6 ms·

As someone who (I'm guessing like a lot of others who post here) didn't really have any financial responsibilities during the .com bust and the real estate bust

by tjr225 8y ago

As someone who (I'm guessing like a lot of others who post here) didn't really have any financial responsibilities during the .com bust and the real estate bust, it will be interesting to have a neck in the game this go around!

fokinsean 8y ago
Same, I remember how much the last one stressed out my Dad. I was in high school and didn't fully appreciate the significance of what was going on. I'm a bit anxious anticipating the next one, but it's part of the game!
- johnchristopher 8y ago
  > [..] part of the game! Why not trying to spice things up with a baby coming at the same time or your significant other being diagnosed with cancer ? /s Wtf, people :|.
  - madamelic 8y ago
    Pessimism is never fun.
    - Bromskloss 8y ago
      Wohoo! :-)
- LarryDarrell 8y ago
  It's not a game. Suicide rates will go up. People in their late 40s are going to get laid off and have a hard time finding equivalent work ever again. There are a lot of people straining themselves to buy a home at this exact moment. Kids graduating with record student debt, thinking they did everything they were supposed to do, will find themselves in an even softer economy. And all of this will happen during a 4 year assault on our social safety nets.
  - kickopotomus 8y ago
    I am most concerned about your last point. I do not believe that student loan debt will be the cause of the next recession but it will definitely be a massive compounding factor after it begins. A bunch of people in there 20s defaulting on loans is going to create one hell of a mess.
- astura 8y ago
  As someone had a horse in the race during the previous recession, it's not some sort of "game" and I find this flippant attitude incredibly off-putting to say the least. These are people's livelihoods we're talking about here. The last recession took a huge emotional toll on me, more than can be explained using words.
  - fokinsean 8y ago
    Sorry my comment came off a little more tongue-in-cheek than I intended. I didn't mean to downplay the seriousness of the topic, it was a bit of nervous laughter if you will. My naivety is apparent and I will treat future discussions like these with more care. Apologies if I struck a nerve.
  - jacquesm 8y ago
    > These are people's livelihoods we're talking about here. You can leave off the 'lihood' bit and it is just as true if not more so. Recessions kill people.
- itgoon 8y ago
  I've been through a few of these, and I disagree with everyone else. It's a game. At least, it's a lot healthier to think of it as a game. Life is full of ups and downs, some of them economic. Yes, this is just another one. Don't despair, things get better. Value your family and friends, and everything will be okay.
  - jessaustin 8y ago
    It may be that the game paradigm leads to more prosperity than the "woe is me no lighthearted talk allowed" paradigm. It occurs to me that we still haven't done a damn thing about 2B2F... those banks with the public backstop seem far more dangerous than some temporary tariffs.
throwaway5752 8y ago
This, in a nutshell, is why the human condition is so tragic. This won't be "interesting", believe me. Watch what happens when the body of startups funded by global pools of capital (which are the underlying source of capital for VCs) sees the NPV of software startups vanish as lower expected investment returns smack up against higher risk-free rates. The current software economy is incredibly leveraged and intertwined. Most startups are not cashflow positive, and they're explanation for that is that they have low CapEx. However, it's all been transferred to OpEx that is the web of mutuality between them. There is a huge body of low quality startups that are going to stop paying monthly Slack, Git(hub/lab), Trello/Atlassian, Twilio, Mongo, every other monthly-billed service, and put the breaks on AWS/GCE/et al spending. The AWS spending, for example, will result in layoffs in Seattle, which will lead to people forced out of their homes and forced sales for losses (which will ruin them financially), and that will result in a cycle of real estate deflation (which, as you saw in 2006, leats to pools of buyers trapped in their home, killing construction and labor mobility). And thankfully we'll have deregulated or de-fanged federal regulators just in time for all of this! WeWork is the obvious first bankruptcy, since they almost entirely exist because of venture funding froth. I don't know who have funded them offhand, but that might result in forced selling of private shares and lower private valuations, with further deflation risks in that sector. Then it will expand to the broader economy. /rant. edit: I worked through both the dot-com and mortgage-backed security fraud crises. They were terrible.
- matte_black 8y ago
  So when WeWork files for bankruptcy is that the signal to start moving into cash?
  - throwaway5752 8y ago
    Sorry for a bit of a meta-reply, but this is kind of the reason for my sadness: there is this sense of isolation/aloofness to your question. The best thing to do is to work hard to prevent this outcome, since it's less than zero sum. I am sorry, but even if I knew your financial situation and goals I wouldn't want to offer investing opinions.

by tjr225 8y ago

fokinsean 8y ago

Same, I remember how much the last one stressed out my Dad. I was in high school and didn't fully appreciate the significance of what was going on. I'm a bit anxious anticipating the next one, but it's part of the game!

johnchristopher 8y ago
> [..] part of the game! Why not trying to spice things up with a baby coming at the same time or your significant other being diagnosed with cancer ? /s Wtf, people :|.
- madamelic 8y ago
  Pessimism is never fun.
  - Bromskloss 8y ago
    Wohoo! :-)
LarryDarrell 8y ago
It's not a game. Suicide rates will go up. People in their late 40s are going to get laid off and have a hard time finding equivalent work ever again. There are a lot of people straining themselves to buy a home at this exact moment. Kids graduating with record student debt, thinking they did everything they were supposed to do, will find themselves in an even softer economy. And all of this will happen during a 4 year assault on our social safety nets.
- kickopotomus 8y ago
  I am most concerned about your last point. I do not believe that student loan debt will be the cause of the next recession but it will definitely be a massive compounding factor after it begins. A bunch of people in there 20s defaulting on loans is going to create one hell of a mess.
astura 8y ago
As someone had a horse in the race during the previous recession, it's not some sort of "game" and I find this flippant attitude incredibly off-putting to say the least. These are people's livelihoods we're talking about here. The last recession took a huge emotional toll on me, more than can be explained using words.
- fokinsean 8y ago
  Sorry my comment came off a little more tongue-in-cheek than I intended. I didn't mean to downplay the seriousness of the topic, it was a bit of nervous laughter if you will. My naivety is apparent and I will treat future discussions like these with more care. Apologies if I struck a nerve.
- jacquesm 8y ago
  > These are people's livelihoods we're talking about here. You can leave off the 'lihood' bit and it is just as true if not more so. Recessions kill people.
itgoon 8y ago
I've been through a few of these, and I disagree with everyone else. It's a game. At least, it's a lot healthier to think of it as a game. Life is full of ups and downs, some of them economic. Yes, this is just another one. Don't despair, things get better. Value your family and friends, and everything will be okay.
- jessaustin 8y ago
  It may be that the game paradigm leads to more prosperity than the "woe is me no lighthearted talk allowed" paradigm. It occurs to me that we still haven't done a damn thing about 2B2F... those banks with the public backstop seem far more dangerous than some temporary tariffs.

throwaway5752 8y ago

This, in a nutshell, is why the human condition is so tragic. This won't be "interesting", believe me. Watch what happens when the body of startups funded by global pools of capital (which are the underlying source of capital for VCs) sees the NPV of software startups vanish as lower expected investment returns smack up against higher risk-free rates. The current software economy is incredibly leveraged and intertwined. Most startups are not cashflow positive, and they're explanation for that is that they have low CapEx. However, it's all been transferred to OpEx that is the web of mutuality between them. There is a huge body of low quality startups that are going to stop paying monthly Slack, Git(hub/lab), Trello/Atlassian, Twilio, Mongo, every other monthly-billed service, and put the breaks on AWS/GCE/et al spending. The AWS spending, for example, will result in layoffs in Seattle, which will lead to people forced out of their homes and forced sales for losses (which will ruin them financially), and that will result in a cycle of real estate deflation (which, as you saw in 2006, leats to pools of buyers trapped in their home, killing construction and labor mobility). And thankfully we'll have deregulated or de-fanged federal regulators just in time for all of this! WeWork is the obvious first bankruptcy, since they almost entirely exist because of venture funding froth. I don't know who have funded them offhand, but that might result in forced selling of private shares and lower private valuations, with further deflation risks in that sector. Then it will expand to the broader economy. /rant. edit: I worked through both the dot-com and mortgage-backed security fraud crises. They were terrible.

matte_black 8y ago
So when WeWork files for bankruptcy is that the signal to start moving into cash?
- throwaway5752 8y ago
  Sorry for a bit of a meta-reply, but this is kind of the reason for my sadness: there is this sense of isolation/aloofness to your question. The best thing to do is to work hard to prevent this outcome, since it's less than zero sum. I am sorry, but even if I knew your financial situation and goals I wouldn't want to offer investing opinions.