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I've been hearing this for years. It'll happen when it happens and no one can actually predict. #golong

by madballneek 8y ago

solotronics 8y ago
I always toyed with the idea of taking small positions far out of the money buying puts to hedge against my 401k.
- coliveira 8y ago
  Options are fairly priced. Meaning that they are priced according to the risk. Unless you have some very good reason to use them, they can lead to ruin. This is just another way to say that it is like playing in the casino. On the other hand, if you have a lot of gains in the stock market, using options may be a small price to keep your piece of mind. Just understand that they give you no clear edge.
  - jedberg 8y ago
    If used correctly, options are like buying an insurance policy. You pay a small amount up front to hedge against large future losses. Hence where the term "hedge fund" comes from.
cityhomesteader 8y ago
Pretty much every finance site - marketwatch, wsj, cnbc, bloomberg, zerohedge, etc along with the peter schiffs/etc clickbait it. For some reason, nytimes paywalled clickbait is constantly spammed here. The inverted yield curve. There are thousands of articles about the inverted yield curve. The death cross. The black swan event. All just voodoo clickbait nonsense. Also, I love how the nytimes say "wall st is concerned" as if they knew what wall st was thinking and most importantly, they think that wall st is one entity. A lot of players make up wall st. If any of these people at these news companies knew what wall st was thinking, they wouldn't be working at news companies making pathetic union salaries. They'd worked in finance and retire before they were 25. Simply put, when the big players want there to be a recession, there will be a recession. Markets are human created and controlled by humans. It isn't a natural entity following the laws of nature. The invisible hand of the market doesn't mean that the hand controlling the market doesn't exist. It just means that us mere peasants aren't allowed to see it.
- qubex 8y ago
  I’m impressed by your post’s combination of cynicism and conspiracy-theory-type reasoning, compounded by the agency fallacy.
  - cityhomesteader 8y ago
    > I’m impressed by your post’s combination of cynicism I'm impressed by your naivety. Where's the cynicism? I've worked on wall street/finance and I've read finance publications for decades. It's not cynicism, it's experience. > conspiracy-theory-type reasoning What's the conspiracy? > compounded by the agency fallacy. I'd advise you to give Logic 101 another try. Also look up ad hominem while at it.
    - 18pfsmt 8y ago
      >>Simply put, when the big players want there to be a recession, there will be a recession. >What's the conspiracy? According to your first comment, the "big players" are conspiring to cause recessions when they see fit.
      - jessaustin 8y ago
        A more charitable reading would have recessions as inevitable (which, in fact, they are) with only the timing of them controlled by "big players".
    - dang 8y ago
      We've banned this account for violating the HN guidelines. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - voice_of_reason 8y ago
    Your Pavlovially conditioned denigration of quite believable assumption that some entities have huge amount of influence on the economy is even more impressive. Never tired of employing good old "it's a conspiracy theory" conversation stopper, do you?

I've been hearing this for years. It'll happen when it happens and no one can actually predict. #golong

solotronics 8y ago

I always toyed with the idea of taking small positions far out of the money buying puts to hedge against my 401k.

coliveira 8y ago
Options are fairly priced. Meaning that they are priced according to the risk. Unless you have some very good reason to use them, they can lead to ruin. This is just another way to say that it is like playing in the casino. On the other hand, if you have a lot of gains in the stock market, using options may be a small price to keep your piece of mind. Just understand that they give you no clear edge.
- jedberg 8y ago
  If used correctly, options are like buying an insurance policy. You pay a small amount up front to hedge against large future losses. Hence where the term "hedge fund" comes from.

cityhomesteader 8y ago

Pretty much every finance site - marketwatch, wsj, cnbc, bloomberg, zerohedge, etc along with the peter schiffs/etc clickbait it. For some reason, nytimes paywalled clickbait is constantly spammed here. The inverted yield curve. There are thousands of articles about the inverted yield curve. The death cross. The black swan event. All just voodoo clickbait nonsense. Also, I love how the nytimes say "wall st is concerned" as if they knew what wall st was thinking and most importantly, they think that wall st is one entity. A lot of players make up wall st. If any of these people at these news companies knew what wall st was thinking, they wouldn't be working at news companies making pathetic union salaries. They'd worked in finance and retire before they were 25. Simply put, when the big players want there to be a recession, there will be a recession. Markets are human created and controlled by humans. It isn't a natural entity following the laws of nature. The invisible hand of the market doesn't mean that the hand controlling the market doesn't exist. It just means that us mere peasants aren't allowed to see it.

qubex 8y ago
I’m impressed by your post’s combination of cynicism and conspiracy-theory-type reasoning, compounded by the agency fallacy.
- cityhomesteader 8y ago
  > I’m impressed by your post’s combination of cynicism I'm impressed by your naivety. Where's the cynicism? I've worked on wall street/finance and I've read finance publications for decades. It's not cynicism, it's experience. > conspiracy-theory-type reasoning What's the conspiracy? > compounded by the agency fallacy. I'd advise you to give Logic 101 another try. Also look up ad hominem while at it.
  - 18pfsmt 8y ago
    >>Simply put, when the big players want there to be a recession, there will be a recession. >What's the conspiracy? According to your first comment, the "big players" are conspiring to cause recessions when they see fit.
    - jessaustin 8y ago
      A more charitable reading would have recessions as inevitable (which, in fact, they are) with only the timing of them controlled by "big players".
  - dang 8y ago
    We've banned this account for violating the HN guidelines. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- voice_of_reason 8y ago
  Your Pavlovially conditioned denigration of quite believable assumption that some entities have huge amount of influence on the economy is even more impressive. Never tired of employing good old "it's a conspiracy theory" conversation stopper, do you?