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I think it's valuable to make you and everyone else more afraid. I'm constantly astounded at how little people care about the very real possibility of nuclear w

I think it's valuable to make you and everyone else more afraid. I'm constantly astounded at how little people care about the very real possibility of nuclear war. It was on everyone's mind when I was growing up in the 80s, but when the USSR collapsed, the concern evaporated even though the arsenals very much did not. Avoiding nuclear war should be one of our top priorities (and was one of the major factors deciding my 2016 vote), yet it's hardly ever discussed. It's a bit crazy.

nostrademons 8y ago
What can you actually do to avoid a nuclear war, though? I mean, aside from not giving the big red button to a guy who brags about the size of his big red button, there's not much. And I doubt your vote did any more good in that regard than my vote did. (There's probably a sizable fraction of America who actively wants nuclear war because we have more nukes than anyone else. The idea that your loss might not actually be my gain doesn't seem to compute for a lot of people.)
- acjohnson55 8y ago
  > [...] not giving the big red button to a guy who brags about the size of his big red button [...] That's your answer. By no means are Trump voters illiterate rubes. Their median income exceeded Hillary voters. People need to be reminded the stakes.
  - LyndsySimon 8y ago
    MAD is premised upon both actors believing that the other would respond in kind. In that light, Trump's boasting is... well, logical.
- mikeash 8y ago
  Individually, our votes don’t matter much, but if a lot of voters cared enough for it to become a major issue, politicians would follow suit.
- monort 8y ago
  Mutual nuclear disarmament is the obvious answer (lookup the START treaty), unfortunately it's a slow process and hopefully there will be another president by the renewal time, as Trump doesn't like the treaty. Regarding the access to the button, would you prefer to have egoistic, emotional man or rational and cold one, like Gen. Buck from "Dr. Strangelove"? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuP6KbIsNK4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuP6KbIsNK4
bryanlarsen 8y ago
According to experts, the probability of nuclear war in any given year is around 1-2%, and those estimates seem fairly plausible to me. Even if they're off by an order of magnitude, it means that although highly unlikely in a single year, it means that it's fairly probable to happen within a single century. One argument against those odds is that it gives a probability of nuclear war happening between 1945 and 2018 well above 50%. But given the several very close calls we've had I think that number seems very real. Remember that both the Cavaliers and Donald Trump had odds around the 20% mark in 2016, yet both won. Unlikely does not mean impossible. So I agree, lowering both the probability and severity of nuclear war should be a top priority for politicians and those who elect them. Maybe not as high as global warming, but close behind it IMO.
- mikeash 8y ago
  That’s interesting. I’ve guesstimated the annual risk at about 1% myself. As you say, the near misses we’ve had do seem to indicate that the probability is decently high.

nostrademons 8y ago

What can you actually do to avoid a nuclear war, though? I mean, aside from not giving the big red button to a guy who brags about the size of his big red button, there's not much. And I doubt your vote did any more good in that regard than my vote did. (There's probably a sizable fraction of America who actively wants nuclear war because we have more nukes than anyone else. The idea that your loss might not actually be my gain doesn't seem to compute for a lot of people.)

acjohnson55 8y ago
> [...] not giving the big red button to a guy who brags about the size of his big red button [...] That's your answer. By no means are Trump voters illiterate rubes. Their median income exceeded Hillary voters. People need to be reminded the stakes.
- LyndsySimon 8y ago
  MAD is premised upon both actors believing that the other would respond in kind. In that light, Trump's boasting is... well, logical.
mikeash 8y ago
Individually, our votes don’t matter much, but if a lot of voters cared enough for it to become a major issue, politicians would follow suit.
monort 8y ago
Mutual nuclear disarmament is the obvious answer (lookup the START treaty), unfortunately it's a slow process and hopefully there will be another president by the renewal time, as Trump doesn't like the treaty. Regarding the access to the button, would you prefer to have egoistic, emotional man or rational and cold one, like Gen. Buck from "Dr. Strangelove"? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuP6KbIsNK4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuP6KbIsNK4

bryanlarsen 8y ago

According to experts, the probability of nuclear war in any given year is around 1-2%, and those estimates seem fairly plausible to me. Even if they're off by an order of magnitude, it means that although highly unlikely in a single year, it means that it's fairly probable to happen within a single century. One argument against those odds is that it gives a probability of nuclear war happening between 1945 and 2018 well above 50%. But given the several very close calls we've had I think that number seems very real. Remember that both the Cavaliers and Donald Trump had odds around the 20% mark in 2016, yet both won. Unlikely does not mean impossible. So I agree, lowering both the probability and severity of nuclear war should be a top priority for politicians and those who elect them. Maybe not as high as global warming, but close behind it IMO.

mikeash 8y ago
That’s interesting. I’ve guesstimated the annual risk at about 1% myself. As you say, the near misses we’ve had do seem to indicate that the probability is decently high.