6 ms·

The term “PC” refers to both desktops and laptops. Both are in decline as general purpose computing moves to the smartphone.

userbinator 8y ago
More like "as general purpose computing dies, replaced by the smartphone."
- huebnerob 8y ago
  People are doing everything on smartphones they used to do on "personal computers", the form factor doesn't change that. As far as extensibility and/or openness of the platform goes, that may define general purpose computing for you but the industry has abundantly shown that it doesn't for most people.
  - AnIdiotOnTheNet 8y ago
    I don't know about the other poster's opinion, but mine is that it isn't a personal computer unless I can program it with itself. The ability for anyone to write and distribute software was what made PCs great. Current smartphones fight the idea that the user can own their device and can do whatever they want with it, preferring a walled garden approach that's helpful to consumers, but not personal computing.
    - dvfjsdhgfv 8y ago
      It's a disturbing trend but I see some dim hope. Everywhere across the world the importance of programming education is recognized. The BBC:micro is probably the epitome of this, with the the aim of the entire population knowing how to program a device at some point in a future. The people who learned to program in this way will appreciate the ability to control a device in this way and will naturally steer towards platform allowing them to do so. Moreover, even Apple is changing these days. Making Swift available is a step towards more ubiquitous app development. And with Swift Playgrounds you can learn to actually program on your device, even though it's not the same as controlling it the way we're used to. It's not unthinkable they make further concessions and at some point iOS devices could be programmable to a certain extent.
    - lioeters 8y ago
      I'm also of the opinion that current smartphones are not "personal computers" in the original sense of the term. The power is in the hands of the OS and apps, they are the real users, making the decisions of how to use the computer - while the consumers are just that, consuming programs that other people/companies designed.
  - lordfoom 8y ago
    > People are doing everything on smartphones they used to do on "personal computers", the form factor doesn't change that. I don't think folks are doing programming and graphic design on their phones...
    - macintux 8y ago
      True, but we've gone from millions of people using PCs to billions using smartphones, and a majority of the people using PCs never used them for programming or graphic design.
      - michaelmrose 8y ago
        There are billions of pcs.
        macintux 8y ago
        There are certainly more than a billion PCs in existence. I'm skeptical there are much more than a billion PC users. Right now it takes about 4 years to sell one billion PCs[1]. Considering that includes business sales, a significant chunk of that includes people with multiple PCs. Compare that to smartphones, which sell well over a billion per year[2]. [1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-forecast-for-tablets-laptops-and-desktop-pcs/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-... [2]: https://www.investopedia.com/news/smartphone-sales-be-flat-yoy-2018canaccord/ https://www.investopedia.com/news/smartphone-sales-be-flat-y...
        perl4ever 8y ago
        A "billion per year" is clearly unsustainable, given the world population. I mean, shouldn't we step back and observe that clearly if they're selling at this rate, some grave defect in human behavior is being exploited to the extent that something will dramatically collapse soon? Also keeping in mind the end of Moore's law as people have mentioned.
        michaelmrose 8y ago
pjmlp 8y ago
Even if they do, it is just as form factor, everyone doing serious work with 21" screens or higher will be using docking stations and will be business as usual.
mrec 8y ago
Is that an absolute decline now, or just relative? (I'm asking about usage, not sales - I know the latter have fallen off a cliff since Moore's Law topped out.)
- huebnerob 8y ago
  https://bgr.com/2016/11/02/internet-usage-desktop-vs-mobile/ https://bgr.com/2016/11/02/internet-usage-desktop-vs-mobile/ Mobile internet usage worldwide blew past desktop usage in October of 2016 and hasn't slowed down since, and even that's just looking at web page views. I'd argue that holistically, smartphones have been the dominant technology platform for many years even before that, since apps are the primary interface to most services on the platform.
  - dvfjsdhgfv 8y ago
    This may mean so many things... From "people who use desktops/laptops do it in a work environment and use the Internet less" to "mobile apps use bandwidth more intensively than local apps (which is pretty normal in an office environment)"
  - mrec 8y ago
    Thanks, but that doesn't answer the question. It's showing percentages, not absolute numbers.
  - oblio 8y ago
    Isn't the web the biggest platform still? All platform users use web sites/web apps, even though on mobile the percentages are a bit smaller, for now, because of mobile apps.
gsich 8y ago
I wouldn't overestimate the impact of smartphones. It's just that PCs (both in desktop and laptops) don't need upgrades anymore from year to year. You can use your PC from 2012 (Intel i5-2xxx if you remember), possible even farther back and you'd still be fine for almost all tasks. Gamers and other high-performance tasks are a niche. The biggest performance gain for these machines is a SSD, not a new PC. The same will happen to smartphones. You can already see it. Manufacturers trying so hard to invent features nobody needs, just to have an excuse to buy a new device.
- dvfjsdhgfv 8y ago
  That's the point. The so-called "post-PC era" has never arrived. Personally I don't know any adult who doesn't own a computer. We no longer upgrade so often but we use them on a daily basis. Pretty much anyone doing any kind of white-collar work will use a PC (that includes Macs...) Your needs outside of the work environment will vary, but people are still not throwing their laptops away just because they use their phones more often.
  - oblio 8y ago
    The question is: do new adults (think 18-24 year olds) buy desktops or laptops?
    - apetresc 8y ago
      At least one, yes? There's no university student without one, and there's no white-collar worker without one. Literally nobody is typing up their 10-page essay on their phone.
      - oblio 8y ago
        Tablets + keyboards.
        michaelmrose 8y ago
        Tablets remain truly mediocre devices, in the case of Android running a mediocre os. - garbage multi tasking - slightly laggy typing - no real ability for multiple apps to work on the same data -10" is still a tiny screen and almost as unwieldy as a small laptop 7" is too tiny yet still not pocket size. Since a tablet usually does not have by definition a cellular modem it can't replace your phone plus the cameras and microphone normally blow. I find the idea that most people are using a tablet in place of a real computer laughable.
farsight-1000 8y ago
Mobile sales are plateauing now as well. Moore's law has hit them just as hard. It would be foolish for Intel to dump everything to jump into a market just as it matures and peaks.

userbinator 8y ago

More like "as general purpose computing dies, replaced by the smartphone."

huebnerob 8y ago
People are doing everything on smartphones they used to do on "personal computers", the form factor doesn't change that. As far as extensibility and/or openness of the platform goes, that may define general purpose computing for you but the industry has abundantly shown that it doesn't for most people.
- AnIdiotOnTheNet 8y ago
  I don't know about the other poster's opinion, but mine is that it isn't a personal computer unless I can program it with itself. The ability for anyone to write and distribute software was what made PCs great. Current smartphones fight the idea that the user can own their device and can do whatever they want with it, preferring a walled garden approach that's helpful to consumers, but not personal computing.
  - dvfjsdhgfv 8y ago
    It's a disturbing trend but I see some dim hope. Everywhere across the world the importance of programming education is recognized. The BBC:micro is probably the epitome of this, with the the aim of the entire population knowing how to program a device at some point in a future. The people who learned to program in this way will appreciate the ability to control a device in this way and will naturally steer towards platform allowing them to do so. Moreover, even Apple is changing these days. Making Swift available is a step towards more ubiquitous app development. And with Swift Playgrounds you can learn to actually program on your device, even though it's not the same as controlling it the way we're used to. It's not unthinkable they make further concessions and at some point iOS devices could be programmable to a certain extent.
  - lioeters 8y ago
    I'm also of the opinion that current smartphones are not "personal computers" in the original sense of the term. The power is in the hands of the OS and apps, they are the real users, making the decisions of how to use the computer - while the consumers are just that, consuming programs that other people/companies designed.
- lordfoom 8y ago
  > People are doing everything on smartphones they used to do on "personal computers", the form factor doesn't change that. I don't think folks are doing programming and graphic design on their phones...
  - macintux 8y ago
    True, but we've gone from millions of people using PCs to billions using smartphones, and a majority of the people using PCs never used them for programming or graphic design.
    - michaelmrose 8y ago
      There are billions of pcs.
      - macintux 8y ago
        There are certainly more than a billion PCs in existence. I'm skeptical there are much more than a billion PC users. Right now it takes about 4 years to sell one billion PCs[1]. Considering that includes business sales, a significant chunk of that includes people with multiple PCs. Compare that to smartphones, which sell well over a billion per year[2]. [1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-forecast-for-tablets-laptops-and-desktop-pcs/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-... [2]: https://www.investopedia.com/news/smartphone-sales-be-flat-yoy-2018canaccord/ https://www.investopedia.com/news/smartphone-sales-be-flat-y...
        perl4ever 8y ago
        A "billion per year" is clearly unsustainable, given the world population. I mean, shouldn't we step back and observe that clearly if they're selling at this rate, some grave defect in human behavior is being exploited to the extent that something will dramatically collapse soon? Also keeping in mind the end of Moore's law as people have mentioned.
        michaelmrose 8y ago

pjmlp 8y ago

Even if they do, it is just as form factor, everyone doing serious work with 21" screens or higher will be using docking stations and will be business as usual.

mrec 8y ago

Is that an absolute decline now, or just relative? (I'm asking about usage, not sales - I know the latter have fallen off a cliff since Moore's Law topped out.)

huebnerob 8y ago
https://bgr.com/2016/11/02/internet-usage-desktop-vs-mobile/ https://bgr.com/2016/11/02/internet-usage-desktop-vs-mobile/ Mobile internet usage worldwide blew past desktop usage in October of 2016 and hasn't slowed down since, and even that's just looking at web page views. I'd argue that holistically, smartphones have been the dominant technology platform for many years even before that, since apps are the primary interface to most services on the platform.
- dvfjsdhgfv 8y ago
  This may mean so many things... From "people who use desktops/laptops do it in a work environment and use the Internet less" to "mobile apps use bandwidth more intensively than local apps (which is pretty normal in an office environment)"
- mrec 8y ago
  Thanks, but that doesn't answer the question. It's showing percentages, not absolute numbers.
- oblio 8y ago
  Isn't the web the biggest platform still? All platform users use web sites/web apps, even though on mobile the percentages are a bit smaller, for now, because of mobile apps.

gsich 8y ago

I wouldn't overestimate the impact of smartphones. It's just that PCs (both in desktop and laptops) don't need upgrades anymore from year to year. You can use your PC from 2012 (Intel i5-2xxx if you remember), possible even farther back and you'd still be fine for almost all tasks. Gamers and other high-performance tasks are a niche. The biggest performance gain for these machines is a SSD, not a new PC. The same will happen to smartphones. You can already see it. Manufacturers trying so hard to invent features nobody needs, just to have an excuse to buy a new device.

dvfjsdhgfv 8y ago
That's the point. The so-called "post-PC era" has never arrived. Personally I don't know any adult who doesn't own a computer. We no longer upgrade so often but we use them on a daily basis. Pretty much anyone doing any kind of white-collar work will use a PC (that includes Macs...) Your needs outside of the work environment will vary, but people are still not throwing their laptops away just because they use their phones more often.
- oblio 8y ago
  The question is: do new adults (think 18-24 year olds) buy desktops or laptops?
  - apetresc 8y ago
    At least one, yes? There's no university student without one, and there's no white-collar worker without one. Literally nobody is typing up their 10-page essay on their phone.
    - oblio 8y ago
      Tablets + keyboards.
      - michaelmrose 8y ago
        Tablets remain truly mediocre devices, in the case of Android running a mediocre os. - garbage multi tasking - slightly laggy typing - no real ability for multiple apps to work on the same data -10" is still a tiny screen and almost as unwieldy as a small laptop 7" is too tiny yet still not pocket size. Since a tablet usually does not have by definition a cellular modem it can't replace your phone plus the cameras and microphone normally blow. I find the idea that most people are using a tablet in place of a real computer laughable.

farsight-1000 8y ago

Mobile sales are plateauing now as well. Moore's law has hit them just as hard. It would be foolish for Intel to dump everything to jump into a market just as it matures and peaks.