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Anthropic arguments are brought up when someone notices the seeming improbability of the universe we observe around us, and whenever someone suggests that it's

Anthropic arguments are brought up when someone notices the seeming improbability of the universe we observe around us, and whenever someone suggests that it's worth digging into that to figure out if there's a deeper reason for it. Why, out of all the possible values they could have taken, did the fundamental constants of our universe take the specific values we observe, and which happen to give rise to complex accumulations of matter and energy? We know of nothing -- yet -- to suggest those particular values were necessary. We know that even tiny changes to those values produce a very different universe in which significant accumulations of matter and energy don't occur. So the particular universe we observe around us appears to be staggeringly improbable. The anthropic argument says "well, we observe it, therefore it happened, therefore don't bother digging any more because that explains that". And it's incredibly unsatisfying. (I should note Barrow and Tipler did go further and proposed a variety of anthropic principles, some of which border on religious, but I'm talking here mainly about the base anthropic argument, as trotted out way back at the start of this comment chain) There are people who look for deeper theories in which the particular conditions we observe do fall out as necessary. There are people who work on multiverse theories where it's inevitable that at least some universes will have conditions amenable to complex accumulations of matter (and thus to conscious observers). There are even people who've gone way out there proposing theories of natural selection applied at the level of whole universes, where arrangements of the constants that help a universe "reproduce" more (usually through forming singularities) are also coincidentally ones which require complex accumulations of matter. There's a whole wealth of things out there to think about and explore. But anthropic arguments tell us to just shrug our shoulders, say it's totally unsurprising that a seemingly-so-unlikely thing happened, and stop trying to explore. (and, of course, they do it in a away that's suspect from both a logical and a probability standpoint)

acqq 8y ago
> the particular universe we observe around us appears to be staggeringly improbable Says who? Anybody who knows what he really talks about will tell you that there aren’t any real physical data to claim any “probability” at all to the physical constants we observe. Let me repeat: you can’t use “probability” for that in mathematical or physical sense. That’s all. Also please quote who actually says that doing experiments to learn more should not be done. If somebody just says that some philosophers talk about something they don’t undestand, and that there isn’t enough data from the experiments we’ve already done to say more, that’s what I can imagine.
- ubernostrum 8y ago
  Says who? Ah, you've got me. Literally no-one in the history of humanity has ever suggested that the particular configuration of our universe, suitable for the formation of complex accumulations of matter, is surprising, improbable or unlikely. I completely fabricated that notion, which had never before been expressed by any person, from whole cloth. Or, you know... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuned_Universe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuned_Universe for an introduction and some bibliography. If and when you eventually come round to the idea that perhaps this is something people have thought, talked, and argued about, we can continue from there, but I'm having an extremely difficult time assuming good faith on your part right now. Incidentally, some of your other questions about whether anyone has ever at any point in history said or done something with respect to anthropic arguments will be touched on even in that introductory Wikipedia article.
  - acqq 8y ago
    “Fine tuned” doesn’t mean “highly improbable” in mathematical or physical sense, because probability is defined only as a limit value in case the number of trials is infinite. Once you have only one outcome there is simply no "improbable" probability. Check your sources if they understand that much. “Fine tuned” claimed by some people is currently only a metaphysical claim: “IF we believe that the physical constants can take any value, then only some exact constants define the Universe with the characteristics like ours.” Note if. There’s no real evidence for that belief, that all the values are/were actually possible. We don’t know if there’s something outside of the results of our current experiments that can support such claim, but given what we exactly know, there’s also no real reason to believe that the other constants were possible. Note: we also have absolutely zero of exact evidence that multiverses exist. So what we actually have is only this Universe of ours, with only the constants that we observe. To paraphrase one joke, if you only saw only one sheep, looking black, through you window in your whole life, moving from left to right, the only valid mathematical and physical claim you can make is "there exists at least one sheep there, whose one side is black." Nothing more unless you make more observations. It's basic scientific literacy. Or to paraphrase another example: you've just went to your search machine and typed "seinfeld license plate picture." You've received the image of the plate on which is "new york assman." Then you go around saying "imagine, from all combinations that I can imagine that the license plates can have, I've got exactly this one. It's so improbable." No, it isn't. Sorry to burst your bubble. Now imagine a relaxed experiment: You live in New York, go outside your door, wait for the first car to pass by. You never saw any license plate in your life, or got any information how they are issued. Then you go out and see the license plate "BGY 3891." You say again "oh look, from all the license plates in New York, if I assume they can have 7 letters and digits, how 'improbable' it is for me to see exactly BGY 3891." Again, in that experiment, there's no mathematical probability involved. You simply observed one license plate. You can invent "fine tuning" story about it, of course: imagine, if the Earth wouldn't exist, there would be no humans, there would be no cars, there would be no license plates, there would be no me making the experiment. Yes. But given all that actually exists, and that you actually went and observed one plate, it's simply the first (the only) license plate you saw. I've also generated a number of random bytes, hex encoded, which can be observed as one big number: 4ad41f5650977f991bb1b1a12a29f1cefe1e6ffede 8bb7d71ab0199832ca60345236ca343a0e3aff02fc 8b8a6d24aef012b3b15e688f3bcd7d82a77e3f0e35 6745b1a6d4bcd1fc90ff4e3ee273cb1f0989fa140a b0a932252e9bf2ac3198b3bb7446a738d252233861 8ba380465181f544d900f8cc20b1544b6022f05bc5 266917d2ef5a8f6afe41245862b66c3c3f1874df84 c3bf6c4362455e2c4c66d08be68c1b1a0ab073619a c5626e7719c4bc75d96ebb42daee9f147fe60aae71 85a482939c62ded6e05ac9728e7edf65c97c868535 63f697a45e75d325824e4bea051c1c3781fa284d86 And wow there are 10 to 556 (1 with 556 zeroes) possible numbers that big, and I've got exactly that one! Isn't it amazing? Hint: it isn't.

acqq 8y ago

> the particular universe we observe around us appears to be staggeringly improbable Says who? Anybody who knows what he really talks about will tell you that there aren’t any real physical data to claim any “probability” at all to the physical constants we observe. Let me repeat: you can’t use “probability” for that in mathematical or physical sense. That’s all. Also please quote who actually says that doing experiments to learn more should not be done. If somebody just says that some philosophers talk about something they don’t undestand, and that there isn’t enough data from the experiments we’ve already done to say more, that’s what I can imagine.

ubernostrum 8y ago
Says who? Ah, you've got me. Literally no-one in the history of humanity has ever suggested that the particular configuration of our universe, suitable for the formation of complex accumulations of matter, is surprising, improbable or unlikely. I completely fabricated that notion, which had never before been expressed by any person, from whole cloth. Or, you know... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuned_Universe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuned_Universe for an introduction and some bibliography. If and when you eventually come round to the idea that perhaps this is something people have thought, talked, and argued about, we can continue from there, but I'm having an extremely difficult time assuming good faith on your part right now. Incidentally, some of your other questions about whether anyone has ever at any point in history said or done something with respect to anthropic arguments will be touched on even in that introductory Wikipedia article.
- acqq 8y ago
  “Fine tuned” doesn’t mean “highly improbable” in mathematical or physical sense, because probability is defined only as a limit value in case the number of trials is infinite. Once you have only one outcome there is simply no "improbable" probability. Check your sources if they understand that much. “Fine tuned” claimed by some people is currently only a metaphysical claim: “IF we believe that the physical constants can take any value, then only some exact constants define the Universe with the characteristics like ours.” Note if. There’s no real evidence for that belief, that all the values are/were actually possible. We don’t know if there’s something outside of the results of our current experiments that can support such claim, but given what we exactly know, there’s also no real reason to believe that the other constants were possible. Note: we also have absolutely zero of exact evidence that multiverses exist. So what we actually have is only this Universe of ours, with only the constants that we observe. To paraphrase one joke, if you only saw only one sheep, looking black, through you window in your whole life, moving from left to right, the only valid mathematical and physical claim you can make is "there exists at least one sheep there, whose one side is black." Nothing more unless you make more observations. It's basic scientific literacy. Or to paraphrase another example: you've just went to your search machine and typed "seinfeld license plate picture." You've received the image of the plate on which is "new york assman." Then you go around saying "imagine, from all combinations that I can imagine that the license plates can have, I've got exactly this one. It's so improbable." No, it isn't. Sorry to burst your bubble. Now imagine a relaxed experiment: You live in New York, go outside your door, wait for the first car to pass by. You never saw any license plate in your life, or got any information how they are issued. Then you go out and see the license plate "BGY 3891." You say again "oh look, from all the license plates in New York, if I assume they can have 7 letters and digits, how 'improbable' it is for me to see exactly BGY 3891." Again, in that experiment, there's no mathematical probability involved. You simply observed one license plate. You can invent "fine tuning" story about it, of course: imagine, if the Earth wouldn't exist, there would be no humans, there would be no cars, there would be no license plates, there would be no me making the experiment. Yes. But given all that actually exists, and that you actually went and observed one plate, it's simply the first (the only) license plate you saw. I've also generated a number of random bytes, hex encoded, which can be observed as one big number: 4ad41f5650977f991bb1b1a12a29f1cefe1e6ffede 8bb7d71ab0199832ca60345236ca343a0e3aff02fc 8b8a6d24aef012b3b15e688f3bcd7d82a77e3f0e35 6745b1a6d4bcd1fc90ff4e3ee273cb1f0989fa140a b0a932252e9bf2ac3198b3bb7446a738d252233861 8ba380465181f544d900f8cc20b1544b6022f05bc5 266917d2ef5a8f6afe41245862b66c3c3f1874df84 c3bf6c4362455e2c4c66d08be68c1b1a0ab073619a c5626e7719c4bc75d96ebb42daee9f147fe60aae71 85a482939c62ded6e05ac9728e7edf65c97c868535 63f697a45e75d325824e4bea051c1c3781fa284d86 And wow there are 10 to 556 (1 with 556 zeroes) possible numbers that big, and I've got exactly that one! Isn't it amazing? Hint: it isn't.