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> People are doing everything on smartphones they used to do on "personal computers", the form factor doesn't change that. I don't think folks are doing progra

> People are doing everything on smartphones they used to do on "personal computers", the form factor doesn't change that. I don't think folks are doing programming and graphic design on their phones...

macintux 8y ago
True, but we've gone from millions of people using PCs to billions using smartphones, and a majority of the people using PCs never used them for programming or graphic design.
- michaelmrose 8y ago
  There are billions of pcs.
  - macintux 8y ago
    There are certainly more than a billion PCs in existence. I'm skeptical there are much more than a billion PC users. Right now it takes about 4 years to sell one billion PCs[1]. Considering that includes business sales, a significant chunk of that includes people with multiple PCs. Compare that to smartphones, which sell well over a billion per year[2]. [1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-forecast-for-tablets-laptops-and-desktop-pcs/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-... [2]: https://www.investopedia.com/news/smartphone-sales-be-flat-yoy-2018canaccord/ https://www.investopedia.com/news/smartphone-sales-be-flat-y...
    - perl4ever 8y ago
      A "billion per year" is clearly unsustainable, given the world population. I mean, shouldn't we step back and observe that clearly if they're selling at this rate, some grave defect in human behavior is being exploited to the extent that something will dramatically collapse soon? Also keeping in mind the end of Moore's law as people have mentioned.
    - michaelmrose 8y ago
      You started by claiming 1-several orders of magnitude difference in pc users to mobile "millions vs billions" which is clearly nonsense. Now you are using sales as a proxy for users which is nearly as false. People buy and rapidly dispose of phones for a variety of reasons. They break, are lost, get stolen. Having a new model is a status symbol. Current models are supported by the manufacturer for only a few years on the Android side. Newer models are significantly better than last years. PCs easily last 5-7 years. Decreasing revenue from new models annually doesn't imply that the users or the platform is no longer relevant. Reports of the death of the pc are greatly exaggerated.
nhaehnle 8y ago
Not even writing text. The interface is just terrible for that. Obviously a day may come where people plug their phones into docking stations that are equipped with a keyboard and a monitor, but it seems likely that we'll stick to lightweight laptops for a long time.

macintux 8y ago

True, but we've gone from millions of people using PCs to billions using smartphones, and a majority of the people using PCs never used them for programming or graphic design.

michaelmrose 8y ago
There are billions of pcs.
- macintux 8y ago
  There are certainly more than a billion PCs in existence. I'm skeptical there are much more than a billion PC users. Right now it takes about 4 years to sell one billion PCs[1]. Considering that includes business sales, a significant chunk of that includes people with multiple PCs. Compare that to smartphones, which sell well over a billion per year[2]. [1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-forecast-for-tablets-laptops-and-desktop-pcs/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-... [2]: https://www.investopedia.com/news/smartphone-sales-be-flat-yoy-2018canaccord/ https://www.investopedia.com/news/smartphone-sales-be-flat-y...
  - perl4ever 8y ago
    A "billion per year" is clearly unsustainable, given the world population. I mean, shouldn't we step back and observe that clearly if they're selling at this rate, some grave defect in human behavior is being exploited to the extent that something will dramatically collapse soon? Also keeping in mind the end of Moore's law as people have mentioned.
  - michaelmrose 8y ago
    You started by claiming 1-several orders of magnitude difference in pc users to mobile "millions vs billions" which is clearly nonsense. Now you are using sales as a proxy for users which is nearly as false. People buy and rapidly dispose of phones for a variety of reasons. They break, are lost, get stolen. Having a new model is a status symbol. Current models are supported by the manufacturer for only a few years on the Android side. Newer models are significantly better than last years. PCs easily last 5-7 years. Decreasing revenue from new models annually doesn't imply that the users or the platform is no longer relevant. Reports of the death of the pc are greatly exaggerated.

nhaehnle 8y ago

Not even writing text. The interface is just terrible for that. Obviously a day may come where people plug their phones into docking stations that are equipped with a keyboard and a monitor, but it seems likely that we'll stick to lightweight laptops for a long time.