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On one hand, this article seems to make a lot of sense. OTOH, INTC is up 40% in the past year. It seems likely that there are quite a few parties out there who

On one hand, this article seems to make a lot of sense. OTOH, INTC is up 40% in the past year. It seems likely that there are quite a few parties out there who probably don't agree with this analysis.

xenadu02 8y ago
Yes and Microsoft profits were rising at the same time the web, iPhone, Chrome, et al were eating out its foundation. Bell Labs invented VoIP; AT&T or Verzion could have built Skype at any time. Xerox and PARC. RCA and LCDs. This sad story repeats itself continuously. That's the whole problem with the innovator's dilemma and why so many people look up to Apple - one of the few companies able to cannibalize an existing product line in pursuit of the future. Mac & (Lisa/Apple II), iPhone & iPod. It is extremely rare to be able to see the future coming, time it correctly, then undercut your current extremely successful product line while you prepare for the change. Everything in business school 101 screams "NO!". Managers are paid to optimize returns and the current business. Ben is 100% correct about Intel's history. They clung to their identity as a DRAM company and it almost killed them. This time they're clinging to their identity as an integrated processor company when most of the world wants fully or slightly customized SOCs. Intel directly passed on the most lucrative mobile SOC business (iPhone). It is unfortunate that Intel missed this second opportunity. Maybe new management can pivot, but whoever it is will only have about 90 days to make the change.* * You typically have about 90 days where you're still an "outsider" who can proffer opinions on problems with current practices. For management this is also the best time to make sweeping changes since most people will be willing to jump on the new direction. IMHO after that you have to spend a few years building credibility to get things done without people ignoring or sabotaging you.
- ajross 8y ago
  > Yes and Microsoft profits were rising at the same time the web, iPhone, Chrome, et al were eating out its foundation. So... the scenario you have in mind for Intel's coming collapse is... a not-quite-as-dominant major industry player in the coming decades? Microsoft got passed by Google and Facebook and Amazon, sure. They're still making, y'know, crazy bank.
- patrickg_zill 8y ago
  I don't know about the other examples but Xerox made all their money back on Parc and then some, via the laser printer patent iirc. They did miss the boat on personal computing though...
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xenadu02 8y ago

Yes and Microsoft profits were rising at the same time the web, iPhone, Chrome, et al were eating out its foundation. Bell Labs invented VoIP; AT&T or Verzion could have built Skype at any time. Xerox and PARC. RCA and LCDs. This sad story repeats itself continuously. That's the whole problem with the innovator's dilemma and why so many people look up to Apple - one of the few companies able to cannibalize an existing product line in pursuit of the future. Mac & (Lisa/Apple II), iPhone & iPod. It is extremely rare to be able to see the future coming, time it correctly, then undercut your current extremely successful product line while you prepare for the change. Everything in business school 101 screams "NO!". Managers are paid to optimize returns and the current business. Ben is 100% correct about Intel's history. They clung to their identity as a DRAM company and it almost killed them. This time they're clinging to their identity as an integrated processor company when most of the world wants fully or slightly customized SOCs. Intel directly passed on the most lucrative mobile SOC business (iPhone). It is unfortunate that Intel missed this second opportunity. Maybe new management can pivot, but whoever it is will only have about 90 days to make the change.* * You typically have about 90 days where you're still an "outsider" who can proffer opinions on problems with current practices. For management this is also the best time to make sweeping changes since most people will be willing to jump on the new direction. IMHO after that you have to spend a few years building credibility to get things done without people ignoring or sabotaging you.

ajross 8y ago
> Yes and Microsoft profits were rising at the same time the web, iPhone, Chrome, et al were eating out its foundation. So... the scenario you have in mind for Intel's coming collapse is... a not-quite-as-dominant major industry player in the coming decades? Microsoft got passed by Google and Facebook and Amazon, sure. They're still making, y'know, crazy bank.
patrickg_zill 8y ago
I don't know about the other examples but Xerox made all their money back on Parc and then some, via the laser printer patent iirc. They did miss the boat on personal computing though...

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