Can you elaborate more? I'm out of my area here, but it seems like it's only foolish to say that the yield curve isn't an indicator of a possible recession if

Can you elaborate more? I'm out of my area here, but it seems like it's only foolish to say that the yield curve isn't an indicator of a possible recession if we can identify a specific mechanism that typically causes both inversions and recessions, and can also determine that that mechanism is not at play here. Otherwise, it may be that the Fed reducing its budget sheet is irrelevant, or is a factor that is only exacerbating factors that were already at play, or even, perhaps, that short term yields exceeding long term yields actually causes recessions.