems, not the wicked problem itself. We know people are dying from climate change, but determining what will directly cause those deaths and how to prevent them is the problem.
  - andyjohnson0 8y ago
    Slow buildup. Rate of change increasing. Underlying mechanisms likely to be be non-linear. Requires large-scale human cooperation to fix. Powerless people substantially more affected than the powerful.
ForHackernews 8y ago
The whole world is probably past the tipping point. People who talk about halting or reversing climate change at this point are pollyannas or liars. The only thing we can realistically do is try to mitigate the most severe consequences. https://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2-degrees-no-more-fossil-fuels https://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2-degrees-no-more-fos...
- germinalphrase 8y ago
  And yet, I can get fresh ocean fish in the middle of a Minneapolis winter. What a glorious time to be alive! /s
  - saiya-jin 8y ago
    jokes aside, this is mindset of most people - things are good, look my backyard is not burning yet, I can buy so much stuff. I wonder what is the most appropriate course of action - people need to suffer a bit to realize how bad things are and going to be. Comfortable 1st world lives need a bit of a shake up to really change things.
    - justherefortart 8y ago
      There are 7+ billion people on the planet, if climate change kills off 99% we've still got plenty. It's going to suck, but it's of our own making.
  - zgramana 8y ago
    Ironically, it’s the daily activities such as flying glorious ocean fish on aircraft which dump huge amounts of CO2 and water vapor into the stratosphere, or trucking them in refrigerated trucks all across the country, that led to this problem. I know you were /s here, but I point this out because there is a huge amount of personal responsibility implied by climate change. Even if one doesn’t believe humans are driving it, climate change is happening and humans have to deal with it. From a mitigation perspective, individual consumer choices have a large bearing in his successful we will ultimately be. People don’t like the implications, though, and either most people don’t connect the dots or are in denial that their choices count. Sadly, this trend is worse among climate change believers.[1] Kidding aside, ordering less fresh ocean fish during winter is a meaningful personal start. [1] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/7/climate-skeptics-more-eco-friendly-global-warming-/ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/7/climate-skep...

74 points by okket 8y ago

"Many of the threats we know are associated with climate change are slow moving. Gradually rising seas, a steady uptick in extreme weather events, and more all mean that change will come gradually to much of the globe." Wicked Problems [1] are going to kick our arses over the next century, and I don't see how we're going to get through it without large-scale death and horror. There just isn't the political or social will to address the problems - and if we ever do get our act together then I can't see how it'll be anything other than too late. Mose things on HN seem utterly trivial when I'm reminded of this. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problem

ThomPete 8y ago
Personally, I would worry more about a meteor wiping out humanity than climate change. There isn't political or social will because those on the extreme ends of both sides are controlling it making it impossible to meet somewhere in the middle. Which is what politics have to do to move anywhere. Many of us understand very well that the climate is changing and that humans might have something to do with it, we just don't know to what extent. But even posing such an idea will get you put into the "climate denier" category in a heartbeat and stop all rational discussion. There are other ways to think about this. Here is one. Humans have historically been living at the mercy of nature, nature is rather unforgiving and quite harsh. Over the time we have adjusted to climate change and we always will have to as the climate will always be changing. I would personally rather be in our current situation and have a fighting chance to improve than being left with the chances I had as a person 200 years ago for even basic natural causes. The wicked problem isn't that there isn't political will but that we can't both secure the continued prosperity of humanity and at the same time not have an impact on the environment we live. The way out of our problems is not to stop up but to continue improving technology and energy utilization. A great start would be to get back to nuclear but I am under no illusion that there are many rationally minded people left in the environmental organizations anymore.
- blindwatchmaker 8y ago
  > Many of us understand very well that the climate is changing and that humans might have something to do with it, we just don't know to what extent. Could you elaborate? I was under the impression that even conservative estimates by reputable climatologists showed some pretty drastic changes.
  - Filligree 8y ago
    They do, and they've consistently underestimated things so far. The guy's just a denier.
    - jeffreyrogers 8y ago
      That's not true. The climate models typically show larger rises in temperature than have actually happened. I found this within 5 seconds of Googling: https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/ https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-cli... I'm not sure how good the source is, but it is consistent with what I've seen elsewhere.
      - polotics 8y ago
        Complex systems have less linearity than expected, but more hysteresis. The flat(ter) early naughties have already been well explained, mostly taking 98 as reference is where the effect comes from, we caught up since then, and ain't slowing down.
        ThomPete 8y ago
        Yet everything is getting better, not worse because we've become better at dealing with issues. The number of people who died from drought has gone down not up according to some studies. Number of people out of extreme poverty is going up is going up not down. https://reason.org/wp-content/uploads/files/deaths_from_extreme_weather_1900_2010.pdf https://reason.org/wp-content/uploads/files/deaths_from_extr... https://ourworldindata.org/famines https://ourworldindata.org/famines And the world is has gotten greener: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fer... And so we are back to the beginning. We don't really know as much as some like to claim. So what is the goal of humanity? How do we measure human flourishing? How do we ensure we still get people to become more resourceful? We can't have our cake and eat it.
Gravityloss 8y ago
I don't think CO2 is a wicked problem. The science and the prognosis has been more or less the same for decades. IPCC:s first assessment report was completed 1990 and the Kyoto agreement is from 1992.
- freehunter 8y ago
  I think the wicked problem is the impacts of climate change, the unpredictable weather patterns. It's really hard to solve the problem of hurricane season expanding, or multiple strong hurricanes per season. It's hard to solve the problem of rising sea levels that cause sea walls to be breached any time there's a moderate storm. It's hard to solve increasing desertification causing water shortages which increases world migration and destabilizes economies leading to the rise in disaffected youth in poverty stricken countries that then leads to a rise in gang violence which then unifies under a banner and attempts to establish a new nation causing a civil war which only further increases world migration further destabilizing economies and politics around the world. It's hard to solve... you get the picture. Rising CO2 levels are the cause of the wicked problems, not the wicked problem itself. We know people are dying from climate change, but determining what will directly cause those deaths and how to prevent them is the problem.
- andyjohnson0 8y ago
  Slow buildup. Rate of change increasing. Underlying mechanisms likely to be be non-linear. Requires large-scale human cooperation to fix. Powerless people substantially more affected than the powerful.

ForHackernews 8y ago

The whole world is probably past the tipping point. People who talk about halting or reversing climate change at this point are pollyannas or liars. The only thing we can realistically do is try to mitigate the most severe consequences. https://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2-degrees-no-more-fossil-fuels https://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2-degrees-no-more-fos...

germinalphrase 8y ago
And yet, I can get fresh ocean fish in the middle of a Minneapolis winter. What a glorious time to be alive! /s
- saiya-jin 8y ago
  jokes aside, this is mindset of most people - things are good, look my backyard is not burning yet, I can buy so much stuff. I wonder what is the most appropriate course of action - people need to suffer a bit to realize how bad things are and going to be. Comfortable 1st world lives need a bit of a shake up to really change things.
  - justherefortart 8y ago
    There are 7+ billion people on the planet, if climate change kills off 99% we've still got plenty. It's going to suck, but it's of our own making.
- zgramana 8y ago
  Ironically, it’s the daily activities such as flying glorious ocean fish on aircraft which dump huge amounts of CO2 and water vapor into the stratosphere, or trucking them in refrigerated trucks all across the country, that led to this problem. I know you were /s here, but I point this out because there is a huge amount of personal responsibility implied by climate change. Even if one doesn’t believe humans are driving it, climate change is happening and humans have to deal with it. From a mitigation perspective, individual consumer choices have a large bearing in his successful we will ultimately be. People don’t like the implications, though, and either most people don’t connect the dots or are in denial that their choices count. Sadly, this trend is worse among climate change believers.[1] Kidding aside, ordering less fresh ocean fish during winter is a meaningful personal start. [1] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/7/climate-skeptics-more-eco-friendly-global-warming-/ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/7/climate-skep...