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One way to profit from yield curve inversion: When you see a persistent yield curve inversion, buy the longest maturity treasuries you can find. For example, 3
by apo 8y ago
One way to profit from yield curve inversion:
When you see a persistent yield curve inversion, buy the longest maturity treasuries you can find. For example, 30 years.
This is counterintuitive because shorter maturities (2, 5 years) will yield more when you make your purchase. However, your capital gains will likely compensate for missed yield after the recession has run its course and return a tidy profit.
Alternatively, the economic landscape after the recession may be much worse afterwords. Persistently low interest rates (even deflation) will be in your favor if you decide to keep your treasuries because you'll find nothing to buy with a better risk/return ratio.
Of course, it goes without saying that selling your long treasuries to pay expenses will truncate your returns.
- Bromskloss 8y ago> When you see a persistent yield curve inversion, buy the longest maturity treasuries you can find. For example, 30 years. > This is counterintuitive because shorter maturities (2, 5 years) will yield more when you make your purchase. However, your capital gains will likely compensate for missed yield after the recession has run its course and return a tidy profit. Sorry, could you flesh out the details here? You buy treasuries with a long maturity. What is expected to happen with them after that, and after how long?